2003News

J P Morgan verdict on economy

Wall Street investment bank J P Morgan’s latest report on the Dominican economy states that the government has no coherent strategy to put the agreement with the International Monetary Fund back on track and face the 2004 Presidential elections without debt repayment problems. J P Morgan sees no end in sight to the power-supply crisis in the medium term and regards the current political climate as “extremely divisive” for the country’s stability. The report also comments that the government shows no signs of reducing public spending in the run-up to the next election. The US government’s support for the Dominican Republic remains stable, however, and the report points to the fact the DR has sent troops to Iraq. The prospect for debt-repayment is daunting, according to the pundits, and it is likely that the Dominican government will fall behind on its repayments in the near future, with US$192 million due in the next three months. The report reveals that a recent attempt by the Dominican Central Bank to renegotiate the terms of repayment with the Paris Club was met with the advice that their requests would only be considered once the IMF agreement has been finalized. Turning to the banking sector, the report states that it appears there are “no more skeletons in the closet”. The IMF’s stipulations to contain public spending will be difficult to achieve, says J P Morgan, who also looked into the question of the Central Bank certificates that are being held back for one year, having been offered originally on a one-, three- and six-month basis. The current economic uncertainty makes it difficult to provide reliable predictions, says the report, and until the IMF stand-by agreement is back on track it will be impossible to cite concrete figures.