Hurricane Emily (was .. Tropical Storm Emily)

[Chris]

2pm advisories

The center of Hurricane Emily is now located near latitude 12.9 North...Longitude 65.0 West or about 490 Miles...795KM Southeast of Santo Domingo.

Movement is still toward the West-NorthWest near 18 MPH...30KM/HR and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 110 MPH...175 KM/HR with higher gusts. Emily is now a strong category 2 hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected and Emily could become a category three before she passes our shores, still predicted at around 200 miles south.

Hurricane Force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55KM from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 Miles...165 KM.

As to motion forward, it is still 285/16. Four of the predictive models now cluster around this current track. The UKMET and Canadian models continue with a slightly more Northward track.

 

[Dolores1]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html

 

[LynnCox]

Bad government warnings!!!

It just amazes me that the government of this country doesn't issue warnings correctly to the eastern end of the island. If you check this site: http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/tracker/dynamic/main.html click on EMILY go to her page and click on WIND MODEL WIND FIELD (21 hours) you'll see that the eastern end of the island is definitely in TD/TS winds and will for sure have storm surge problems and experience these conditions. We had storm surge damage here at our house from Dennis...yes believe it or not we did!!!! What does it take to get the government to issue the warnings for this end of the island? Does anybody know???? They never do! Sorry if you hear a little "hostility" here, but I get so tired of them not taking care of this end of the island.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

 

[Chris]

Lynn, it is an inexact science... Try this. This is a animation of all the predictive models run for Emily up to know, against the real storm direction.

Push the play button at the bottom to start... OK, sorry, y'all, I get my kicks in strange ways..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&Year=2005

 

[Dolores1]

It just amazes me that the government of this country doesn't issue warnings correctly to the eastern end of the island. If you check this site: http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/tracker/dynamic/main.html click on EMILY go to her page and click on WIND MODEL WIND FIELD (21 hours) you'll see that the eastern end of the island is definitely in TD/TS winds and will for sure have storm surge problems and experience these conditions. We had storm surge damage here at our house from Dennis...yes believe it or not we did!!!! What does it take to get the government to issue the warnings for this end of the island? Does anybody know???? They never do! Sorry if you hear a little "hostility" here, but I get so tired of them not taking care of this end of the island.

This is an important point, and an opportunity. I believe what happens is that the local government uses the information provided by the NOAA. When NOAA reports I believe their focus is predominantly an interest in the storm to tell the track it will take regarding possibilities of it hitting US territory.

The opportunity that I see is in understanding and communicating how close a storm may come to us to create an effect -- such as you point out from storm swell surges. This is an important observation to make here on dr1 and we will include this alert in our weather reports, but you could be most helpful in interpreting here what the storm at that distance and strength could bring for places like La Romana and Juan Dolio where there are many homes and businesses right on the sea coastline. Experience makes for the best weather reporters.

So, don't feel hostility, turn a negative into a positive and help us do something about it by sharing information such as what you posted to educate the public with a Dominican perspective of what these storms mean to each coastline.

 

[LynnCox]

Thanks Chris...cool! I realize it is not an exact science. But it just amazes me that our gov't is so dense that they can't look at all the modules and see that there are more areas affected than what they are warning. I feel for the people in Bayahibe...they will definitely have storm surge problems and will be unprepared. I live in La Romana (Casa de Campo) on 650' of ocean front property and experience storm surge damage whenever there is a system out there...no matter how far away. I guess I can just feel lucky that I can check these systems and be prepared properly.

Thanks again Chris!
Lynn

Lynn, it is an inexact science... Try this. This is a animation of all the predictive models run for Emily up to know, against the real storm direction.

Push the play button at the bottom to start... OK, sorry, y'all, I get my kicks in strange ways..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=5&Year=2005

 

[LynnCox]

Thanks Dolores for the "encouraging" words! I have realized for the past 8 years that the NOAA is predominately interested in how it affects US territories and we are "normally" left out of the loop as affected areas. Sad but true.

This is an important point, and an opportunity. I believe what happens is that the local government uses the information provided by the NOAA. When NOAA reports I believe their focus is predominantly an interest in the storm to tell the track it will take regarding possibilities of it hitting US territory. I will continue to monitor these sytems and when possible post what I can about how it will affect this end of the island...

Lynn

The opportunity that I see is in understanding and communicating how close a storm may come to us to create an effect -- such as you point out from storm swell surges. This is an important observation to make here on dr1 and we will include this alert in our weather reports, but you could be most helpful in interpreting here what the storm at that distance and strength could bring for places like La Romana and Juan Dolio where there are many homes and businesses right on the sea coastline. Experience makes for the best weather reporters.

So, don't feel hostility, turn a negative into a positive and help us do something about it by sharing information such as what you posted to educate the public with a Dominican perspective of what these storms mean to each coastline.

 

[Chris]

Clouded Over

This looping satellite image should explain the clouds above us at the moment. I see Planner reporting from Puerto Plata that it is now clouded over there as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

 

[Chris]

5pm Advisories

Emily is now a Category three storm.
Now located near 13.3 N 65.9 W or about 445 miles SouthEast from Santo Domingo.
Present movement toward the West-NorthWest or 285 degrees, so, still on track to pass Santo Domingo around 200 miles to the south of our shores.
Speed is just around 21 miles per hour.
The eye diameter is 15 Miles.
Maximum sustained winds are 115 miles per hour.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

Emily is expected to produce rain of 3 to 6 inches, up to 8 inches is possible, over portions of Hispaniola, so as usual, we could have mudslides and floods.

Next report shortly after 8pm.

 

[Dolores1]

Good photo of Emily and others coming along.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/trplwav.htm

 

[Chris]

8pm Advisories

Little has changed from the 5pm advisories....

