We in DR have very little choice in this matter. It?s either nuclear or certain death. What?s it gonna be?
Sigh. A false dichotomy, Juan, and I think you're intelligent enough to know that it is, or at least to suspect that it is.
Please study carefully the following graphics from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP):
What does this tell you?
It should tell you that eliminating the DR's greenhouse gas emissions by switching its power supply to nuclear is not going to do much toward changing global climate change. Changing outputs in the US, Europe, Russia, China, India and Brazil will matter much more.
In truth, stopping deforestation on Hispanola will probably contribute as much or more to averting disruptive global climate change than changing the power supply emissions in the DR. And it would have the added "benefit" of averting the eventual transformation of the island into a dessert (did you read the story in today's "Hoy"?).
That is something Dominicans, and
probably only Dominicans, can directly change the the outcome of.
BTW, I am not as blown away by the citations to the
Scientific American piece as others seem to be. I subscribe to SA, and read the entire "Energy's Future Beyond Carbon." I also read the special
Economist piece from last week, the DR's communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, several reports by UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, among others. Why? Because I write on environment issues, including climate change, and in fact recently
blogged on its probable impact in Latin America and the Caribbean.
In short, increased nuclear power
might be a justifiable argument in those nations with huge or fast-growing, globally significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from power generation, but the DR is
not one of those. Wrong argument to use as the foundation for your support of nuclear power, Juan. Sorry.
If you read fully the
SA treatment of the issue, then you know that they pointed out several problems facing the possible expansion of nuclear power: (1) high initial capital costs; (2) the nuclear waste management issue; (3) nuclear proliferation (the security issue); (4) public acceptance.
None of these is insignificant for the DR. In your posts you have ignored all but the waste issue. And I have to wonder about your confidence on "finding the right hole" for it in the DR. Have you looked into the geologic requisites demanded by regulators for what is euphemistically termed by the industry as "long term storage" (decidedly
not disposal)? Does the DR have a deep-veined, geologically stable salt mine I don't know about that is not located in the middle of an ecological preserve or tourism pole??
You've also dodged the other issues I and others have raised on this thread, such as the DR's (long-term) record on health, safety and maintenance. It hurts to hear that brought up, I'm sure, but let's talk reality here. Especially when we are talking about an awesome responsibility like proper management of nuclear power plants and the nuclear fuel cycle.
Other problem you've conveniently ignored: persistent (
as in over the course of decades!) problems in fixing distribution and transmission efficiency, and the collections problem (including the government itself paying its own power bills!), neither of which will be fixed simply by changing power sources. If you're going to make the huge investment required for a nuclear power plant, you need to assure you can pay for it, or else all you're doing is digging a deeper debt burden for our Dominican children and grandchildren, Juan. How does that help the country?
You've also dodged the question I raised of switching dependency on foreign oil and coal to a dependency on foreign fuel rod reprocessors.
And what happens if you switch most or all your power grid to nuclear and the plant has to go off-grid for safety, environment or even maintenance? To get a proper ROI -- at least a real one, rather than one subsidized by assymetical long-term contracts signed by corrupt government officials, you need to get most of the country's power customers to be paying for that huge loan you took to build the nuclear plan. If it goes offline for any length of time (not un-imaginable in a Dominican context), what are you going to do? Rev up the hydroelectric plants? What if it happens during a long drought?
Get the point? In a country the size of Canada or the US, or a continent the size of Europe, with all their inter-connected grids, if a nuclear plant has to go ouffline for a week or so, the electric company can buy power from elsewehere on the grids or step up power generation from plants utilizing traditional fuels. Who will the DR buy from? Haiti? Or do you propose stringing transmission lines from Puerto Rico? Or are you proposing that the DR also keep a few traditional fuel plants on standby, with fuel reserves waiting? If so, from a cost point of view (since you'll have to pay those plants while they wait idle), what is the point of having the nuclear power plant in the first place?
I am puzzled by your citations on alternative sources. These are generalities; the
SA article was speaking of the globe as a whole, not the DR in particular. And that is what we're supposed to be debating here, isn't it?
If you've read the
Green Team blog, you'd know that you're quite wrong about the lack of real potential for alternative energy sources for the DR. I do agree that hydro is not the way for the DR -- it does not have the rivers for much potential improvement in power generation from that source (except in micro projects for local consumption), and if one believes any of the climate change models, the extreme climate and rainfall fluctuations the Caribbean can expect in the next 34 years would not make them a reliable source.
Sorry, Juan, but I just don't buy your arguments. As I said before, there are lots of better ways to spend that precious cash, including education and health.
If you truly are concerned about global climate change (and it sounds like you are), one of the lessons you'll take from the reports I blogged about is that small island nations like the DR would better spend their money on improving energy efficiency (in all its forms) and in
adaptation to climate change. The DR is more likely to be affected by harsher tropical storms, sea level rise (which may mean saltwater intrusion in some important Dominican acquifers), wild fluctuations in rainfall (and therefore water supplies), and increases in tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue.
So the Dominican population might be better served by improve civil defense planning and preparation, improvements in public health management and some true, sensible water resource management.
None of those require nuclear power, at least not in the DR's case. :glasses: