Let's take our own Poll

Narcosis

New member
Dec 18, 2003
387
0
0
Bad/bad situation

Even if Leonel wins we will still have a congress controlled by the PRD, so it will not be a walk in the park for a PLD government.

One thing that I have not seen anyone mention in these forums is the importance and role of one person that maybe has had the most impact (negative) on the economy these past 4 years, that person being Andres (Andy) Daujare.

Andy has been consultant to the last three governments and is the "brains" behind the neo-liberal movement in the DR since the early 90's.

He was the one that convinced this government to emit the bonds, he was the middle-man on wallstreet actually done a few days after 9/11. He was the one that recommended most of if not all of the tax reforms and was the one that actually wrote that now famous speech the Central Bank gave denouncing the "Baninter fraud".

In one way or another he has been behind all these events. Just recently he was quoted as saying that if "the PLD wins he does not know what will happen to the economy".

These words show his obvoius slant towards the PPH movement, he is now totally partisan in his ramblings and makes a reference to doom and gloom if the PLD wins the elections.

We my friends may fall victim to this mans creation he so dearly defends much like a landmine laid by the people that came before you.

The fact the Central Bank may never be able to honor certificates may cause a landslide effect when certificates are cashed out, if/when they are it will be done by emiting inorganic currency to cover this debt thus pushing the exchange rate into the stratosphear. I just wonder how much of those certificates are in the hands of the PPH and if they will be the ones to start to cash them during the transition period.

We must get these people out of the government but keep our expectations down since it will be a rough road to recovery.
 

samiam

Bronze
Mar 5, 2003
592
0
0
Hippo on the 2nd round

I wish I could say I am convinced Leonel is going to win, despite I prefer him to hippo but...

1-Statistically - Everytime Hippo has said he'll sweep in the elections, he has. He claims to have 40% of the vote, I don't believe it, but he has prooved me wrong in 2000 and 2002. I do not intend to loose thrice.

2-Luck - Every president I have voted for since 1994 has lost.

3-Resentment - In the first round I don't think the Reformistas still in the party will vote for Leonel since he took in the band that seceded the party. And since their previous experience with the PLD I dont think they'll support much LF's candidacy.
 

deelt

Bronze
Mar 23, 2004
987
2
0
Article provides some historical background on Leonel (NY roots, well spoken, int'l respected, cordial, past performance, etc.) and the challenges he will have to face as he enters office in the current economic climate. The basic assumption being that he is slated to win by a landslide.

suarezn said:
What was it about? I'm not registering to a website just to read an article...
 

birizarry

New member
Apr 2, 2004
3
0
0
Absent Vote

I don't live in DR right now, but from all the things I've heard, my vote would be for Fernandez. :bunny:
 

frank alvarez

New member
Apr 13, 2004
282
0
0
Poll Update

Just to bring you all up to date on the latest Penn, Schoen & Berland poll which came out today, Fernandez has 59%, Mejia (Hippo) 27% and Estrella 11%. These numbers are fairly consistent with Gallup and Hamilton's numbers. The news is that Fernandez is down 4 points since the last poll and Mejia up 8. This was expected, though, since Mejia is using all the country's resources for his reelection campaign and giving away money like the world is going to end. Heck! It's not his money! It's everybody's!

In the end, Fernandez should be in the mid to upper 50's, Hippo around 30 and Estrella at about 10 and maybe the DR can start working to get back on track but, again, the 90-day transition period will be awful with Hippo and his people all ticked off. If the results don't reflect the polls and a second round is necessary then we will have another 45 days of cutthroat campaigning. I hope God (and the hopefully sensible majority of the electorate) can spare us!
 

Tony C

Silver
Jan 1, 2002
2,262
2
0
www.sfmreport.com
Polls

All this talk about polls takes me back to those elections in Nicaragua. Every Poll pointed to a Sandanista Landslide victory against Violeta Chammorro.
I can still see the faces of Bianca Jagger, Jimmy Carter and all those other self-declared do-gooders. The total look of disbelief that they had was one of the great joys in my life.
Polls don't mean a thing in Latin America.
Mark my words. There will be tens of thousnads of Dominicans who will swear that they will vote for Lionel but when they get into the voting both they will vote with their wallets. And for them Hippo is the quick way to a piece of the pie.
 

Fiesta Mama

Bronze
Jan 28, 2004
772
60
0
Question...

I am very interested in world politics and have yet to have a full understanding of how things work in the DR in that respect. Many people on this board have mentioned that Hippo may win in the second round. What exactly is that? Does the election not work where the votes are counted and someone wins or is there always a round two? I apologize for my ignorance in advance.
 

frank alvarez

New member
Apr 13, 2004
282
0
0
Hope you're wrong!

