Leading polls Greenberg, Stagwell and Gallup were quite accurate


Staff member
Feb 20, 2019
Mark Penn/Stagwell Poll, May 20 2024 / Noticias SIN

The three leading international polls covering the Dominican presidential election on 19 May 2024 — Greenberg/Diario Libre, MarkPenn/Stagwell and RCC Media/Gallup — were accurate in their forecasts of the win of President Luis Abinader, showing they are reliable sources of predicting an election. Abinader (Modern Revolutionary Party) won with 57%, to 29.3% of Leonel Fernandez (People’s Force) and 10.2% of Abel Martinez (Dominican Liberation Party).

Given the around 3% plus or minus margin of error, the polls were almost especially accurate in forecasting the vote of Abinader and Martinez, not so that of Leonel Fernandez. Fernandez did better than expected percentage-wise.

The polls had forecast:Mark Penn/Stagwell/SIN (6 May 2024): Luis Abinader 57%, Leonel Fernández 24%, Abel Martínez 12%.

Gallup-RCC Media (1...

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