Now located near 13.3 N 66.7 W or about 415 miles SouthEast from Santo Domingo. A tad slower (which usually means a tad stronger); speed is near 20 miles per hour... so Santo Domingo may even see the sun rise behind the clouds, before the storm passes fully.

So, Emily should pass south of the Punta Cana area from around 2am tomorrow morning.

In the last three hours, it has not edged North at all... and present movement toward the West-NorthWest so, on track to pass Santo Domingo probably further than 200 miles to the south of our shores.

Next report shortly after 11pm. Mexico, Jamaica, Cuba all better wake up.

A classic "image of the day" http://www.osei.noaa.gov/OSEIiod.html

 

[Mirador]

an interesting bit of strange weather trivia...

Hurricane Emily is the only Cat 3 storm on record between the years 1851 - 2003, within 600 miles from it's current position, for the month of July.





http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_climo.html

 

[Chris]

Thanks Mirador. Here is a blast from the past. If you have a look at Jeanne, you'll see exactly why I don't trust these storms until they are really gone...
www.2004hurricanes.com

 

[Chris]

11pm Advisories

Very little change, excepting that Emily is slowly building and may become a cat 4 storm soon.

We'll see lots of rain, but not much wind and it should miss us by a wide margin. I'm sure PJT will report bright and early in the morning as to the Punta Cana Conditions and
Dolores will follow shortly thereafter with the Santo Domingo conditions.

Goodnight till shortly after 7am in the morning!

 

[LynnCox]

La Romana Lynn...

I will be up bright and early with reports from La Romana as well! See ya then. I see she's just below a Cat 4 now, so I bet she'll be one by morning.

Very little change, excepting that Emily is slowly building and may become a cat 4 storm soon.

We'll see lots of rain, but not much wind and it should miss us by a wide margin. I'm sure PJT will report bright and early in the morning as to the Punta Cana Conditions and
Dolores will follow shortly thereafter with the Santo Domingo conditions.

Goodnight till shortly after 7am in the morning![/QU

 

[LynnCox]

Emily Now a Cat 4

I will be up bright and early with reports from La Romana as well! See ya then. I see she's just below a Cat 4 now, so I bet she'll be one by morning.

Very little change, excepting that Emily is slowly building and may become a cat 4 storm soon.

We'll see lots of rain, but not much wind and it should miss us by a wide margin. I'm sure PJT will report bright and early in the morning as to the Punta Cana Conditions and
Dolores will follow shortly thereafter with the Santo Domingo conditions.

Goodnight till shortly after 7am in the morning![/QU

Emily went to Cat 4 status shortly after midnight, but is very compact now. according to my contact at Tropical Storm Risk, we will definintely have storm surge impact here in LA Romana, but not as bad as Ivan last year due to Emily being so compact.
Little breeze here, maybe 5mph, sunny...will head over to the house around 8:30 and check the ocean and report on storm surge later.

PS Forgot to report last night that we had lightening strike at the house in Casa de Campo knocking out all phone lines and tripping off breakers. Scared a couple of people at the house half to death...fixed the electrical problem, but the phones are a different story. Lots of thunder and lightening last night.

 

[Chris]

Thanks Lynn.

If you look at the forecast track of three days ago and compare with the position now, Emily is more than 300 miles south of where she is supposed to be. Even with such tight agreement among the forecast models, the track is way south of where the models put the storm. Goes to show you never can tell. One of the forecasters at the Central Florida Hurricane center calls Emily a fickle storm and certainly not well-behaved.

Emily is now almost due South of Santo Domingo.

Later today her influence should disappear from our shores unless she backs up, turns around, or heads off in a different direction. Emily is a relatively small and compact storm with hurricane force winds now extending 45 miles from the center. But as a Category four, she is very dangerous and will certainly pack a punch. Jamaica and the Yucutan Peninsula should start making preparations for safety of their people. Cuba should keep a sharp look-out. We will watch the storm until she is completely out of our area.

Has HillBilly left for Santo Domingo yet?

 

[LynnCox]

I second that...fickle emily

Thanks Lynn.

If you look at the forecast track of three days ago and compare with the position now, Emily is more than 300 miles south of where she is supposed to be. Even with such tight agreement among the forecast models, the track is way south of where the models put the storm. Goes to show you never can tell. One of the forecasters at the Central Florida Hurricane center calls Emily a fickle storm and certainly not well-behaved.

Emily is now almost due South of Santo Domingo.

Later today her influence should disappear from our shores unless she backs up, turns around, or heads off in a different direction. Emily is a relatively small and compact storm with hurricane force winds now extending 45 miles from the center. But as a Category four, she is very dangerous and will certainly pack a punch. Jamaica and the Yucutan Peninsula should start making preparations for safety of their people. Cuba should keep a sharp look-out. We will watch the storm until she is completely out of our area.

Has HillBilly left for Santo Domingo yet?

I second that analysis of Emily being fickle and not well-behaved. According to the Tropical Storm Risk page in 9 hours lead time, from La Romana to the DR/Haiti border we are in the TD wind swaths and should experience these winds. Here is the page if anyone would like to check it out and save it for future reference. I find this a valuable site when these systems are out there:
http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/tracker/dynamic/main.html. Still haven't left home yet....phone lines are still out at the house in CdC so I'll have to wait until I come back from there to report on storm surge. I expect it will be later on today that the most impact will be seen.

 

[juanita]

Is there a map somewhere that illustrates all the hurrinaces that ever crossed the DR?

 

[Chris]

Yes Juanita - perhaps someone could start searching.. I have a link somewhere in the history files...

Like Lynn says, we are now seeing the winds pick up... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

Should not be too heavy in terms of winds, but we should still see some rain, torrential in spots. ?Tis a good thing that this lady is far away... :classic: