currency question

jjsk

"Going for Gold"
Jan 1, 2002
338
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<sub>o.k., forgive me if it's a stupid question...</sub>

One of the concerns people have about investing in peso accounts is the possible devaluation of the peso vs the us dollar. But, this only occurs if the us dollar goes up, right?
Does this devaluation of the peso vs the us dollar also create an equal devaluation of the peso relative to other currencies (like the canadian dollar, which is worth so little to the us dollar itself), or is it possible that there is less risk in investing in pesos for someone from a country that also has a problem with the devaluation of their currency.
<sub>god, somebody please tell me that makes sense... I have no idea if I'm explaning this properly or not</sub>

curious...
 

mondongo

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
1,533
6
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This link is form the Dominican central bank. Look at the column just to the right of the listing of the years 1987-2001. Since 1987, the peso has been declining steadily (from 3.49 to 17.15 now). As you can see, the late 80's was a terrible time for the local currency, where devaluation was swift and quick.

http://www.bancentral.gov.do/dollar.html

As for the Canadian dollar, look at the following website and plug in the dates for 1987 -2001 and measure $CD against $US. You will notice that even though the canadian dollar has been falling against the US dollar, that change is nearly insignificant compared to how much the $DR has fallen.


http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

No one can tell whats going to happen in the future. But many respected economists are worried about the surge in loans taken out by the Dominican politicians. Some people think that that can lead to even greater devaluation.

To answer some of your questions: the US$ can go up or down against any other currency without affecting the exchange rate with the DR$.

Since the exchange rate of CD$/US$ is significantly more stable than that of US$/DR$ there are little advantages or disadvantages due to the fact you are Canadian.

Geez....I hope all that mumbo jumbo makes sense..
 

jjsk

"Going for Gold"
Jan 1, 2002
338
0
0
thnx

yes, it does make sense, thank you! (esp. since I wasn't even sure if my question made sense in the first place) :)
 

BushBaby

Silver
Jan 1, 2002
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JJSK.
Look at your posting on Anoeca in the 'Business' forum. Jazzcomm's response re the US $ investment might be the answer to your question. - Grahame.
 

mondongo

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
1,533
6
38
correction...

jjsk,

The answer to your question can be different if instead of looking at the period 1987 -2001, you look at the period 1991 -2001. During this time interval, the CD$ and the DR$ tracked each other very closely. The inference thus being that the CD$/DR$ SHOULD have been pretty stable during the 90's.

As we can see, the problem with "data" and "statistics" is that we can massage them to fit almost any point of view.
 

x_man

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
668
0
0
money

JJSK, If you exchange your Canadian dollares into pesos you can
assume the $US as the measure of reference.

After say 1 year there could be the following scenarios:

1) 20 pesos buy 1 $US and $CAN has not changed vrs $US
you lose since only 17 pesos bought 1 $US

2) Same as above but the $CAN also has lost against the $US
you lose even more unless you convert Back into $CAN

3) Now if a milagro happens and the $CAN rises VRS the $US
then the peso could loses value and I guess your portfolio too.

It's possible the total opposite from the cases above could also
happen and you would lose again.

I guess what I am trying to say is buy Maple Leaves (Gold)
and you might lose a little less.

I hope this will help you to make a wise investment decision.
And next time please ask me something easier.


Que tengas un bien fin de semana X.
 

Golo100

Bronze
Jan 5, 2002
2,138
56
0
Peso Vs Dollar

Still with all the talk going on, the peso in DR is better than the dollar. Here are the inflation multipliers since 1980 used by the government for economic planning:

1980=28.94
1981=24.74
1982=23.03
1983=20.41
1984=19.33
1985=13.38
1986=10.22
1987=9.79
1988=7.98
1989=5.1
1990=3.8
1991=2.1
1992=1.96
1993=1.86
1994=1.81
1995=1.59
1996=1.45
1997=1.40
1998=1.29
1999=1.20
2000=1.14
2001=1.04
2002=1.00

If you read a report today from our Central Bank you will notice that the Consumer Price Index for January of 2002 was the lowest in the last 10 years(0.57) and the measured annual inflation for 2001 was a mere 4.38% also the lowest in a decade. This is even considering the Sept. 11 WTC events, a down US economy and economic upheaval around the world, including the Argentinian, Venezuelan and Brazilian economic disasters. Today it takes about 800 Bolivares to buy a dollar in Caracas. Last year you could buy one for 578. You need to carry a truck full of Argentinian pesos to buy a dollar. $18 Dominican pesos for a dollar is a terrific value. Think about it...an imported Danon Yogurt full of fruit will cost you exactly $18 in our most expensive supermarkets. How much does it cost in the USA? Not much of a difference. But a plantain costs almost $20 pesos in the USA, while you can get one here for $2 pesos. A banana costs US$0.05 cents!!!! An Avocado US$0.25 cents!!! While rent and transportation is expensive in DR our taxes pale in comparison to the USA. There are no taxes on capital gains from bank certificates. Dominicans begin to pay income taxes after earning over $10,000 Dominican pesos a month. The vast majority do earn that much and yet make a living.

