In today’s El Caribe, Pedro Silverio, the head economist at the Cenantillas economic think tank, says there are some strange numbers floating around. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) has forecast that Latin American economies will grow by 1.5%, while the Dominican economy, according to the IMF, will shrink by 3%. Moreover, the DR will have higher inflation and devaluation rates than our neighbors in the area. According to the IMF, the Dominican economy suffered a US$2.3-billion hit in 2001 and 2002, but Silverio says that if we measure this external blow against the deficit in the balance of payments and the relation to the GDP, we will see that the external shocks in 2001 and 2002 were of less impact than the external blows in 2000. Silverio says that if the effects of the NYC World Trade attacks, oil prices and the deceleration of the industrialized economies wreaked havoc on the Dominican economy, the evidence of this should be seen in the balance of payments. The truth is, however, that during the period between 2001 and 2003, the deficit was improving and in January of 2003 showed a surplus. Furthermore, during the 1997-2000 period, the deficit grew until hitting its high in 2000. All external effects aside, however, recent internal blows have also contributed to the Dominican economy’s suffering, namely the so-called “hole” created by the Baninter collapse. Silverio says that in reality this gap was the result of two factors whose responsibility rests squarely on the government. The first has to do with the supervision of the banking system. Monetary authorities were “Olympic” in their lack of supervision and tried to find a political solution to the case. This effort caused billions to be used without legal reason. The second factor is related to the way in which the government handled the collapse, which brought about greater inflation and further devaluation, and forced the hand of the Central Bank into making serious commitments in the present and future that will be hard to honor without deepening the crisis. For the first time in 10 years, the Dominican economy will grow at a lesser rate than the US economy, in spite of a slight recovery in the tourism and industrial sectors. Silverio closes his piece by saying that the responsibility for the crisis rests on the shoulders of the government, who managed to place the performance of the economy on a par with Venezuela’s. Therefore, should there be an explosion within society and the government is interested in finding out who is to blame, they have only to find a mirror…and look into it.