Just 37 days from the beginning of the official hurricane season of 2022, investigators from the North Carolina State University have agreed with the forecasters of the Weather Channel (reported previously by DR1 News) that this will be a busy season with more than a normal number of named storms and hurricanes.
The North Carolina specialists are calling for between 17 and 21 named storms with perhaps between seven and nine becoming hurricanes. The long-term average (1951 to 2021) for named storms is 11, so the Tarheel forecast is not to be taken likely. The forecast was presented by Professor Lian Xie, who is a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences. Professor Xie also forecasts intense storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Xie bases the forecast on the study of over 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity and weather patterns.
Researchers from Colorado State University on 7 April 2022 had forecast above-average activity for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. The CSU forecast calls for 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in 2022.
The Climate Adaptation Center says that 2022 is looking similar to 2021, a busy year that resulted in 200 deaths mainly in drownings and over US$80 billion in damage. The CAC explains that the same two main ingredients that caused the major damages in 2021 are again present this year. Warmer sea surface temperatures and a lack of wind shear due to La Nina conditions in the Pacific helped create a very active season featuring storms unleashing nearly double the energy of an average season.
The CAC says that the Caribbean + US eastern coast area waters are already warm enough to spawn tropical storms this spring. This means that any storm traveling or forming over these areas will get a big energy boost that can fuel the rapid intensification of storms from tropical storm to major hurricane in a day or so.
As usual for this time of the year, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) has released the names for this year’s storms. They are: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie and Walter.
The Atlantic hurricane season is from 1 June to 30 November. The peak time for the Dominican Republic is the month of September.
Meanwhile, the weather alerts for the country have been removed for next week. Light rains continue to be forecast, nevertheless.
Read more:
North Carolina State University
The Climate Adaptation Center
CBS17
Colorado State University hurricane forecast
Hoy
Onamet
25 April 2022