A report in the newspaper Hoy indicates that from November 1995 to May 1996, nine national and foreign companies have made known the partial results of opinion polls on the voters’ preferences. This makes this election the one with the most such polls, not taking into account the large number that have not been made public. Hoy reports that in 15 of the polls, the candidate of the PRD and the Acuerdo de Santo Domingo, José Francisco Peña Gómez, is ahead, and only two show Leonel Fernández as being in the lead.
The latest Rumbo-Gallup poll showed Dr Peña Gómez has registered an increase, climbing to a high of 46% versus the 37% of Leonel Fernández. The poll was held between the 28 April to 4 May. Gallup has held four polls. In the first, held in November 1995, Dr Peña Gómez was ahead by 34%, with 24% for Leonel Fernández. But in the second poll held in February, and subsequent ones in March, April and May, Dr Fernández took the lead. The polls are showing that Dr Fernández will pick up most of the votes that would have gone to support Jacinto Peynado, who is expected to be placed third.
The great majority and the most creditable of the polls show that none of the candidates has enough support to win the first round. In the past, the winner just needed a straight majority. The three most reliable polls undertaken by Gallup, Penn & Schoen, and the Global Strategy Group point to a win by Leonel Fernández in the second round.