The DR and the Recession of 2008

[the gorgon]

by the way, PICHARDO, don't get me started on a reply to your remark about FDI Eden. if you think FDI works to improve the economy of target countries, then maybe i will have to suggest some reading material to you, so you can bone up on your undertanding of that matter.
you might want to start by reading a working paper or two on the matter. here is a good place to start;

Much Ado About Nothing; Do Domestic Firms Really Benefit From Foreign Direct Investment? this is written by Holger Gorg, and is available free as a PDF file.

let me know when you need more references.

 

[Expat13]

i will not speak for other islands, but the DR will NEVER leave Jamaica in any of your imaginary dust. know why? a few things; things

1)Human Capital. Jamaica has a far more educated and prepared population than the DR can hope to achieve in 50 years. Jamaican immigration to the core countries is brain drain; Dominican immigration is low education people going to the USA to get menial work. that explains why the average income charts for immigrants have Dominicans at second from the bottom, with Colombia at the floor. the creativity and entrepreneurship levels are completely different. Jamaica formatted the all inclusive hotel structure for the region, and everyone else uses it. Jamaica has a superior IT apparatus than the DR. things you consider to be innovations, Jamaica already had them, years ago.

2)Institutions; first you have to work on creating a semblance of a legal system, with assurances of property rights. you need a civil service, in which people who administer the country actually have a clue, and are not simply political appointees who spend a political cycle lining their pockets, but actually do some work.

do you really believe that any kind of minimum tech industries, such as light assembly and manufacturing, will only come to the DR, and not the other islands? what makes you think that? because you have a more educated workforce, with greater social capital?

Jamaica gave the world a product like TIA MARIA, and several other recognized household names. it gave the world the most universally accepted and enjoyed music genre. there are only two caribbean billionaires, both Jamaican. a Jamaican woman is the only black woman to have flown to both Antarctica and the Arctic circle. she is the only black woman flying the Dreamliner. when Emirates acquired their first A380 Airbus, the maiden voyage was to Sydney, Australia. it was flown there by a Jamaican pilot, and back to Dubai by another Jamaican. a country that produces this type of talent will never be left in the dust by any other country in the region. i concede that there have been several macroeconomic lapses of judgement among the economic directorate, which has caused the country to experience severe current account setbacks. however, the talent pool is way too deep to allow the country to be left in any of your imaginary dust. the cream will rise to the top..it always does.

You wont sell Pichardo, he will hunt down some fruitless info or stats that still prove the DR is the Caribbean leader. The reality which most of who live here see, is the reality. The level of corruption that prevents proper investment in education, hospitals and to create some sort of legal system that makes sense, so foreign investors and Dominicans alike are not in fear of being ripped off with no recourse, or worse killed. Hell as I said they cannot even see the detriment of throwing garbage in the streets.(Soil and air contamination, threat to animal and marine life, plugging of drainage systems causing flooding and diseases).

 

[the gorgon]

You wont sell Pichardo, he will hunt down some fruitless info or stats that still prove the DR is the Caribbean leader. The reality which most of who live here see, is the reality. The level of corruption that prevents proper investment in education, hospitals and to create some sort of legal system that makes sense, so foreign investors and Dominicans alike are not in fear of being ripped off with no recourse, or worse killed. Hell as I said they cannot even see the detriment of throwing garbage in the streets.(Soil and air contamination, threat to animal and marine life, plugging of drainage systems causing flooding and diseases).

heck, he is the guy who told us that electronic money was coming to a country in which a large percentage of the population cannot operate a debit card machine without help from somebody in the line.

 

[Expat13]

heck, he is the guy who told us that electronic money was coming to a country in which a large percentage of the population cannot operate a debit card machine without help from somebody in the line.

I heard of a group who are launching some Bitcoin merchants here but will be a novelty solution for teckys and international vistors. Regardless if digicurrencies exist in the DR, that doesn't correct the root dysfunction that keeps this a 3rd world country.

 

[Tamborista]

Bitcoin has taken a substantial hit the past year.

 

[the gorgon]

Bitcoin has taken a substantial hit the past year.

i regular old time ass whupping.

 

[the gorgon]

I heard of a group who are launching some Bitcoin merchants here but will be a novelty solution for teckys and international vistors. Regardless if digicurrencies exist in the DR, that doesn't correct the root dysfunction that keeps this a 3rd world country.

Expat, it is called "mindset". you can't fix that with technology and legislation.

when is the last time you saw a rank and file guy come up with some meaningful development? an invention, perhaps? go into a restaurant in Bavaro, one in Hatuey, and one in Nagua. ask for a simple meal. all three will taste the same, and have the same ingredients. no creative twists. none of those cooks has a different, innovative angle. if people do not put whatever creative juices they have to work, stagnation results. waiting for someone to come up with an idea, and copying it as closely as possibly, is not the recipe for advancement. go to a street in POP called Camino Real. every other store is a clothing store. as soon as one goes out of business, and the space becomes empty, another fool takes it to open another garment store. it never dawned on him that the last one went out of business because there were too many, to start. nope; he is going to make his work, because he is smarter than the guy who is 5 times his size, and can buy 1000 shirts when he buys a dozen.

 

[tommeyers]

There are two sides of the coin. The first has been described in facts an speculations.

The other side is of more interest to me. That is the people with educational, entreprenurial, global views that can see the opportunities here and can make a good living applying those skills.

So let's give thanks to those with less for creating the opportunities for many of us. But finally we each need to ask ourselves if we are maximizing our results with the resources we have. I have not in the last year and I am stepping up my efforts for the next year.

 

[Expat13]

Bitcoin has taken a substantial hit the past year.

I would NOT be a bear on Bitcoin yet. This is still a relatively new innovation, one that has some of the most successful respected people praising it. Using words like it is the most important new creation since the internet, it will transform how we transact. Its not just about a currency its more about the 'blockchain". This negative chart above is a result of a few security breaches within some of the exchanges. This sent people selling in fear because its still early on, but to put in a true prospective, data and credit card breaches in past year alone amount to multi billions of dollars, yet we still use our cards at merchants and online.
I remember back when the internet came out and all the naysayers comments, its cool when you can look back on this stuff.

 

[playacaribe2]

I would NOT be a bear on Bitcoin yet. This is still a relatively new innovation, one that has some of the most successful respected people praising it. Using words like it is the most important new creation since the internet, it will transform how we transact. Its not just about a currency its more about the 'blockchain". This negative chart above is a result of a few security breaches within some of the exchanges. This sent people selling in fear because its still early on, but to put in a true prospective, data and credit card breaches in past year alone amount to multi billions of dollars, yet we still use our cards at merchants and online.
I remember back when the internet came out and all the naysayers comments, its cool when you can look back on this stuff.

Alternative currencies and their promoters have been around for a long long time.

The only one still standing is the gold/silver trade....and they really are not currencies as much as they are commodities.

It's called Bitcoin today.....but seems like only yesterday Larry Ellison of Oracle fame created Beenz.

Then there was Flooz.

Nothing new....just a different platform.

On a side note, what do Bitcoin and Venezuelan Bolivars have in common?

The answer is....both have lost more than 50% of their value in less than a year.

Bitcoin makes the peso look good....stability wise.

Bring on Pichardo's e-currency.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[Expat13]

Alternative currencies and their promoters have been around for a long long time.

The only one still standing is the gold/silver trade....and they really are not currencies as much as they are commodities.

It's called Bitcoin today.....but seems like only yesterday Larry Ellison of Oracle fame created Beenz.

Then there was Flooz.

Nothing new....just a different platform.

On a side note, what do Bitcoin and Venezuelan Bolivars have in common?

The answer is....both have lost more than 50% of their value in less than a year.

Bitcoin makes the peso look good....stability wise.

Bring on Pichardo's e-currency.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

I think I will stay on the positive side along with the long list of respected people you will see on this link
Bitcoin Quotations | Best Quotes on Bitcoin
Its far more than a currency, its a protocol, the "block chain" behind it is brilliant and will change how we transact, its always easy to shout the doomsday news, the media has programmed us to tout negativity rather than the positives, bad news sells good news doesn't.
Here are some reasons why its useful and will be around...... Why use bitcoin? - CoinDesk

Even Apple, our worlds top company had a stock price fall in 2012, that lost 35Billion almost overnight. I remember the doomsdayers then stating it was heading down....

 

[playacaribe2]

I think I will stay on the positive side along with the long list of respected people you will see on this link
Bitcoin Quotations | Best Quotes on Bitcoin
Its far more than a currency, its a protocol, the "block chain" behind it is brilliant and will change how we transact, its always easy to shout the doomsday news, the media has programmed us to tout negativity rather than the positives, bad news sells good news doesn't.
Here are some reasons why its useful and will be around...... Why use bitcoin? - CoinDesk

Even Apple, our worlds top company had a stock price fall in 2012, that lost 35Billion almost overnight. I remember the doomsdayers then stating it was heading down....

And I will stay on the pragmatic/realist side....because afterall....at least the dollar is insured and fairly steady in value.

What's the quote...."a fool and his money are soon parted."

Bitcoin cannot survive in its present form...period.

No currency in history has ever survived without backing by someone (government) or something (commodities like gold/silver).....and I doubt Bitcoin will be the first.

It is not backed by anyone or anything and its value is highly erratic. Not a good platform to conduct business..neither in cyberspace or the real world.

The link you supplied contains a bogus misquote of Chairman Bernanke...but has been used by countless of bitcoin backers' websites to engender acceptance by main stream economists/economics....to wit;

Ben Bernanke On Bitcoin - Business Insider

Apple is a stock....not a currency...it is an apples to oranges comparison (no pun intended)....but I did enjoy that ride as I was short Apple stock.....and as I posted previously, bought lots of new bunk beds for an orphanage in Santiago.

Bitcoin as it currently stands cannot be anything more than an outlier.

Short the euro against gold....but do not buy Bitcoins.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[Expat13]

And I will stay on the pragmatic/realist side....because afterall....at least the dollar is insured and fairly steady in value.

What's the quote...."a fool and his money are soon parted."

Bitcoin cannot survive in its present form...period.

No currency in history has ever survived without backing by someone (government) or something (commodities like gold/silver).....and I doubt Bitcoin will be the first.

It is not backed by anyone or anything and its value is highly erratic. Not a good platform to conduct business..neither in cyberspace or the real world.

The link you supplied contains a bogus misquote of Chairman Bernanke...but has been used by countless of bitcoin backers' websites to engender acceptance by main stream economists/economics....to wit;

Ben Bernanke On Bitcoin - Business Insider

Apple is a stock....not a currency...it is an apples to oranges comparison (no pun intended)....but I did enjoy that ride as I was short Apple stock.....and as I posted previously, bought lots of new bunk beds for an orphanage in Santiago.

Bitcoin as it currently stands cannot be anything more than an outlier.

Short the euro against gold....but do not buy Bitcoins.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

You fail to see the value and continue to think only currency rather than the innovation which will be adopted by banks, western unions when they have no other choice. Time has come where a financial transaction should be immediate and low fees, this will change the way we transact. Im sure Bill Gates and the others are all misquotes as well.

 

[playacaribe2]

You fail to see the value and continue to think only currency rather than the innovation which will be adopted by banks, western unions when they have no other choice.

So, what exactly is this value and innovation you speak of?

Time has come where a financial transaction should be immediate and low fees, this will change the way we transact.

Speed of conducting and clearing transactions is at the mercy of cybercrime....just ask some of the people who made a market in bitcoin....and then ask how much money their customers lost. They don't like to talk about that.

I readily admit that as a board member of a financial institution, I have a bias. But, that bias goes to protecting depositors....and their deposits.

Im sure Bill Gates and the others are all misquotes as well.

I am not sure about the rest of the quotes either, but the credibility of the site/article is in question when their lead quote from the person in charge of arguably the biggest financial institution on earth, is patently false.

The advent of e-commerce and e-banking poses enough security risks on its own....and will evolve without adding in bitcoins and its no one knows who is in charge....or who is responsible....when the inevitable stuff hits the fan.

That's a big brother Orwellian proposition I can do without.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[chic]

Alternative currencies and their promoters have been around for a long long time.

The only one still standing is the gold/silver trade....and they really are not currencies as much as they are commodities.

It's called Bitcoin today.....but seems like only yesterday Larry Ellison of Oracle fame created Beenz.

Then there was Flooz.

Nothing new....just a different platform.

On a side note, what do Bitcoin and Venezuelan Bolivars have in common?

The answer is....both have lost more than 50% of their value in less than a year.

Bitcoin makes the peso look good....stability wise.

Bring on Pichardo's e-currency.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

im going to run out and buy some bitcoin ...can we carry bitcoin? is it large ?

 

[chic]

i think the recession is diggin in again...i believe there is going to be another drop....in jobs, work force, an increase in delinquents, foreclosures, bankrupcys and more financial troubles all around for tourism, dr. and related countries...

 

[playacaribe2]

i think the recession is diggin in again...i believe there is going to be another drop....in jobs, work force, an increase in delinquents, foreclosures, bankrupcys and more financial troubles all around for tourism, dr. and related countries...

A recession is not likely in the US as our economy is mending...albeit too slowly. The EU (some countries, not all) will come out of recession as soon as Draghi announces the 500 million Euro (estimated) stimulus to be announced this week.

The growth rate in the DR has been helped by the US climbing out of its economic malaise. There should be no recession in the DR absent a Black Swan event.

The DR will likely be affected (tourism) by the drop in value of the EURO....expect that to continue.

The problems for the DR were and continue to be spending/borrowing, corruption and oil.

Oil is the more complicated issue and to some extent outside of the DR's control.

Petrocaribe, whereby the DR receives subsidized oil and pays back long term is in imminent danger. And the ending of that agreement will upend the finances of the DR...as they will now have to purchase oil on much shorter credit terms.....that's the bad news.

The good news is the price of oil has dropped precipitously and the DR...like most countries will pay less to import....which also is bad news...from a tax/budgetary perspective.

The DR's budget was likely set utilizing much higher pump prices. Every time the price of a gallon of gas drops, it is less pesos in the Treasury (remember the government sets the price...not the free market....and currently pays only a nominal sum to Venezuela and uses the rest of the money internally), and this price drop per gallon ostensibly leaves less pesos to meet existing budgetary requirements.

To offset the coming shortfall, the DR will likely head back to the IMF, institute new taxes (with the price down it's a good time to institute new gas taxes), increase fees, or sell bonds. The expected shortfall in this years budget is not likely to be closed by increased tourism, remittances or exports.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[the gorgon]

A recession is not likely in the US as our economy is mending...albeit too slowly. The EU (some countries, not all) will come out of recession as soon as Draghi announces the 500 million Euro (estimated) stimulus to be announced this week.

The growth rate in the DR has been helped by the US climbing out of its economic malaise. There should be no recession in the DR absent a Black Swan event.

The DR will likely be affected (tourism) by the drop in value of the EURO....expect that to continue.

The problems for the DR were and continue to be spending/borrowing, corruption and oil.

Oil is the more complicated issue and to some extent outside of the DR's control.

Petrocaribe, whereby the DR receives subsidized oil and pays back long term is in imminent danger. And the ending of that agreement will upend the finances of the DR...as they will now have to purchase oil on much shorter credit terms.....that's the bad news.

The good news is the price of oil has dropped precipitously and the DR...like most countries will pay less to import....which also is bad news...from a tax/budgetary perspective.

The DR's budget was likely set utilizing much higher pump prices. Every time the price of a gallon of gas drops, it is less pesos in the Treasury (remember the government sets the price...not the free market....and currently pays only a nominal sum to Venezuela and uses the rest of the money internally), and this price drop per gallon ostensibly leaves less pesos to meet existing budgetary requirements.

To offset the coming shortfall, the DR will likely head back to the IMF, institute new taxes (with the price down it's a good time to institute new gas taxes), increase fees, or sell bonds. The expected shortfall in this years budget is not likely to be closed by increased tourism, remittances or exports.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

why would the cost of petroleum at the pump affect the DR government revenue stream? as long as they fix the tax per gallon sold, and that remains constant, they actually derive more revenue, as demand picks up when the price goes down.

 

[the gorgon]

by the way, PICHARDO, no caribbean country with this kind of talent pool gets left in anybody's dust

Norman Manley shocks Yale - News - JamaicaObserver.com

 

[Criss Colon]

500,000,000 is not much of a ?Stimulus Package???????????????
Kind of like pi$$ing in the ocean and waiting for the level to rise!!!!!
CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC