Well, just to mention a few, the us government sold part of his citi stock a couple of times already and it is holding value (floating between 3.5 and 5$ for the last few months) and the other one is the stock was over 50$ less than 36 months ago. So the thing is to get the real value of the stock and there is a consensus among traders that being conservative, it will be as said before.
Uhmm! So, you're not looking at the underlying business and seeing that Citi's massive revenue generating businesses (overdraft fees, etc.) are being severely threatened by potential Senate passage of the financial bill just passed by the House? Also that its efforts to create new lines of business and expansion to profitable markets have been less than successful? It seems to me that Pandit's tenure hasn't been as great as management had hoped. He is a financial engineer and an academic, not a business leader.
There's a myriad of factors that I would look at before investing in this stock (DCF models, dividend discount, open interest in calls and puts at diff price points, growth opps, quality of mgmt, macroeconomy, peer insts, etc.) Govt selling its position in the business may even be a neg for the stock since it may imply that the govt may not backstop C's failures in the future. You may be right about the direction of the stock, but I would just suggest you realize the massive amount of risk you'd be taking. It's not wise to place an investment in C stock as an equal alternative to CD's in a bank.
Best,
Cris