Tony C said:
All this talk about polls takes me back to those elections in Nicaragua. Every Poll pointed to a Sandanista Landslide victory against Violeta Chammorro.
I can still see the faces of Bianca Jagger, Jimmy Carter and all those other self-declared do-gooders. The total look of disbelief that they had was one of the great joys in my life.
Polls don't mean a thing in Latin America.
Mark my words. There will be tens of thousnads of Dominicans who will swear that they will vote for Lionel but when they get into the voting both they will vote with their wallets. And for them Hippo is the quick way to a piece of the pie.

You could be right but, I sure hope you're wrong! For the good of the country, of course, and since you mention wallets, only a minority can benefit from Hippo's spreading out the nation's money on his reelection campaigning. Most people have been hit hard, as you well know, in the wallets by Hippo's disastrous economic policies and than SHOULD BE his downfall. Again, hope you're wrong!
 

frank alvarez

New member
Apr 13, 2004
282
0
0
Double Rounds

Fiesta Mama said:
I am very interested in world politics and have yet to have a full understanding of how things work in the DR in that respect. Many people on this board have mentioned that Hippo may win in the second round. What exactly is that? Does the election not work where the votes are counted and someone wins or is there always a round two? I apologize for my ignorance in advance.

In 1994, the DR constitution was modified to change the electionary process in which just a simple majority did not count. You have to have a clear majority of 50+1 which, in effect, is 50% of the votes plus one or more votes; if you do not, the two top finishers go to a second round (another election 45 days later) and by making alliances with the third place candidate and/or others, the guy that comes in second could, in fact, win in the second round.

In 1996, Leonel Fernandez came in second and made an alliance with the 3rd place finisher and won the presidency in the second round. In 2000, Hippo only got 49.85% of the votes, which technically required a second round,
but the second and third place finishers waved the second round elections (they were not able to consolidate their forces against Hippo for reasons too complicated to detail here) and Hippo was proclaimed the winner for the everlasting regret of the people of the DR.

As far as 2004 goes, if a miracle happens and Fernandez gets less than 50%, Hippo gets second and Estrella 3rd, the widespread feeling is that even so, Hippo could not win in the second round since most of Estrella's people most likely would swing their support to Fernandez who would win in the second round anyways. For the good of all of us, hopefully things will be settled in the first round so things can go back to what passes for normal here.
 

frank alvarez

New member
Apr 13, 2004
282
0
0
Hippo crossed my path!

Just an anecdote and sorry about 3 posts in a row but I must share this...after bashing Hippo in the two previous posts, when I left the office to go to lunch here in the boonies in the south of the DR, when I stopped to go on the main road, who is going across but Hippo himself in his typical huge motorcade of guards, press and hangers on. The funny thing was he was in a motor home which has a balcony in back and he is standing there, a la FDR or Truman during their whistlestop campaigns, speaking with a couple of guys and very relaxed in this huge motorcade surrounded by total silence. He looked funny as heck in his white 'chacabana', paunch and cowboy hat. He
is out and about trying to get votes out from under the rocks but I can see that the people are mostly indifferent and some downright hostile against him and his crowd. I think he is on his way out...
 

mountainfrog

On Vacation!
Dec 8, 2003
3,146
0
0
www.domrep-info.com
Deceiving Polls

Well, I have seen all those poll results but then I know that Dominicans seem to have a natural desire (or is it education?) to not answer the truth when asked.
And then, where were the opinion polls done?
In the parking lots of the big supermarkets in SD and Stgo.?
(Mind you, the interviewers are lazybones.)
There will be a second round.
To the advantage of the people who will (for another 45 days) continue to receive more money from the candidates ...

mountainfrog
 

ERICKXSON

Bronze
Dec 24, 2002
1,222
0
0
48
www.creambay.com
Tony C said:
They were stupid enough that 1 out of every 2 Dominicans Voted for the PRD 4 years ago despite their History. What makes you think they have gotten Smarter?

A few more Questions:
What makes you think that anything will improve in the DR if Fernandez gets elected?

What makes you think that anybody can save the DR from its economic plight without have to impose drastic measures? Massive Gov. Layoffs. Raising Taxes? Massive Belt Tighting?

What makes you think that Fernandez really wants the job knowing that the only way to save the country will be with implementing extremely unpopular measures?

You are just a................................
well he did it once and will do it again.....
 

skippys

New member
Jan 17, 2003
165
0
0
what a choice, eh???

who dresses the "H" man????
and why, in particular, is the US supportive of him, when he has done "nothing" for "his country". I know die hard white party people who will vote party, (tho' it seems very reluctantly), beacuse of "what the party has done for them" YET they are not able to feed their family, the one light bulb households that isn't even on 6 hours a day, and all they want is to go back to things the way they use to be, sweet mother, is there no future at all.
my US$ is on the "F" man in the first round, I never lived in a "socialist" country, is that what we are in for?????