No one can confirm, the testing is minimal, the published numbers are questionable, and I'm not an expert nor would I pretend to be.
But I'm with you, my thinking is that if it's there (that's confirmed) and social distancing is minimal at best, then it must be ripping through.
Things I'm not sure of -
+How many people get sick / die and don't bother going to the hospital for variety of reasons- (b/c the faster is goes through then the sooner there's a heard immunity)
+How strong the general population immune system already is - ( the health care system doesn't generally keep the marginally healthy people alive the same way a more advance system can)
and to bring it back to topic
+How long after it goes through (and the DR open) until tourists are going to come back in mass - not the hard cores that will always come, but the general masses