Big gap in time between stage 3 and stage 4. They should have just said "to be announced".
- Thread starter chico bill
- Start date
Coronavirus - In the DR
- Status
Big gap in time between stage 3 and stage 4. They should have just said "to be announced".
All of this will be changed and moved around 100 times at least
Previously posed as a question earlier on in this thread line regarding those who partake in hookah, vaping, and other forms of smokable ingestables:
Virus ataca fumadores de hookah.....
listindiario.com
Virus ataca fumadores de hookah.....
El coronavirus ataca con más fuerza a fumadores de hookah y adultos con comorbilidades
Los pacientes jovenes que fuman hookah y los adultos que en promedio tienen 65 años, y que llegan con problemas de diabetes e hipertension ar­
listindiario.com
You think the restaurants can survive closed for 4 months ? No many will be unable to reopen. So when the government counts the benefits of staying closed I think they will reconsider
A knife through the heart and their employees as well.
It has been stated that due to foreign economic struggles, money remittances would grind to a halt. Western Union and Caribe Express have long lines each and every day. Persons are still drinking. Persons are still having sex. The money is still coming in from some place.
serious question here
as a senior with COPD, double bypass.
Supposing that as of May 25th the SOE is lifted and the country starts opening for the new normal, and there is no vaccine for Wuhan virus, will (I/others like me) be any safer or even feel any safer than I do today.
Frankly I don't believe so
According to reports from the so called experts (as they keep publishing new symptoms to watch for almost every day). little systematic testing, and the fact that many for the test kits return false results or just don't work. Also reported that just because you survived it does not mean that you have immunity (another ambiguity from the experts). and at last the experts do not agree on how it is even passed on, person to person doorknobs etc etc etc.
It is impossible to remain under lockdown until there is a vaccine (no vaccine for Herpes/AIDs/many others) and still have an economy no matter the country. So at the point countries open up for the new normal and open their borders we will for the most part have the present situation again.The US congress is now eyeing guaranteed income (which some countries have already discovered did not work even with a stable economy). well known fact you cant print your way out of the problem (reference Venezuela, Argentina).
So in summation I won't feel any safer given the above conditions now or 6 months from now. Too many people with no symptoms that are capable of infecting me this is especially true in having the disease does not confer immunity.
My centavo for the day.
www.nytimes.com
www.stamfordadvocate.com
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...y-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus It's unclear whether people who recover from COVID-19 will be immune to reinfection from the coronavirus and, if so, how long that immunity will last.
as a senior with COPD, double bypass.
Supposing that as of May 25th the SOE is lifted and the country starts opening for the new normal, and there is no vaccine for Wuhan virus, will (I/others like me) be any safer or even feel any safer than I do today.
Frankly I don't believe so
According to reports from the so called experts (as they keep publishing new symptoms to watch for almost every day). little systematic testing, and the fact that many for the test kits return false results or just don't work. Also reported that just because you survived it does not mean that you have immunity (another ambiguity from the experts). and at last the experts do not agree on how it is even passed on, person to person doorknobs etc etc etc.
It is impossible to remain under lockdown until there is a vaccine (no vaccine for Herpes/AIDs/many others) and still have an economy no matter the country. So at the point countries open up for the new normal and open their borders we will for the most part have the present situation again.The US congress is now eyeing guaranteed income (which some countries have already discovered did not work even with a stable economy). well known fact you cant print your way out of the problem (reference Venezuela, Argentina).
So in summation I won't feel any safer given the above conditions now or 6 months from now. Too many people with no symptoms that are capable of infecting me this is especially true in having the disease does not confer immunity.
My centavo for the day.
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Are we close to flattening the curve of coronavirus cases in the Dominican Republic?
<p>After almost two months of the arrival of the coronavirus in the Dominican Republic, the country registers 5,926 positive cases distributed in all its demarcations, reports the 37th bulletin of follow-up to COVID-19 issued by the Ministry of Public Health. However, from April 19 (bulletin 31)...
dominicantoday.com
After almost two months of the arrival of the coronavirus in the Dominican Republic, the country registers 5,926 positive cases distributed in all its demarcations, reports the 37th bulletin of follow-up to COVID-19 issued by the Ministry of Public Health.
However, from April 19 (bulletin 31) to April 25 (bulletin 37), COVID-19 has recorded a slight reduction daily in the number of those reported. However, Dr. Carlos Manuel Feliz Cuello, a health epidemiologist, explains that such data does not represent a real drop in infections by the virus, but that the number of positive cases is related to the daily tests carried out in the country.
Feliz Cuello maintains that the cases reported daily are “credible,” but “with an overdraft of more than four times the amount confirmed daily.”
He claims that the exact number of people who have died from the disease is unknown, as well as those infected “due to the inadequate strategy that has been followed.”
“Those who have been reporting have been clinical cases with positive results, but the truth is that the pandemic has covered the entire national territory, only Elías Piña was missing and already has confirmed cases, to the point that we have provinces with more than one hundred cases,” says Feliz Cuello.
He affirms that the country is not yet close to flattening the coronavirus spread curve because the cases reported daily as positive are still higher than the patients who exceed the disease. “When the cases reported as discharged are greater than the cases reported as positive with an interval of 48 to 72 hours, then it can be said that we are facing elimination of the contagion curve,” said the doctor.
Likewise, Feliz Cuello adds that the increase or decrease in positive patients will depend on the strategy to work with suspected cases based on the number of tests that are performed “the greater the number of tests performed, the greater the number of cases.”
He adds that another element to take into account is the proximity of the presidential elections arranged for next July 5, which will lead to a “polarization of the two largest forces, which, in one way or another, will condition the way in which report the cases,” he said.
Yes I am so wondering WTF you don't see such lines in Caribe / Vimenca during normal days, and these lines are LONG, and EVERY DAY.
¿Tiempo de reabrir la economía?
Todas las noticias del acontecer nacional de la República Dominicana y el resto del mundo.
www.elcaribe.com.do
The pressure on the Government is intense and growing. It has been 40 days since President Medina announced a series of social distancing measures that included the pause in operations of companies from most economic sectors and the sending to their homes of more than 3 million workers. The Government has sought resources down to the stones to make cash transfers to most of the workers who have been asked to stay home. When this request takes place in democratic regimes and economies with high informality, it is difficult to keep people and their economy in prolonged quarantine.
Nobody, absolutely nobody in the country, would like to reopen the economy more than President Medina. First, because the longer the transitional cessation of activities lasts, the greater the erosion of economic growth and the less the reduction of poverty. But also, because the more the pause is extended, the lower the collections and the greater the requirements of public indebtedness to finance a fiscal deficit that will increase due to the lower collection and the greater expense necessary so that millions of Dominicans can count on income that allows them survive the effects of the pandemic.
So why don't you just reopen? Because the President is a responsible, sensitive and humane statesman. Like most governments in the world, the Dominican Republic is monitoring pandemic propagation models on a daily basis, specifically, the one developed by Kermarck and McKendrick in 1927, better known as the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model and which Last April 17, Raúl Ovalle, Vicente de Peña and Francisco Ramírez, three brilliant Dominican economists, used their paper “COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic: We declared war, but… are we winning?”.
This is the most widely used model for evaluating the impact that social distancing policies have on flattening the contagion curve. The structure is simple. First, it assumes that the 10,403,410 Dominicans are susceptible (S) to contract the virus (as of today we don't really know if this is the case; there may be genetically immune people). From there, the narrative is as follows. The first verse says that the number of susceptibles (S) at time “t” drops at a rate of speed that will depend on the probability that a susceptible person will come into effective contact with an infected person. Who is responsible for the contact being "effective", that is, that the infected person "sticks" the virus to the susceptible? Mr. Beta (β). This agent is more likely to achieve its objective of infecting "all the susceptible" the greater the average number of "encounters" that occur between susceptible and infected, and the more transmissible the virus is. Beta loses patience when the hug between a susceptible and an infected replicates the hug of two astronauts in space.
The second verse reveals that the number of active infected increases with the effectiveness of Mr. Beta's work and decreases with Mrs. Gamma (γ), which represents the growth rate of the infected infected (those who recovered and those who died). Since, in the case of coronavirus, the average of the virus incubation period is 14 days, the Gamma value is constant (1/14 days = 0.07142 days). Finally, the model closes with the following verse: the number of removals from day “t” (recovered plus deceased) will be equal to the product of Gamma (γ) and the number of active infected at time “t”. Mathematicians and economists formalize the previous three verses into a system of three differential equations, which we are not going to list here.
For epidemiologists, the key parameter to be determined by the model is the basic reproduction number (Ro), that is, the average number of secondary infections that a new infected person produces. As long as Ro is greater than unity, the epidemic will continue to expand; only when Ro is less than unity will it begin to dissipate. Operating the model, it can be deduced that Ro = β / γ for each susceptible that becomes infected. According to Wu et al, “Nowcasting and Forecasting the Potential Domestic and International Spread of the 2019-nCoV Outbreak Originating in Wuhan, China: a Modeling Study” (The Lancet, Feb. 29, 2020), in the absence of social distancing measures, the basic breeding number of the coronavirus in China was found to be Ro = 2.68, yielding an effective contact rate (β) of 0.19.
The information provided daily by the Ministry of Public Health allows calculating the value of the effective contact rate or contagion rate (β) and the basic number of reproduction (Ro) on a daily basis. In the first graph, we present the daily evolution and the 5-day moving average of the effective contact rate (β) in the Dominican Republic during the period March 2 - April 24, 2020. The green vertical line shows what was coming. taking place before President Danilo Medina's speech on March 18 when he announced the country's social distancing measures and what happened after the announcement of those measures. Between March 2 and March 18, the effective contact rate averaged 0.366, registering a level of 1,218 the day before the measures came into effect. With such a β, no one should be surprised that the basic reproduction number (Ro) of the coronavirus during the period 2 - 18 March averaged 5.12, practically double that estimated by Wu et al for China. The day President Medina announced the social distancing measures, the Ro had reached 9.7. He did not announce them before so as not to alarm the population days before the municipal elections.
What have we observed after the social distancing measures began to be implemented as of March 19? The measures have had and are aimed at reducing mobility and contact and thus subtracting momentum and speed from the effective contact rate (β). In the first graph it can be seen how the level of β has been falling from 0.69 that it registered on March 18 to 0.102 on April 24. Social distancing measures have reduced the effective contact rate, which has allowed the basic number of virus reproduction (Ro) to drop from 9.66 on March 18 to 1.43 on April 24. The second graph shows this dynamic.
Can we sing victory? Ovalle, de Peña and Ramírez, aware that with a 5-day moving average of the basic number of reproduction (Ro) in the neighborhood of 1.50, the pandemic will continue to expand, they urge not to sing it yet and even recommend strengthening and extending the measures current social distancing.
We all know that the Kermarck and McKendrick model that we have been describing is a typical example of "toy models" that often need to be modified in order to more accurately predict "reality". Let's forget the above for a moment and play with the model to determine when the peak in the number of new daily cases would take place, the variable that the Ministry of Public Health publishes in its bulletins daily. We make the caveat that this variable is different from the increase in the number of active infected (I) in the SIR model; remember that the latter deduces from the new daily cases those that are removed that day, because they recovered or died.
We are going to assume, for a first simulation, that the basic reproduction number (Ro) of last April 24, 1,431, remains unchanged and does not drop any further. In this scenario, the model predicts that the peak of new daily cases would be reached on August 13 of this year, with a total of 42,997 new daily cases. In early May 2021, 5.7 million Dominicans, equivalent to 55% of the population, would have been infected. Let no one tear their clothes. Merkel, using a similar model, stated on March 12 that the coronavirus could end up infecting up to 70% of Germans. A month earlier, Professor at the Harvard University School of Public Health, Marc Lipsitch,
If the government, following the recommendations of Ovalle, de Peña and Ramírez, strengthens and extends the current measures of social distancing and thereby manages to further reduce the effective contact rate (β) and, consequently, the basic number of reproduction ( Ro) fell, for a second simulation, to 1,226, the model predicts that the peak of new daily cases would be reached on September 17, 2020, with a total of 17,332 new daily cases. At the end of August 2021, 37% of the Dominican population would have been infected by the coronavirus.
I am sure that most of those who are reading this article, must be thinking that I have lost my mind doing simulations with a model that does not even come to foolishness.
I would perfectly understand the reaction. The research team of the Fundación Economía y Desarrollo, some of the authors of the article by Ovalle, de Peña and Ramírez, and the undersigned, using Microsoft Teams so as not to affect (β), reviewed the results over and over again and confirmed that these they are what generates the model. Can we affirm that the model is nonsense because it distances itself exorbitantly from "reality"?
Attachments
I do not know if they have noticed, but the canonical model of SIR epidemiology developed by Kermarck and McKendrick does not introduce in any of their dynamic equations the variable number of tests carried out. "The reality" from which the prediction of the model is distanced is one that is built day by day from the tests carried out in the country. The SIR model, although it does not say so, implicitly assumes a permanent and daily test of all those susceptible, that is, the total population minus the active infected, the recovered and the deceased, something that no country in the world has achieved. Imagine, for a moment, that we could instantly test the remaining 10,382,126 Dominicans who have not been tested to date. Would anyone think that the number of new daily cases in the next Public Health bulletin would be close to the daily average of 220 for the period April 21-24?
For sample a Cuomo is enough. The Governor of New York reported last week that, based on antibody screening tests conducted on New York state residents to determine if someone has had the coronavirus, 13.9% of New York state residents were found to have been infected, throwing 2.7 million infected. However, from the PCR tests administered as of April 23 in New York State to detect the presence or not of the virus, only 268,581 positive cases were registered. Divide 2.7 million estimated infected with antibody tests by that reported as positive cases by insufficient PCR tests performed, and it will have a "ratio" of 10. In other words, according to antibody tests performed in New York State,
If we assume that what happened in New York could be happening in our country, it does not seem unreasonable to indicate that, given the impossibility of testing 100% of the population, the number of infected in the Dominican Republic would be several times the number derived from the PCR tests carried out on 0.2% of the population. New York State has 19.5 million people with a population density of 159 people per km2. We have 10.4 million with a population density of 215 people per km2. New York implemented less stringent social distancing policies than ours beginning March 20, which have been gradually tightened and extended. In relative terms (per million inhabitants), they have tested 20 times more than us. Comparing the parameters, if in New York the 13.
There is no reason to feel bad. This is happening practically throughout the world geography. The good news is that the purported coronavirus fatality or death rate, due to insufficient testing, has been greatly overestimated. In the case of the state of New York, for example, this would drop from 7.77%, which has been published to only 0.77%. In the case of the Dominican Republic, if we assume that 1% of the population (104,034 people) -and not 13.9% of New York- has been infected, the mortality rate would drop from 4.6% to 0.26%.
Someone might think that 10 times for New York and 18 times (104,034 / 5,749 = 18) for the Dominican Republic, in relation to the positive cases that emanate from the PCR tests, they are exaggerated numbers. Those who think so must justify their opinion based on scientific bases. On Friday, April 17, just days before Governor Cuomo's announcement, researchers from Stanford University released a study based on antibody tests administered to 3,330 people in Santa Clara County, California, which revealed that between 48,000 and 81,000 people (2.5% and 4.2% of the population) had been infected in that county in early April, in contrast to the 1,094 positive cases (0.056% of the population) reported from the PCR tests performed. In other words, 44 to 74 times more than confirmed positive cases. These results have led researchers at Stanford University to argue that the mortality from the coronavirus ranges from 0.12% to 0.2%.
So can we begin the reopening of the economic activities that have had to pause to contribute to the flattening of the contagion curve or should we wait a little longer? The answer to that question will depend on which of the indicators of spread of the virus is closest to the instinct of experts who advise the Government in the management and control of an unprecedented pandemic for present generations.
If the experts really consider that the mortality rate of the coronavirus in the country is 4.6%, since they understand that the only infected are the 5,926 positive cases confirmed through PCR tests, it would seem rushed to reopen economic activities quickly, considering that The SIR model, with the current basic reproduction number (Ro) of 1,431, places the peak of the contagion curve for August 13, with almost 43,000 new daily cases, 195 times the average of new daily cases registered during the April 21-24.
On the other hand, if the experts recognize that the spread of the coronavirus is several times higher than that indicated by the PCR tests carried out, given that these, in addition to being insufficient, are mainly carried out on people who have symptoms associated with the coronavirus, and they estimate, in As a consequence, that the mortality rate is close to 0.2% of the total number of infected that the researchers from Stanford University have estimated for this virus, it would seem sensible to start the elaboration of a road map for the gradual reopening of the economic activities of the country, taking care at all times that this navigation chart clearly lists the prevention and hygiene protocol that we must comply with to avoid a setback in all that we have advanced in the war against the coronavirus.
For sample a Cuomo is enough. The Governor of New York reported last week that, based on antibody screening tests conducted on New York state residents to determine if someone has had the coronavirus, 13.9% of New York state residents were found to have been infected, throwing 2.7 million infected. However, from the PCR tests administered as of April 23 in New York State to detect the presence or not of the virus, only 268,581 positive cases were registered. Divide 2.7 million estimated infected with antibody tests by that reported as positive cases by insufficient PCR tests performed, and it will have a "ratio" of 10. In other words, according to antibody tests performed in New York State,
If we assume that what happened in New York could be happening in our country, it does not seem unreasonable to indicate that, given the impossibility of testing 100% of the population, the number of infected in the Dominican Republic would be several times the number derived from the PCR tests carried out on 0.2% of the population. New York State has 19.5 million people with a population density of 159 people per km2. We have 10.4 million with a population density of 215 people per km2. New York implemented less stringent social distancing policies than ours beginning March 20, which have been gradually tightened and extended. In relative terms (per million inhabitants), they have tested 20 times more than us. Comparing the parameters, if in New York the 13.
There is no reason to feel bad. This is happening practically throughout the world geography. The good news is that the purported coronavirus fatality or death rate, due to insufficient testing, has been greatly overestimated. In the case of the state of New York, for example, this would drop from 7.77%, which has been published to only 0.77%. In the case of the Dominican Republic, if we assume that 1% of the population (104,034 people) -and not 13.9% of New York- has been infected, the mortality rate would drop from 4.6% to 0.26%.
Someone might think that 10 times for New York and 18 times (104,034 / 5,749 = 18) for the Dominican Republic, in relation to the positive cases that emanate from the PCR tests, they are exaggerated numbers. Those who think so must justify their opinion based on scientific bases. On Friday, April 17, just days before Governor Cuomo's announcement, researchers from Stanford University released a study based on antibody tests administered to 3,330 people in Santa Clara County, California, which revealed that between 48,000 and 81,000 people (2.5% and 4.2% of the population) had been infected in that county in early April, in contrast to the 1,094 positive cases (0.056% of the population) reported from the PCR tests performed. In other words, 44 to 74 times more than confirmed positive cases. These results have led researchers at Stanford University to argue that the mortality from the coronavirus ranges from 0.12% to 0.2%.
So can we begin the reopening of the economic activities that have had to pause to contribute to the flattening of the contagion curve or should we wait a little longer? The answer to that question will depend on which of the indicators of spread of the virus is closest to the instinct of experts who advise the Government in the management and control of an unprecedented pandemic for present generations.
If the experts really consider that the mortality rate of the coronavirus in the country is 4.6%, since they understand that the only infected are the 5,926 positive cases confirmed through PCR tests, it would seem rushed to reopen economic activities quickly, considering that The SIR model, with the current basic reproduction number (Ro) of 1,431, places the peak of the contagion curve for August 13, with almost 43,000 new daily cases, 195 times the average of new daily cases registered during the April 21-24.
On the other hand, if the experts recognize that the spread of the coronavirus is several times higher than that indicated by the PCR tests carried out, given that these, in addition to being insufficient, are mainly carried out on people who have symptoms associated with the coronavirus, and they estimate, in As a consequence, that the mortality rate is close to 0.2% of the total number of infected that the researchers from Stanford University have estimated for this virus, it would seem sensible to start the elaboration of a road map for the gradual reopening of the economic activities of the country, taking care at all times that this navigation chart clearly lists the prevention and hygiene protocol that we must comply with to avoid a setback in all that we have advanced in the war against the coronavirus.
That's a GT transaltion of the article posted in the header, published today in El Caribe. I thought it was pretty clear
Sounds like nobody has no numbers to predict nothing on nobody, but sound authoritative in saying/not saying/bloviating about it.Are we close to flattening the curve of coronavirus cases in the Dominican Republic?
<p>After almost two months of the arrival of the coronavirus in the Dominican Republic, the country registers 5,926 positive cases distributed in all its demarcations, reports the 37th bulletin of follow-up to COVID-19 issued by the Ministry of Public Health. However, from April 19 (bulletin 31)...
After almost two months of the arrival of the coronavirus in the Dominican Republic, the country registers 5,926 positive cases distributed in all its demarcations, reports the 37th bulletin of follow-up to COVID-19 issued by the Ministry of Public Health.
However, from April 19 (bulletin 31) to April 25 (bulletin 37), COVID-19 has recorded a slight reduction daily in the number of those reported. However, Dr. Carlos Manuel Feliz Cuello, a health epidemiologist, explains that such data does not represent a real drop in infections by the virus, but that the number of positive cases is related to the daily tests carried out in the country.
Feliz Cuello maintains that the cases reported daily are “credible,” but “with an overdraft of more than four times the amount confirmed daily.”
He claims that the exact number of people who have died from the disease is unknown, as well as those infected “due to the inadequate strategy that has been followed.”
“Those who have been reporting have been clinical cases with positive results, but the truth is that the pandemic has covered the entire national territory, only Elías Piña was missing and already has confirmed cases, to the point that we have provinces with more than one hundred cases,” says Feliz Cuello.
He affirms that the country is not yet close to flattening the coronavirus spread curve because the cases reported daily as positive are still higher than the patients who exceed the disease. “When the cases reported as discharged are greater than the cases reported as positive with an interval of 48 to 72 hours, then it can be said that we are facing elimination of the contagion curve,” said the doctor.
Likewise, Feliz Cuello adds that the increase or decrease in positive patients will depend on the strategy to work with suspected cases based on the number of tests that are performed “the greater the number of tests performed, the greater the number of cases.”
He adds that another element to take into account is the proximity of the presidential elections arranged for next July 5, which will lead to a “polarization of the two largest forces, which, in one way or another, will condition the way in which report the cases,” he said.
One on my employees is a Red Cross volunteer who spent a week in mid-April working with five doctors from Santo Domingo looking all around Jarabacoa for CVC19 infections. Their goal was to take these people to a special military facility across from Salto Jimenoa for quarantine. They drove all over for a week, tracking down leads and transporting a few people to the facility.
My guy said the docs were surprised how few infections there were compared to the number their bosses in SdoDgo told them to expect.
The facility, set up for like 60 beds, has had 20 people max, and five were from the same family.
The local clinics are quiet. How do I know? My next-door neighbor runs the finance department of one. They are hurting for cash.
It's not over yet, but the sky in my neck of the woods did not fall, despite the dire predictions. Maybe the sky where you live fell.
But, Alex, don't listen to me because I don't know anything.
.If the Tainos would have had access to the internet in their day, I wonder what they would have been saying.
What they might have been thinking.
For that matter any of the indigenous peoples of the new world, the Americas.
For those that are thinking that the government in the D.R. is being too cautious with COVID19, remember that there is history on the island of Hispaniola as it relates to disease imported from away...
What they might have been thinking.
For that matter any of the indigenous peoples of the new world, the Americas.
For those that are thinking that the government in the D.R. is being too cautious with COVID19, remember that there is history on the island of Hispaniola as it relates to disease imported from away...
"Let's pretend to be friendly but poison the invaders with improperly prepared cassava."
- Status