Banks holding certificates of investments in DR are the strongest in the region, including Central America. Banco Popular is #2 in the region,Banco de Reservas is #5, Baninter is #8, Banco BHD #11 and Banco del Progreso is #15. The rest of the top 20 are mostly in Costa Rica and El Salvador, two tiny nations that cannot compare with DR in power and potential. If you invest in pesos even at the lowest interest rates in years(15%) and the possibility of climbing again, as it is happening now, you cannot lose investing in pesos, specially if you reinvest your capital gains. Does it surprise you that a person with US$500,000 invested in the same type certificate in the USA can only expect about $25,000 a year and barely beat the poverty line, while in the same situation the person would be a Dominican millionaire?

In a practical reality, that is why I left the United States. I found myself with money in the bank but I had to continue working for the rest of my life living a simple middle class existence and waiting for a retirement check god knows when. While in DR I do not have to work for a living and I can finance my own retirement.

The multiplier above gives you an idea of what some people have said about the difference between the 1980s and now. The peso has remained very stable with barely the increases due to inflationary trends natural of any currency in the world, except that ours right now, is the most solid currency in Latin America and one of the most profitable in the world, if not the best. This is Singapour at its best.

TW
 

Criss Colon

Platinum
Jan 2, 2002
21,843
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yahoomail.com
Yes,and if you believe the Government figures I have a "NEW BRIDGE" over the Rio OZama that I can sell you "cheap"! Lets face facts Golo,you are like the guy on the "Titanic" who was arranging the deck chairs as the ship was going down!The economy here is in trouble! The economic policies of the PRD are a joke.They seem to feel that you can borrow your way out of debt!My wife uses the same policy, as do many Dominicans.When they get paid,the money goes to pay the people she has borrowed from!Doesn,t work for her,didn,t work for "La Argentina", won,t work for "Hipolito" either! Criss Colon
 

Jim Hinsch

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
669
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geocities.com
Re: correction...

mondongo said:
jjsk,

The answer to your question can be different if instead of looking at the period 1987 -2001, you look at the period 1991 -2001.

<IMG SRC="http://www.bocachicabeach.net/images/money/peso_dollar.gif">
 

Pavan

Member
Jan 18, 2002
512
2
18
it's simple maths

let's say you have 100k invested in USA. You will make 5k per year on it.

you have 100k invested in dr you will make 15k a year.

no matter what you do you will always be ahead of any devaluation of the peso against the dollar.

then there are other factors which help you arrive at a win win situation. the cost of platanos, avacado etc. and the low tax base.

viva el mighty dominican peso!
 

Marc

New member
Jan 1, 2002
362
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www.haugen.ca
$15k per year

I was under the impression that to get 15%+ you needed to invest in a peso account. That is the risk in my mind. If the peso drops 10%, which it has in recent months, you wipe out your gains and are still at risk of further devaluation.

I think I'm better off with a good mutual fund than exposing myself to Hipoloto's whim and poor borrowing/spending practices....

marc
 

Jim Hinsch

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
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Re: it's simple maths

missing_dr said:
no matter what you do you will always be ahead of any devaluation of the peso against the dollar.

As usual, the higher rate of return comes with higher risk. USA savings accounts are guaranteed by the FICA, making them almost risk free. That's why the return is low.

There are many risks associated with the peso investment that generally or very low or non-existent with USA savings acount investments. Civil unrest, devaluation, fraud, bankruptcy, ...
 

mondongo

Bronze
Jan 1, 2002
1,533
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Jim....your absolutely right about understanding the risk/reward profile of your investments..most investors dont tate this into account.


TW..during the decade of the 90's, most investors who were willing to assume a moderate level of risk (SP500, dominican commercail paper) did very well. The inflation adjusted return of the SP500 was higher than that of dominican papaer. If you calculate them both in US$ or DR$ alone, then the SP500 was significanlty better since the DR$ lost value to the US$. The reason i am comparing the the SP500 to dominican commercial is that they are both risky investments, with the SP500 admittedly riskier. note that you cannot compare DR commercial paper to US savings account because the much higher riskt assigned to DR debt ingeneral. this higher risk came as a result of the massive devaluation in the late 80's to 1990 along with its accompanying triple digit inflation.

platanos in Boston = $5DR$ not 20 DR$
 

Golo100

Bronze
Jan 5, 2002
2,138
56
0
What is all this?

Marc: where did you get the idea the peso dropped 10% value in the last few months? A drop of 10% would have meant the peso trading now at almost 19 to 1. Check your math please!!!

As to the risk bears, how much risk can you have on a two or three month certificate? Jesus guys....be serious!!! Do you think any of the top five banks in DR will go broke in three months?

Yes the FICA or FDIC can guarantee your investment in the USA, but everytime there is a problem, just like everywhere else you have to wait your time to get your refunds.

As to the Wall Street lovers, watch out another ENRON won't come in and bite your ass.

Talk about risk????

TW
 

sjh

aka - shadley
Jan 1, 2002
969
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risk on 3 month paper

If the peso suddenly devalues by only 1 peso during those three months that annualizes to a drop of 25% if your investment return rate is 15% per year then for those 3 months you were losing USD buying power at a rate of 10% per year...

it is just simple mathematics...

move from 17:1 to 18:1 = devalution 5.8%
annualize it (assume 3 month time frame
(1+(100*5.8%))^4 = 1.25
or 25% devaluation rate.

for those three months you have lost USD buying power at an annualized rate of
15%-25% = 10%

The bank does not have to go broke for this to happen...

If you dont care about USD buying power maybe this is OK but if you buy foreign imports or goods made from foreign imports you are in for trouble....