Hurricane Isabel

[maryanne]

Only time will tell

ACcording to CNN:
"Maximum sustained winds were near 115 mph (185 km/h), making Isabel a Category 3 hurricane. Forecasters said Isabel could strengthen over the next 24 hours and could become a Category 4 hurricane later Monday or Tuesday.

The NHC said the storm would likely approach the Caribbean on a path similar to the one followed by Hurricane Fabian, which slammed Bermuda late last week. But the forecasts for Isabel do not include the northeasterly turn that sent Fabian toward the British territory. "

We should know by mid week if Isabel turns north.

 

[XanaduRanch]

The numbers are with us for a northward move, but it looks like Isabel up to now, is finding it hard to nudge a little to the north.

I am sorry Chris. I don't understand.

The forecaster here is saying what I've been saying all along in that there is simply no mechanism around or forecast that would induce a northward turn. During the forecast model runs on Fabian the NHC consistently averaged all the computer models and then rather than taking the center track, forecast a slightly more southerly one, and Fabian actually was still a little to the left (south) of the official forecast track.

Now, two of the guidance models are actually adding in a southerly turn as the system approaches Puerto Rico. This is an even worse scenario for the north coasts of PR and the DR.

My guess is you'll begin seeing that reflected in the official track by around 11Pm tonight.

Tom (aka XR)

Edited to add:
We now have TD14 off the African coast as well. This is expected to become Tropical Storm Juan in the next 24-48 hours. I just hope the heavy rains don't interefere with my watching NFL Footbal next Sunday afternoon. Go Vikings!

 

[maryanne]

I'll be watching what progresses over the next few days.
Isabel will probably be stronger than Fabian.

Maryanne

 

[Ken]

Now, two of the guidance models are actually adding in a southerly turn as the system approaches Puerto Rico. This is an even worse scenario for the north coasts of PR and the DR.

Yes it is, and that is what the CNN weather man was illustrating when he nailed the north shores of PR and the DR with his chalk this morning.

When storms threaten, the churches in Samana hold prayer service. This has seemed to serve them well in the past, and hopefully will do so again.

 

[ajicaribe]

Cruz de cenizas

We are making cruz de cenizas in Samana so that it does not come around here, or the island.

Dios mio libranos.
Aj

 

[Chris]

I am sorry Chris. I don't understand.

Sorry XR, thinking in Afrikaans, functioning in Spanish and writing in English (and spoke German to the Germans early this morning). This all makes for real screwed up sentences sometimes.

All I was trying to say, is that historically the numbers are in our favor in terms of a northerly turn. But for this storm, I do not see any evidence, or hope, for a northerly turn. I think we're going to feel the effect of this storm - not wanting to think negatively, or be a fear monger, I think we should start doing preparatory things.

ajicaribe - what is "cruz de cenizas"?

 

[maryanne]

what is "cruz de cenizas"?

I'm going to guess "sign of the cross'.

Maryanne

 

[Ken]

cenizas are ashes.

 

[Conchman]

Can someone tell me the exact reason as to why this storm is not projected to make the normal northerly turn? Is it because of a high pressure system to the north that is expected to push it more southerly? If thats the case, where can we see a weather map of this H-pressure area?

 

[Ken]

You'll find an explanation in this discussion, conchman http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/081452.shtml?

 

[XanaduRanch]

As with most things in life, Conchman, it's a bit more complicated than that.

Meteorologists don't think so much in terms of high or low pressure per se despite what you see on TV. The atmosphere is more like a lake, just with gases instead of liquids. Instead we speak of heights What's the 800mb height, for example? That is how high above seal level do you have to go to reach a particular level of pressure. The higher you have to go, then the higher the pressure. This results in not just one map, but many maps of the atmospheric pressure at various 'height's and we're talking about height in pressure not in linear measurement.

Confused yet? Sorry!

What it boils down to is to think of the atmosphere as a contour or topographical map with hills and valleys. Right now there is a large hill north of the hurricane (most require this to develop as it cuts down on shear that might otherwise tear the system apart) and this hill is building westward so there's no valley for the hurricane to 'roll' into and curve northward. At the same time a trough, or valley, is developing behind the hurricane between it and Africa. Watch soon to be Tropical Storm Juan south of the Azores. It should roll right, or northeastward, into this valley and not follow the same track as Isabel.

Tom (aka XR)

 

[Conchman]

It seems (correct me if I'm wrong) that 'official' predictions with regards to significant changes in direction of hurricane tracks are often 'understated.' For example, the turn to the North by Fabian. I have noticed this with other storms in the past.

This would mean that the predicted turn to the west/south by Isabel could be more intense (south) then currently forecasted - which would be bad news for Puerto Rico/Dom. Rep.

 

[XanaduRanch]

Nothing New

The 5PM update still has Isabel on a beeline for the north coast. In fact it's a little farther west at 63W/20N in the projections than before (previously 62.5W/20N) with sustained winds of around 145mph at that time. Two of the models continue a southerly vector component after a few days. Let's hope that the wind field remains small. We're at 70W/19.75N. Half a degree won't spare Xanadu from a straight north wind at about 75-100mph at that distance late Sunday night through Monday night.

:: sigh ::

 

[Ken]

If I were living on the shore, I'd be at least as concerned about the storm surge as I would be the wind. If the storm does follow a westward track, the waves experienced from Fabian will look pretty small in comparison.

 

[Cleef]

Blah blah blah blah blah....

...you "weather guys" are too much. Sheer, lofts, currents..... my god, just give me a list of what I should have and when I should get it.

No really, I love the weather talk. Some of you are pretty excitable about weather though, I find it all very fascinating.

It really would be helpful if some of you who have experienced a "CAT 4 with a rapid intensification trend and an overall improving convective pattern" (how am I doing with the lingo?) what were some of the dire necessities you had, or better, wished you had.

I know the water, batteries, lights, beer, perishables (not necessarily in that order) - the general stuff. But what are some other specifics?

I picked a bad month to move a 4-iron away from the Caribbean Sea. I have the 'before' pictures ready.

 

[Dolores1]

The good thing of the Internet is one gets to know days in advance if one's city is on the route. Note that a hurricane that hits Samana may not be felt in Santo Domingo. In 1998 when Georges hit the southeast coast, Puerto Plata trees didn't lose a leaf!

What we all did learn in Georges (1998) and David (1979) is that hurricanes can change track, so that is why they should be monitored closely. So far it looks like those living on the south will not be affected, even if it comes our way.

Note that Dominicans take hurricanes seriously, so it is always best to monitor them in advance, so if it looks like the country may be affected, you can avoid the crowds in your visit to the supermarket to stock up on potable water, and other needs. Just keep in tune with dr1 and we will help you along. In the meantime, see http://dr1.com/living/worst/1.shtml

Having weathered David in a house right on the sea, and Georges in a 6th floor very well ventilated apartment, I can't help feeling a fascination for these marvels of nature.

 

[Chris]

You'll need to stock up on sufficient toilet paper. 'Cause, you'll 'sheeeet' yourself.

 

[XanaduRanch]

If I were living on the shore, I'd be at least as concerned about the storm surge as I would be the wind. If the storm does follow a westward track, the waves experienced from Fabian will look pretty small in comparison.

That's the truth and a half. But for us at least no a problem as we're probably 300' up in the foothills. I can see the beaches, but don't have to worry about storm surge. The winds though with this wood roof I am becoming increasing concerned about.

Cleef, no not excitable. I do like storms. I am from Iowa where we dealt with tornadoes all the time. Worked as a broadcast meteorologist for 30 years, still do. Among my degrees is one in atmospheric physics. I am not worried about my life or safety, or that of the tourists. We'll all be fine I think, but if this thing doesn't turn there's going to be a few folks with some stories to tell their grandkids! I am concerned about my property, the animals here at Xanadu. Keeping electricity going, not losing my satellite systems, etc. At least I have seven days to plan, and hopefully the extra work will have all been for nothing.

Edited to add:
And here she is - http://140.90.6.254/iwin/images/HUIR.JPG

 

[Ken]

I picked a bad month to move a 4-iron away from the Caribbean Sea. I have the 'before' pictures ready.

If you are on the south side of the island, Cleef, it is likely you won't get anything from the storm, except possibly some rain and clouds

 

[KenoshaChris]

I called my Isabel this afternoon and told her to get to the supermercado and ferreteria tomorrow before there's a run on things if indeed this thing is going to hit. If it doesn't hit, we'll ultimately use everything she's going to buy anyway. The items that you suggested Cleef were essentially what I told her to buy. Great minds do think alike. Just don't use that 4 iron as a lightening rod zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz poof!! You're vaporized.