Mark Penn/Stagwell released the findings of its April poll on who is most likely to win the 19 May 2024 presidential election in the Dominican Republic, poll representative Bernardo Vega reports. Face-to-face polls were carried out and 1,206 respondents said who they are likely to vote for. The polls were carried out from 25 to 28 April 2024. The survey was conducted freshly after the presidential debate on 24 April 2024. The margin of error of the poll is 2.8%.
The Mark Penn/Stagwell poll revealed that if the vote were held on the polling date, President Luis Abinader (PRM) would have won in the first round with 57%. 24% of the likely voters said they would vote for three-time former President Leonel Fernandez (FP). Former Santiago Mayor Abel Martínez (PLD) would receive 12% of the vote. 2% say they would vote for another party and 5% are undecided.
The poll revealed 97% of PRM supporters would vote for Luis Abinader and 95% of Fuerza del Pueblo supporters would vote for Leonel Fernández. In his analysis of the findings, Bernardo Vega calls attention to the interesting detail that 73% of PLD supporters would vote for Abel Martínez, because 21% would vote for Leonel Fernández and 6% for Abinader. PLD was the ruling party during the Fernandez administrations.
Men and older people are the ones who tend to have decided to vote for. While 86% of the PRM followers and 84% of those of the People’s Force have decided who they will vote for, only 72% of those who identify with the PLD have made up their minds.
Among those who do not favor any particular party, 44% have decided who to vote for, and 38% are undecided. Among the unpartisan voters (39% of the surveyed voters), 45% said they would vote for Luis Abinader, 28% for Leonel Fernández and 14% for Abel Martínez.
Vega explains that the intention to vote for Luis Abinader has increased 10 points in the last 12 months, while the intention to vote for Leonel Fernández has dropped 8 points and in the case of Abel Martínez 7 points.
The US polling company estimates that 70% of Dominicans are decided on who they will vote for.
Mark Penn/Stagwell says that Abinader has his strongest following among women and older voters.
The polling company says it found that for young voters, the largest voter group, the most important quality voters look for is the candidate’s ability to bring changes to the country. Past track records matter more to older people.
Mark Penn and his companies have been conducting political polls in the Dominican Republic for more than 40 years.
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Noticias SIN
El Caribe
Hoy
7 May 2024