Dr Gray at Colorado State updated his numbers for October a few days ago.. The expectation is another three tropical storms in October for a total of 21 tropical storms this year. Bear in mind that this is for the coastline of the US - but also bear in mind that most of these storms have to pass us chickens down here, in some form or another, before they get to the US.. :nervous:
Here are some more Hurricane Statistics... it is quite chilling...
Dr Gray is saying that 2 of the 3 storms expected in October would become hurricanes, and 1 of those, a major hurricane.
The five major hurricanes so far this season, including the expected new 'big one' in October, doubled the long term average for the region this year.
The average Atlantic season produces about 10 storms, of which about 6 become hurricanes and 2 to 3 turn into major hurricanes.
The average chance of a tropical storm or hurricane hitting the US coast in October, is 29 percent. This year, taking Dr Gray's predictions into account, it is 49 percent.
Tropical Storm Stan was the 18th storm of the season - and the 10th hurricane of the season. Now Tropical Storm Tammy that developed very fast from a almost stationary mess of 'distubed weather' is the 19th storm of the season. I have never in my life seen 19 storms in one season... That is almost 4 storms a month since the hurricane season started.
Katrina will probably be the costliest storm in all memory. Perhaps more because of inept handling of the preparation as well as the aftermath.
The reasons for this increase in frequency and intensity and extreme activity according to Dr Gray and his team at Colorado state, is warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures, lower surface pressures and low wind shear.
The whole issue of human-induced global warming seems to be on the front-burner, but no-one can really say if this is a factor. Some conventional scientists consider this a long-term pattern and the tree-hugger scientists consider this human induced global warming. Who is to say who is right...
So, to my mind, complacent is the last thing we should be anywhere on our Island. For the North Coast ... we are in uncommon times in terms of the weather.
The major question for me though this year, still is why the increased activity focused on the US Coastline and here in the Caribbean we are relatively unscathed so far this season. Though it is early days yet.
