- Thread starter NanSanPedro
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Kenya Warned Ahead of Police Deployment to Haiti
1000 soldiers that will have to do shift work which brings down the actual amount on the street at any one time to a maximum of 500 soldiers if they are doing 12 hour shifts and much less if they are doing 8 hours shifts, not taking into account time off and illnesses that they some may contract, who will have to work in groups, covering a population of about 1 million people, the city 80% controlled by gangs.....these poor soldiers will be doomed from the moment they set foot in Haiti.
Great analysis of the Haitian situation by ICG. I don’t know if they will be doomed if they set foot on Haitian soil but it goes without saying they will be facing insurmountable odds. At the very worst, it will be a hit and run operation with the Kenyan mercenaries bearing the brunt of the loses. Their US funding will cost them a lot of lives and they will bail before any lasting peace can be achieved. At the very best, they may be able to establish a short period of peace and stability, enough to justify their departure.
The Kenyan’s aren’t naive and they‘re used to atrocities, committing them and responding to them. What they do in Haiti will be business as usual for them, with a greater level of risk. The political reality here is the Kenyan intervention, if it happens, will relieve the US and Canada from pressure to intervene in Haiti. Not a bad deal for a few millions dollars.
A few million? The number floating around is $250 million. Not exactly chump change. And they want it up front.
Still cheap JD when compared to the cost of sending in US and Candian military units for an indefinite period of time to secure a short period of unstable peace. Add to that the pressure that would be on Canada and the US to accept more Haitian refugees. The over all cost of that would be in the billions of dollars range.
The success of the Kenyan's depends on the "rules of engagement" which might limit their actions. To defeat an opponent like a gang it is necessary to " shoot on sight " and " take no prisoners ".
I agree which may be why they are more suited to the job. Their adherence to the rules of engagement tends to fall by the wayside quickly in street and gang war fare.
The Russia-Ukrainian and Hamas-Israeli wars are the current proof of the uselessness of rules of engagement. A certain amount of collateral damage is always expected and occurs in any war. Even so called surgical hits by drones result in significant non combatant loss.
I despise the thought of war in any country but what I can’t understand is why the UNHCR goes into the middle of these conflicts. It indirectly aids and abets further violence by warlords, dictators, and terrorist groups, etc. If they knows the UN will take care of their injured and displaced citizens, they think they have Carte Blanche to commit military genocide on their citizens. No wonder the Israeli’s treat the UN with contempt.
Any relation to George Carlin’s Sisters of Perpetual Agony? 😂
The nuns I had in elementary school would clean up Haiti in about four weeks. And they would only need about 50.
Of course not. The UN is overwhelmed with the two larger conflicts noted in my post. Even before that, they were turning a blind eye towards the Haitian situation. The Haitian initiative now appears to be in the UN back burner. I hope it doesn’t die a bureaucratic death and the US doesn’t withdraw their funding. Biden’s priority is funding for the Ukraine and Israel, not Haiti.
The UN is a useless organization that should be disbanded, so it really does not matter what the UN does or does not do.
One thousand troops in Haiti will be news at 11.
Rules of ingagement? When those Haitians start firing at those Kenyan soldiers... the rules will be shoot to kill, and there will be few prisoners.
Fortunately, them Kenyans are not known for their adhesion to ROE, they will be going in hot!!
That’s the worst case scenario CR. I’m hoping for something better that justifies further UN funding and a longer term intervention by multinational forces. This could well be Haiti’s last chance for political redemption with international assistance. If it fails, for whatever reason, Haiti will be even more politically isolated and their problems will continue to mutate and worsen. Not good for long term DR development plans and public safety. Probably President Abinader’s biggest fear.
I agree with your post. The UN should be funding the intervention not the US. The only real threat to the US and Canada is larger numbers of a Haitian refugees seeking asylum. Canada is not accepting any and the large group of Haitians that crossed from the US into Canada during the end of the Trump administration were bussed back to the US. Only a handful obtained asylum in Canada because they had a family sponsors to support them. The US would be under pressure to accept new Haitian refugees.
The four and five star hotels will suffer if the UN and Red Cross are disbanded.