The Gallup-Rumbo Magazine poll carried out between 18-23 February throughout the country, which is recognized as the most impartial of the opinion polls and has a good track record at forecasting election results, indicates that José Francisco Peña Gómez, the presidential candidate for the PRD and the Acuerdo de Santo Domingo minority party coalition, gained six points in the past three months over his nearest contender, Leonel Fernández, of the PLD. Indeed, Leonel lost three points and Jacinto gained two, when compared to the poll held last November. Dr Peña Gómez still does not have enough of a lead to win the election. Following a change in the Constitution during the 1994 election, the winner must gain 50%+1 of the total vote to win in the first round. The Gallup poll shows that 43 out of every 100 Dominicans say they will vote for Dr Peña Gomez, 33 support Dr Fernández, and 18 favor Jacinto Peynado of the PRSC. In the analysis of the poll published in the 28 Feb.-5 March edition of the weekly magazine, Dr Peña is shown to be most popular in the South, with 47% versus the 29% of Dr Leonel and the 19% for Peynado, and in the important Santo Domingo area, 43% go for Dr Peña, 37% for Dr Leonel and 15% for Mr Peynado. In the Cibao, Dr Peña is ahead with 41% of the vote, Dr Leonel has 32% and Mr Peynado has 20%.
The magazine attributes Dr Peña’s six point gain to the alliance with the Partido Revolucionario Independiente and to strong campaigning in Santo Domingo. Dr Peña also gained a five point advantage over Leonel Fernandez in the important Cibao. In the November poll he was only one point ahead of Dr Fernandez.
The poll also looked into the certainty of the voters. It indicated that 84% of those who said they will vote for Mr Peynado are sure they will vote for him. In Dr Peña Gómez’s case, the loyalty is even more firm, with 92% of those saying they will vote for him, confirming they are quite sure they will. Dr Leonel obtained a “sure” response from 87% of his supporters.
The Gallup/Rumbo poll surveyed 1,200 registered voters in 120 areas of the country. 39% of them were in the North part of the country, 31% in the National District, 11% in the East and 19% in the Southwest. The voters were evenly divided between men and women. As to their ages, 39% were 25-39 years, 27% were 40-54 years old, 17% were 18-24 years and 17% were 55+. The poll has a 3% margin of error.