In a op-ed contribution to Diario Libre today, Thursday 18 June 2015, former Dominican ambassador in Washington, D.C. and PUCMM Law School dean, Flavio Dario Espinal examines the major changes that have occurred in Dominican politics in the past three months.
He observes that the effects of the changes are yet to be known. One result of the change to the 2010 Constitution that allows President Danilo Medina to run for re-election is the ousting of former President Leonel Fernandez from a leading role in an election for the first time. He points out that Fernandez has been a top player for a long period.
He comments on the way that the PRD under Miguel Vargas Maldonado has now become an overt ally of President Danilo Medina, as a result of the alliance created for the PLD to receive the votes it needed to push re-election through Congress, but at the same time this establishes a political alliance for other government posts, at a time when voter support for the PRD under Vargas had collapsed to a minimum. Nevertheless, he speculates that the risk is that there may be processes that get out of control and end up negatively affecting the PLD as a result of the alliance and especially of the shared government posts.
Turning to the PRSC, he says that nothing has happened and it will continue to be the joker in the card game in benefit of the ruling PLD, but this time having to share space with the PRD, which could result in its continued weakening as a political party.
Espinal writes: “This realignment of political forces is a great opportunity for the new Revolutionary Modern Party (PRM) and candidate Luis Abinader. With the decanting of the political-electoral scenario, this party becomes the principal axis for opposition forces. If it runs an effective campaign it could attract sectors that seek a change versus the PLD continuing in power. Nevertheless, its main limitation is its opponent, President Medina, a highly popular politician who has secured a widespread political coalition for greater strength, both for his candidacy as well as to those the coalition presents at congressional and municipal levels.
He advises the PRM to pursue an alliance with Alianza Pais, which the latest polls show as a major player. “Of course there are many factors n focus, ideology, traditions, styles, that block the possibility of an agreement between these two political forces, but what is true is that an alliance between them would give more strength to the opposition. Only time will tell if this will happen or not.”
http://www.diariolibre.com/opinion/2015/06/18/i1200101_cambios-juego-poltico.html