2004News

Silverio preaches austerity

As the head of the Cenantillas economic research group at the PUCMM in Santo Domingo, economist Pedro Silverio takes a look at public spending issues facing the incoming government. In his El Caribe column, Silverio reviews Keynesian economic thinking on public spending and rejects the classic model for economic expansion, preferring instead a modified model whereby the government expenditures are contained within a balanced budget, thereby avoiding the mid-term problems of recession and fiscal maneuvering. He cautions, however, that the balanced budget should not include any increased taxation or spending. Instead, Silverio argues for a controlled spending plan for the incoming government, keeping domestic and foreign credit under tight controls whether it be with bankers or suppliers. He points out that such a plan was not followed by the current authorities, who acted as if financing was unlimited. The pundit says that the PLD should look back on their previous term of office and realize that while public investment was lower than the norm of the previous decade, private investment was much higher than previous years ? the reverse of what happened with the PRD government, of which the results are obvious. Silverio ends his sermon with the observation that within the context of and economic crisis, where recession, inflation and unemployment are combined, it is possible to give in to the temptation of applying a fiscal policy based on a strong expansion of government spending. Nonetheless, this would be counterproductive in an atmosphere of strong pressures towards devaluation and inflation. His conclusion: Austerity is an obvious necessity.