A survival of David (and his sidekick Federico) and Georges checking in.
Cleef, you have nothing to worry about. Unless you have a tin roof.
Cleef, you have nothing to worry about. Unless you have a tin roof.
- Thread starter Dolores1
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Hurricane Isabel
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Phewww!!
Nope, just the walls are tin, I scored some palms for the roof. :cross-eye
I'm with Dolores, I'm fascinated by these storms (as long as they don't strike in the midst of tea and bisquits :squareeye ).
I was on Cape Cod in Massachusetts for Hurricane Bob and that was a thrilling event. I saw things that I never would have believed if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes.
Nope, just the walls are tin, I scored some palms for the roof. :cross-eye
I'm with Dolores, I'm fascinated by these storms (as long as they don't strike in the midst of tea and bisquits :squareeye ).
I was on Cape Cod in Massachusetts for Hurricane Bob and that was a thrilling event. I saw things that I never would have believed if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes.
Isabel
Well...I'm anxiously watching this one!
Dolores, during Georges, Puerta Plata didn't have any wind? WOW! I was in La Romana where I live, directly on the ocean, 650' of ocean front property and we were slammed! UGH! :~( I'll be really happy IF we don't have any probems here in Romana .. but at this juncture, I highly doubt it and see it heading right this way for the Island.
I'm watching this one...closely too.
PS Can someone tell me how to insert smileys? Thanks
Well...I'm anxiously watching this one!
Dolores, during Georges, Puerta Plata didn't have any wind? WOW! I was in La Romana where I live, directly on the ocean, 650' of ocean front property and we were slammed! UGH! :~( I'll be really happy IF we don't have any probems here in Romana .. but at this juncture, I highly doubt it and see it heading right this way for the Island.
I'm watching this one...closely too.
PS Can someone tell me how to insert smileys? Thanks
Re: Isabel
As you reply to a post LynnCox directly to the left of where you type is a box labeled 'Smilies'. Just click on one! To put a smiley in the header of your post, there are fourteen choices located above labeled "Message Icon".
Tom (aka XR)
P.S.
You shouldn't have any problem with this one on the south coast barring any last minute itinerary changes by Isabel.
That depends. Where exactly, and into whom, would you like to insert them. If you don't have a favorite subject there's a few posters who've recently arrived for which I wouldn't mind watching you, ah, 'insert' a few ... LOL.LynnCox said:
As you reply to a post LynnCox directly to the left of where you type is a box labeled 'Smilies'. Just click on one! To put a smiley in the header of your post, there are fourteen choices located above labeled "Message Icon".
Tom (aka XR)
P.S.
You shouldn't have any problem with this one on the south coast barring any last minute itinerary changes by Isabel.
Any hurricane would be bad of course, but on the nort coast, remember that the "weak side" is what would most likely hit. That is because the hurricane would likely be moving due west, and the strongest winds would be on the north (right) side.
For example, if the max sustained winds are 125 mph and the forward motion is 14 mph (as in the recent update), the sustained winds on the north coast should be "only" 97 mph (max sustained winds minus 2 times forward motion), a lot less severe than it could be.
It would probably not even be that bad, because the hurricane would have already weakened considerably from brushing Puerto Rico.
Despite the confident track projections, it looks to me that it could still track into the Caribbean. If so, it could also turn nortward and hit the DR head on like David did.
For example, if the max sustained winds are 125 mph and the forward motion is 14 mph (as in the recent update), the sustained winds on the north coast should be "only" 97 mph (max sustained winds minus 2 times forward motion), a lot less severe than it could be.
It would probably not even be that bad, because the hurricane would have already weakened considerably from brushing Puerto Rico.
Despite the confident track projections, it looks to me that it could still track into the Caribbean. If so, it could also turn nortward and hit the DR head on like David did.
Andy, generally true, but the coastline here is not east-west. It's northwest-southeast. And the information I am looking at in the raw guidance, not yet reflected in the discussions is a westward track to north of PR, and then a west-southwest or southwest track to the DR coast. I have my doubts yet, but that being the case, the forward motion is directly perpendicular to the coast line which is one reason I am concerned. As to 'significantly' weakening over PR, well, not likely. Some yes, but a CAT4 at 150mph has lots of room to lose a little steam and still be extremely strong. However I am becoming pessimistic and that is my best hope, that it will lose a bit in brushing the islands.
This is an interesting thread and, given the unusual projections, there has been reason for it---even though as of 5pm today it was still about 1600 miles east of the Dominican Republic.
However, the danger, as the thread develops, is that we will talk ourselves into believing there is no option but the worst case scenario.
During the years that I have been watching hurricanes in the Caribbean, I have seen them do some very surprising things. To mention just a few, I've seen them die, then regenerate a few days later; go back and forth for several days along the south coast of Puerto Rico; bounce off the southwest corner of Puerto Rico and head up the Mona Passage, despite the fact that all the projections were to hit the south coast of the DR.
Although it is true the the forecasters seem to be more accurate than in the past, there is still plenty of time to hope that Isabel, who is, after all, a female, will be another of the long list of hurricanes that surprised the experts.
However, the danger, as the thread develops, is that we will talk ourselves into believing there is no option but the worst case scenario.
During the years that I have been watching hurricanes in the Caribbean, I have seen them do some very surprising things. To mention just a few, I've seen them die, then regenerate a few days later; go back and forth for several days along the south coast of Puerto Rico; bounce off the southwest corner of Puerto Rico and head up the Mona Passage, despite the fact that all the projections were to hit the south coast of the DR.
Although it is true the the forecasters seem to be more accurate than in the past, there is still plenty of time to hope that Isabel, who is, after all, a female, will be another of the long list of hurricanes that surprised the experts.
While I would have wanted Fabian thread to die
And keep the information on Isabel on its own thread, there is no doubt that this is very solid stuff. However, it seems to me that IF the lady does take a turn South - Southwest it might be the South shore that gets hit. That is just my guess, since I am not a broadcast meteorologist (SP??) and know zilch about atmospheric physics.
Gonna be an interesting 6 days... Great picture by the way!! Beautiful eye...
HB
And keep the information on Isabel on its own thread, there is no doubt that this is very solid stuff. However, it seems to me that IF the lady does take a turn South - Southwest it might be the South shore that gets hit. That is just my guess, since I am not a broadcast meteorologist (SP??) and know zilch about atmospheric physics.
Gonna be an interesting 6 days... Great picture by the way!! Beautiful eye...
HB
Sosua...
I have a question for those of you who have been here for a while. I just moved to Sosua from Milwaukee, WI. Weather there was 3 feet of snow.
I haven't been able to find any resources as to the height above sea level for Sosua. I live in Condos Dominicano on the second floor...and look up at my nice wooden roof with the clay tiles over it wondering if I shouldn't pack up and head south for a couple of days.
So, any experienced residents in Sosua have any insight?
Thanks....
Corey
I have a question for those of you who have been here for a while. I just moved to Sosua from Milwaukee, WI. Weather there was 3 feet of snow.
I haven't been able to find any resources as to the height above sea level for Sosua. I live in Condos Dominicano on the second floor...and look up at my nice wooden roof with the clay tiles over it wondering if I shouldn't pack up and head south for a couple of days.
So, any experienced residents in Sosua have any insight?
Thanks....
Corey
Xanadu,
I think that 150 mph winds in that area is way too pessimistic. That would likely make it the strongest, by far, ever in that area.
I think the southerly route is actually much scarier. Hurricanes tend to strengthen in the Carribean - still more if they make it into the Gulf, although the latter scenario would threaten some other place.
I think that 150 mph winds in that area is way too pessimistic. That would likely make it the strongest, by far, ever in that area.
I think the southerly route is actually much scarier. Hurricanes tend to strengthen in the Carribean - still more if they make it into the Gulf, although the latter scenario would threaten some other place.
Andy, yes that's correct. The 150 mph figure is the official strength forecast from the computer models. That would be maximum, along the eyewall. Figuring the current track I would expect 75-125 mph here 3 miles inland if nothing changes.
This is one of the reasons that I say the forecast track is at the moment one that you couldn't diagram to be much worse for us. Being not to far offshore the SST's will be in the 28C-30C range, not much different than being in the Caribbean on the other side of the island. It's a narrow corridor, but it's following it like a magnet.
Tom (aka XR)
This is one of the reasons that I say the forecast track is at the moment one that you couldn't diagram to be much worse for us. Being not to far offshore the SST's will be in the 28C-30C range, not much different than being in the Caribbean on the other side of the island. It's a narrow corridor, but it's following it like a magnet.
Tom (aka XR)
Re: Sosua...
P.S.
leaving to go 'south' won't help until you know that south is not where the hurricane will be when you want to leave. Wait a few days and see what's up. Unlike Wisconsin tornadoes, hurricanes give you plenty of time to get out of the way if that's what you wish.
I am pretty sure that if this stays on the current track no one in Sosua would have any insight as very few hurricanes ever come close to here. Sosua has to be about 20-25 above MSL. So unless you're at the beach I wouldn't worry about a storm surge even in the worst case scenario, and we aren't anywhere near there yet. Just preparing. Don't panic. If a direct hit were to happen and the odds are still low on that I might be a little nervous about the wood roof (as I am here) because it's not attached to the concrete as it would be required to be in Florida, no hurricane clips. So, in that case I'd just find a nice bar, or friends place, away from the beach, with a nice solid concrete roof and a cooler full of Presidentes and, as a friend's daughter wrote me earlier tonight get, and I quote, "smartly sozzled"!cmilliman said:
P.S.
leaving to go 'south' won't help until you know that south is not where the hurricane will be when you want to leave. Wait a few days and see what's up. Unlike Wisconsin tornadoes, hurricanes give you plenty of time to get out of the way if that's what you wish.
Georges
Dolores and Robert will remember for sure, but I believe Georges changed it's mind only hours before making land.
The North was under a serious threat and only hours later it changed to the South and was historic. The North just watched the highlights on TV.
Point being, Mother Nature - being a lady herself - will do as she wishes and we'll just have to endure.
One thing is for sure, it's like an oven on this pile of coral lately (somebody in my Tshirt stinks!!).
Tom, is there any relation to how hot it is lately and the energy being created by - or being draw to - these storms?
Dolores and Robert will remember for sure, but I believe Georges changed it's mind only hours before making land.
The North was under a serious threat and only hours later it changed to the South and was historic. The North just watched the highlights on TV.
Point being, Mother Nature - being a lady herself - will do as she wishes and we'll just have to endure.
One thing is for sure, it's like an oven on this pile of coral lately (somebody in my Tshirt stinks!!).
Tom, is there any relation to how hot it is lately and the energy being created by - or being draw to - these storms?
Maybe Some Good News.
OK, time for bed. But here's the latest and the reasoning behind it. The NOAA forecasters have bent the track a bit to the north. Maybe 21-21.5N at the time it's passing the DR. Not a great distance yet but better, for sure.
Now, before you all breathe a sigh of relief and go back to your Presidentes, I need to say that the forecaster is taking a couple of gambles here and going out on a limb as the computer models are diverging. Two of the models are taking an even more aggresive bend to the southwest for the storm which is really bad news for us. An mid-to-upper low pressure area developing NE of the hurricane is responsible. If the storm is affected by the low as these two predict, the hurricane will head direct at the DR coast from the ENE. The strange thing here is that the other models also have changed the track to the left, or southwest somewhat even though they do not expect the hurricane to interact much with the low.
So, even though all the models turn the track even further southwest the forecast has ignored these and posted the official track further right, or north.
Who's correct? Only time will tell! But at least now a bit of controversy! Stay tuned ... and good night all!
Tom (aka XR)
OK, time for bed. But here's the latest and the reasoning behind it. The NOAA forecasters have bent the track a bit to the north. Maybe 21-21.5N at the time it's passing the DR. Not a great distance yet but better, for sure.
Now, before you all breathe a sigh of relief and go back to your Presidentes, I need to say that the forecaster is taking a couple of gambles here and going out on a limb as the computer models are diverging. Two of the models are taking an even more aggresive bend to the southwest for the storm which is really bad news for us. An mid-to-upper low pressure area developing NE of the hurricane is responsible. If the storm is affected by the low as these two predict, the hurricane will head direct at the DR coast from the ENE. The strange thing here is that the other models also have changed the track to the left, or southwest somewhat even though they do not expect the hurricane to interact much with the low.
So, even though all the models turn the track even further southwest the forecast has ignored these and posted the official track further right, or north.
Who's correct? Only time will tell! But at least now a bit of controversy! Stay tuned ... and good night all!
Tom (aka XR)
Re: Georges
I remember very well! It did happen that way. I was in SD, living through it. In fact, I have great videotape footage of things flying by the front porch of my house. [shudder, shudder]
glad I'm not there -- I don't need those flashbacks... I sincerely hope this one does not hit the DR, as I would not wish it on anyone. But if it does, you'll see the real measure of this government. With Georges, the Leonel government screwed up some of the preparation, but they were amazingly quick at cleaning & fixing things afterward, minimizing looting and keeping the lid on abusive pricing of necessities. I somehow doubt Hipo & Co. will do as well, but who knows, they may surprise us. [pause] Nah! :devious:
Regards,
Keith
Cliff,Cleef said:
I remember very well! It did happen that way. I was in SD, living through it. In fact, I have great videotape footage of things flying by the front porch of my house. [shudder, shudder]
glad I'm not there -- I don't need those flashbacks... I sincerely hope this one does not hit the DR, as I would not wish it on anyone. But if it does, you'll see the real measure of this government. With Georges, the Leonel government screwed up some of the preparation, but they were amazingly quick at cleaning & fixing things afterward, minimizing looting and keeping the lid on abusive pricing of necessities. I somehow doubt Hipo & Co. will do as well, but who knows, they may surprise us. [pause] Nah! :devious:Regards,
Keith
I was just reading Cleefs link and I have a strange question. First, does a hurricane always swirl-turn in the same dirrection? and if so below the equator does it turn in the opposite dirrrection?
Also some fo you know where I live. If there is a direct hit or even a close hit here would the water come up as far as my apartment? I live 1 street behind Montecrios near the Malecon.
Also some fo you know where I live. If there is a direct hit or even a close hit here would the water come up as far as my apartment? I live 1 street behind Montecrios near the Malecon.
Yes Jan, they swirl clockwise in the Southern hemisphere and turn around and swirl counterclockwise in the Northern hemisphere.
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