The Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner-Diario Libre and the Centro Economico del Cibao polls, 21-24 February 2020 indicate Luis Abinader of the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) has capitalized the indignation of Dominican voters after the aborting of the 16 February municipal election.
Greenberg shows Luis Abinader of the leading opposition PRM party now has the needed 50%+ 1 vote to win in a first round. Previous polls had shown a second round vote would be needed. The Greenberg poll now shows Abinader winning with 52% of the vote, followed by 24% of Gonzalo Castillo of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), who has the backing of President Danilo Medina and 17% of former President Leonel Fernández, who is running for the People’s Force.
Political analysts say that the young people vote has made the difference. After the suspension of the polls, young people began to demand an explanation on what happened. The government has now entrusted the OAS to prepare the explanation.
Greenberg says that only 13% of the country is on the right track. The unfavorable rate of Medina is 58% only surpassed by his chosen presidential candidate Gonzalo Castillo’s 63%.
The Greenberg-Diario Libre poll reveals that the main concerns of the Dominican voters are corruption (45%), unemployment (28%), citizen security (27%< Haitian migration (21%), drugs and drug trafficking (19%), cost of living (16%), education (14%), health (13%), energy and blackouts (5%), environment (4%).
77% of the voters favored the country take a different path than that marked by the ruling Dominican Liberation Party.
Journalist Altagracia Salazar reports that those polled by the Centro Economico del Cibao on the same 21-24 February date say Luis Abinader will win with 55%, 21% will vote for Gonzalo Castillo, and 15% for Leonel Fernández. The poll indicates that if Vice President Margarita Cedeño were the candidate, the results would be similar.
On the other hand, the Mark Penn/Stagwell-Noticias SIN on congressional and municipal candidates indicates that Carolina Mejía, running for mayor on the PRM ticket, will win with 52% in the National District. She is competing against Domingo Contreras of the PLD, who received 33% in the poll. Johnny Ventura of the People’s Force would receive 6%.
The Penn poll also reveals that in Santo Domingo East, Manuel Jiménez of the PRM would win with 53% against 28% of Luis Adalberto Tejada of the ruling PLD. In Santiago, Abel Martínez of the PLD would win with 42%, compared to 32% of Ulises Rodríguez of the PRM. Abel Martínez has the backing of dissident groups within the ruling PLD party.
In Higuey, Rafael Duluc 44% of the PRM would defeat 39% Karina Aristy (PLD), who was running for a fifth term.
At the congressional level, candidate to senator for the PRM Faride Raful leads with 14 points over Rafael Paz who is running for the PLD in the National District. Eduardo Estrella of Dominicanos por el Cambio-PRM leads with one point over Julio Cesar Valentin of the PLD in Santiago.
Cristina Lizardo of the PLD leads Antonio Taveras by three points in Santo Domingo province. Amable Aristy in Higuey has 53%.
The presidential and congressional election is scheduled for 17 May, the municipal election was rescheduled for 15 March 2020.
An opinion piece in Diario Libre today, written by economist Eduardo García Michel, who resigned being part of the Monetary Board, captures much of the criticism that explains the decline in popularity of the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) and President Medina.
Follow the story in Spanish:
Diario Libre
Noticias SIN
CDN
Diario Libre
YouTube – Altagracia Salazar sin Maquillaje
3 March 2020