Most economists, plus you too, still held to the simplistic notion that a recession is simply 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.Malibrook, NBER reaches conclusions well after it has been evident that the economy is behaving differently. Case in point, they reached the conclusion that the US economy was in recession almost a year after most economists had noticed that the economy was in recession.
Are you now trying to claim that you saw the recession well before the NBER proclamation?
It sure does not seem like it based on this post of yours from 11/20/08, a mere 1 month before the NBER declaration.
You remind me of the experts who ridiculed Peter Schiff.
YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)
What is it with people in this website that they often want to discredit those who know what they are talking about, especially if they are professionals in the field they express their opinion on!
Simple, a recession is a decline in GDP on 2 consecutive quarters or more.
They look at other factors, but at the end of the day, when their data shows what date a recession started, it just so happens that the GDP shows that same time period as such as well.
Hence, anyone who wants to believe that a recession is anything other than a decline in GDP for 2 consecutive quarter or more has to be either dumb, wishful thinking, or both!
Note, that doesn't include ANYONE from the NBER, but it does include SOMEONE who is trying to deny the undeniable.
On the day it has been made crystal clear and accepted by the major economists of the world, major institutions, and such in the profession of economics that a recession is anything else but a minimum of 2 consecutive quarters with negative GDP growth, then and only then will I change my mind.
That day is certainly not today since nothing new has been said, and the old definition holds true which explains why it has not been rejected within the profession and why to this day its whats taught in economics courses in universities worldwide!
Good night!
-NALs (11/20/08)
In December 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared that the United States had been in recession since December 2007.
Late-2000s recession - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia