Re: Democracy
Porfio_Rubirosa said:
I agree with Pib's position on democratically elected governments (and will leave the PRD to answer the question of whether they work well with uneducated, ignorant populations). I also agree that Bush's position of tacitly (and probably more than tacitly) supporting the golpistas in Venezuela was "hipo-critical" and harmed US credibility in the region (Jimmy Carter, where are you when we need you.)
That said, if Hipolito is tied to drug trafficing or money laundering, would he survive for five minutes in the face of US pressure??? Chavez has a very real and passionate (albeit sophomoric) ideology and a sizable number of real and passionate followers. They follow him for more than just hand-outs or promises of government jobs. The uneducated masses in the barrios really think he will change the country for the better. He also has strong support from the key military installation in Venezuela, and he is personally integrated into the command structure. Could any of this be said about Hipolito???
1. Chavez is a disaster for his country in so many senses it's hard to know where to start. But he was democratically elected, and the constitution was changed with a national referendum, so he should stay until voted out. Hopefully that will happen in an early election because he'll finally be forced to accept that the division his country now faces is hurting everyone there. But I'm not sanguine he'll opt for the greater good, because he seems quite stubborn & believes much of his own propaganda.
2. Many in the opposition trying to oust him is not much better. Many of them are the same people who supported a corrupt system that preceeded him and bled away Venezuela's chances of using pertodollars to transform the country positively. The ex-head of FEDECAMARAS who was briefly "interim president" last spring demonstrated the contempt some of them have for democracy when it doesn't suit them.
3. Chavez does have that solid 30% support, most of it among the poor factions. So even if he agrees to early elections, he may be tough to beat. Only if all the political factions can form a true united front can they defeat. Individually none of the traditional political parties can muster 30% these days.
4. Many people make much of Chavez's political support in the military, but they are not looking closely. Maybe among rank and file he does okay, and among his paratroop buddies, but the Navy has never been happy with him and there is much unease in the officer ranks. Why else do you think he has churned the armed forces leadership so often?
5. Where Chavez really hurt himself politically last spring was in dissing the unions. If he had kept them mollified, the coup might not have occured and the recent strike certainly would not be as effective as it has been. In Venezuela, it does not pay for a politician to disrespect the oil workers.
6. What the hell is a "Bolivarian Revolution"? If Chavez invented the term and he himself has never been able to really explain it, how can anyone else? I think Simon Bolivar must be spinning in his grave...
7. Folks, US policy toward Venezuela these days has more to do with Otto than it does George. Bush may be giving it some attention now because our oil supplies (both quantities and diversity of courses) are affected and the price of oil is affected, but before now he probably paid little attention and let State (and the CIA) "handle" it. We in the US would be even more worried if the wniter was colder than it has been, since much of our heating oil comes from Venezuela.
8. I'm afraid that it's only a matter of time before the DR faces a fuel crisis (with the obligatory impact at the pump), no matter what Hipo claims about security of supply & how much is stocked. Hipo pegged DR supplies to Venezuela, and now he is paying the price. Do you think even Chavez will long give the DR priority in shipments when exports are 1/4 normal levels and he is desparate for cash? When he looses money on every barrel sold to the DR because of the San Jose Agreement? Not even Chavez is that dense. So how will Hipo make up for the shortfall? Don't look for Mexico to save him. They have been trying to back out of the San Jose Agreement for years. Will the DR simply buy on the open market? Gee, and at what price, now that Venezuelan supplies drop & war with Iraq looms?
9. We all know that Hipo is linked to the cartels (in money laundering at least, if not more than that), and he has not won any friends in USG by being best buddy with Hipo. He has probably not received the wrath of USG because he's been good at kissing Bush's a*s, allowing US forces free run of DR waters & airspace, seeking an FTA with the US, saying nothing about the extradiction of Dominican convicts to the DR, probably even quietly cooperating with US Treasury in tracking money launderers & tax evaders. When he stops being "useful," or if he too seriously courts Fidel, just watch how quickly the US will start "discovering" how corrupt his Administration is & the pressure be applied!
Well, that's my jaundiced take on things, for what it's worth.
Regards,
Keith
Pam