Hurricane Dean

C

Cguad

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Aug 16, 2007
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Hi,

I apologize in advance for this question however my friends and I are supposed to fly to Punta Cana tomorrow morning and right now that is our plan unless our flight is cancelled...does that make sense or should we re-book with USAirways? If we wait I am worried our flight will be cancelled and we won't be able to get down there this coming week. (Collectively the following week is the only week we have vacation) Should we just sit tight until the 5PM update?

Thank you :)
 
Hillbilly

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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For the question-askers:
Dean will go to the South of us according to all current forecasts.
However, storms are fickle.
Stay alert to this site for updates.
For those heading to Punta Cana. Don't chang your plans just yet.
For those with loved ones in Santo Domingo. Not to worry.
For those heading to Boca Chica...storm surges won't be a problem.

NOW: stay Tuned!!!

HB
 
C

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Hurricane Dean is now rapidly approaching the Lesser Antilles as a Category 2 and is still strengthening. We've received the latest analysis and the track seems to be holding with outstanding agreement between the models.

We're in the process of plotting forecasted distances from the DR now. Stand by a little.
 
S

sne75

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Aug 16, 2007
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Any word on whether Puerto Plata will be affected? I am traveling with a one-year old and a two-year old so am a little worried...thanks!!
 
L

Lambada

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Mar 4, 2004
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sne75 said:
Any word on whether Puerto Plata will be affected? I am traveling with a one-year old and a two-year old so am a little worried...thanks!!
Click to expand...

Don't worry. PP is on the north of the island, Dean is forecast to go off south coast by some way, so you've got the whole of the island in between + some mountains to break it up a bit. We'll probably get some rain & gusts of wind. We live in PP & so far we're not even putting the window shields up.
 
C

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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All things being equal, Dean should pass us as a strengthening Category 2 hurricane. Pressure is still dropping and winds are rising.
At the present track, we are not threatened, but this may change in the next day.

General Info
Hurricane Dean is moving real fast at 22 miles per hour in a Westerly direction. (heading 280 degrees)
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 miles per hour / 160 km per hour, with higher gusts.
Hurricane force winds currently extend outward 15 miles / 30 km from the center, indicating that it is a compact storm. When the storm goes by the DR, this will probably be a wider area.
Tropical storm force winds extend up to 150 miles / 240 km from the center. We don't need to worry too much about these as tropical storm force winds are normal for our island.
Storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on our South Coast and for some distance up the East Coast. The North Coast will see some influence but limited and I would not worry about that.
Large and dangerous battering waves are possible as the storm passes. Don't go swimming!
Rainfall of 2 to 7 inches (higher elevations) can be expected in quite a deluge - in the DR, this translates to flash floods and mudslides.

Taking our three points from yesterday, East to West, it looks good for the DR - the storm is far enough off in the Caribbean Sea so that we are not threatened should the track hold. Here are the closest points to the DR, that the storm will pass us, out in the Ocean:

Punta Cana - 190 miles / 310 kms at around 10 to 11 am on Saturday Morning
Santo Domingo - 172 miles / 277 kms at around 2 to 3 pm Saturday Afternoon
Isla Beata (The point of the Pen?nsula de Pedernales) - 95 miles / 151 kms around 4 to 5 pm Saturday Afternoon

We're expecting advisories at 8pm tonight and then at 11pm.
If the track holds by tomorrow, I would feel fairly confident in this information but we've seen these storms turn, twist and make complete wheelies out in the ocean or slow down suddenly. So, keep watching.
 
M

Michael Strong

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Nov 27, 2002
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Dean now CAT 2 100 MPH 37 MPH@West

Dean has bean upgraded in the Latest Advisory. to A Category 2 Hurricane with sustained winds to 100 MPH with higher gusts. All modells indicate that it will pass the DR south over the carribean sea. It could get a bit bumby since there is a high chance that we will have tropical strom conditions in the South

Check this:Hurricane DEAN Public Advisory

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


So keep monitoring this
 
M

Matilda

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Sep 13, 2006
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At the moment it looks like it will be similar to when Ivan went past. Roughly same distance away. I was actually working on the beach in Juan Dolio when Ivan went past. Heavy seas and some surge (took half my wooden office away which was 3 metres from sea!!), but lovely blue skies, no rain and only a little wind. So if it stays like this should be no probs
 
M

Michael Strong

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Nov 27, 2002
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Ivan was a lot farer away from the DR coast as Dean is projected to pass check this

Ivan
Image:Ivan 2004 track.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Dean Projected

Hurricane DEAN

I hope it does not turn more to the north. But all models agree it won't by now.

At least the Barahona area will get Toopical force winds when dean keeps his track. I agree with Chris Tropical Force winds are common here in the season. But they can be nasty too like Hurricane Jeanne. I remember it since it passed Nagua where l live. And it passed slooowly. So it did a lot of damange. Dean is faster on track so hopefully no so dangerous for us.
 
W

whirleybird

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Feb 27, 2006
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Chris said:
Agreed Michael Strong!

8pm Advisories - no material changes. This projected track is amazing, the storm is just sticking to it! I've never seen a storm so well-behaved.
Click to expand...

Hmmm, don't tempt providence Chris, its a male hurricane remember so it could change its mind at any time!!
 
C

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Hillbilly said:
NO big deal out east, as long as Gentleman Dean continues to behave himself!!

Hb
Click to expand...

Hehehe! I knew it was too good to be true. The 11pm advisories are in and they express some uncertainty ... like, the eye is not developing as it should. Track is changed from 280 to 275 ... but it kinda ends up in the same place for us, if you plot it in a straight line. Track confidence is the highest I've ever seen it in 15 years.

However, I think I'll wait for the 5am's. We will also be able to see how Dean travelled across the lesser Antilles. All will have had a night sleep including the forecasters. I sense a certain 'raggedness' and lack of sleep in the latest advisories ;)

Those fellows at Noaa really do a tremendous job, and I have a great and thankful admiration for them. If they read us here ;) (which I know they do!), from me a heartfelt Thank You! Forecaster Franklin, Forecaster Avila, Forecaster Knabb, Forecaster Landsea, Forecaster Beven and the newbies, Forecaster Brown, Forecaster Dean, Forecaster Blake.

Best of luck to St. Lucia and Martinique for the next few hours. Then, as the track is currently .. next stop Jamaica if it does not sideswipe us or someone else in the process!
 
R

RebeccaBell

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Aug 17, 2007
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Hello to all :) first time posting. First of all I want to say I hope everyone stays safe through Dean. I have been looking at Punta Cana, Execellence Resort for 3 years on the internet and finally my husband got the hint to take me after I said "WE ARE GOING" lol... Anyway we are suppose to fly out of Pensacola Tuesday 21 (weather permitting) and I am so excited but scared. I have never flown before and now i'm gonna be more nervous because of Dean. And on top of that then when we get there I will be worried about my family here of what Dean is gonna do. Guess I'll have to drink x-tra by the pool...lol... I just wanted to say thanks for all the info on here and I can't wait to visit and enjoy another culture other than my own. (((((to all)))))) and stay safe. :):):)
 
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