SD Metro - Now we know where the money is coming from!

Don Juan

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Dec 5, 2003
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A needed thing.

Rick Snyder said:
Nal's I wish you to note what I am about to say for reference 15 years down the road.

"When and if the metro ever gets finished and that includes the first line and if there are more then all the lines combined in Santo Domingo will never see more then a 3.7% ridership by Dominicans and Haitians combined on a daily basis. That number will drop to 1.1% if the price to ride the Metro is above 30pesos".

And you can take that to the bank.

Many of you don't seem to realize that this metro, as idiotic and unwise a project as it may appear to be to some of you, It is still a great part of the INFRASTRUCTURE NECESSARY for a large city to help cope with its transportation needs. It is the next logical step in furthering progress.

Who can deny that the proper national infrastructure does NOT result in prosperity???
Who's to say that great seaports, highways, bridges, and so on, does NOT create wealth???
Who's to say that when this, apparently quixotic project is finished, it won't create numerous jobs in ways we do not yet foresee?

When more people have jobs, more people will well afford the fare. This metro may never pay for itself, but it sure will be a cool tool to need and have.

A few of you complain (justifiably so), about costs, thieves, and money misspent. But, Mr. Snyder. This is a done deal. it will get build, it will bring about progress, and even Haitians will be able to afford it.
Mark my words.
 

Rick Snyder

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Nov 19, 2003
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Don Juan,

I know what you're saying and I do honestly hope for the sake of Dominicans that this comes to pass. The only problem with the whole idea of this project is that we are not talking about the US, PR, Venezuela, Tokyo or any of those other countries but rather the DR. You know, the country that can't grasp the importance of preventive maintenance, can't keep more then 25 of their 46 electricity power plants running, can't seem to complete the majority of their construction projects and when they do the project deteriorates in a matter of a short time, must repave their roads every 2 years due to shoddy work on the initial building of those roads.

As to the money spent and monies that will be spent just take a look at the thread in the debates forum entitled "Corruption is it stealing?" to get an honest idea of the mind set of the Dominican.

Rick
 

NALs

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Jan 20, 2003
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Hipocrito Mejia said:
Again, for anyone who doesn't seem to get it; the questions are:

How much money will the government spend to build the metro? (hint, hint: nobody knows!)

How can anyone realistically expect it to stay up and runnning, when it depends on electricity? I don't care that they're building a power generating plant specifically for it, because we all know how efficient this country has been at producing and delivering electricity. The results are there and nobody can dispute them!

When does the government anticipate to stop dumping funds into this money pit? (hint, hint: it would never happen) There are subway systems with millions of daily riders, who pay a substantially higher fee than what would be charged in DR, in countries with cheaper energy rates and way less corruption (we know for a fact that whoever runs this thing will be stealing left and right), and they still need government subsidies.
Response to the Dark Red:

How much money will the entire project cost has not been revealed yet. However, we can speculate based on the information we already got.

Key information of the Metro:

Line 1 will be 10 kilometers long
15 3-car trains operating at 3 minutes interval at peak hours.
Full trip will take 13 minutes

Cost of first line: US$326.69 million---- per kilometer it costs US$32.669 million.

There are no details of how long will lines 2 and 3 will be, but for the sake of discussion let's assume its twice as long, both of them.

The cost will be US$653.38 million per line 2 and 3 or US$1.6 billion total.

In terms of crossing the city, under the assumption here, it would take around 26 minutes to cross the city from east to west and 13 minutes from north to south. Try beating that on a guagua, concho, or private car!

Keep in mind these assumptions are based to give an idea, not concrete until the actual kilometers of lines 2 and 3 are revealed once they are ready to construct them, which should be as soon as line 1 is completed.

Regarding what's on Dark Orange:

How often does AILA gets a power outage? Or POP?

Regarding what's on Blue:

In the short run, the bulk of the money used for this project at once will take place during its construction phase. Once the system is up and running, the costs of maintanence will certainly be less than the cost of building. Maintaining a metro the size of the one being planned for Santo Domingo will certainly NOT cost US$1.6 billion per year!

-NALs
 
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NALs

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Rick Snyder said:
Don Juan,

I know what you're saying and I do honestly hope for the sake of Dominicans that this comes to pass. The only problem with the whole idea of this project is that we are not talking about the US, PR, Venezuela, Tokyo or any of those other countries but rather the DR. You know, the country that can't grasp the importance of preventive maintenance, can't keep more then 25 of their 46 electricity power plants running, can't seem to complete the majority of their construction projects and when they do the project deteriorates in a matter of a short time, must repave their roads every 2 years due to shoddy work on the initial building of those roads.

As to the money spent and monies that will be spent just take a look at the thread in the debates forum entitled "Corruption is it stealing?" to get an honest idea of the mind set of the Dominican.

Rick
Did the Duarte bridge collapsed?

Has any of the tunnels that has been built in the DR collapsed?

Not one!

However, take a look at this in the US of A:
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/US/07/11/bigdigdeath.ap/index.html

I mention this because as you say, we are not talking about the US or PR or Venezuela, those countries know better than the DR. Way better!:paranoid:

It's funny how some things happens in places where they are "not" suppose to happen and yet they don't happen where they are "suppose" to happen!!

-NALs
 
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Rick Snyder

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Nal's I know that the truth hurts you so your expected attack has no bearing on me. Concerning the link that you supplied I will only say that because of what happened some heads will roll and the family will be compensated VERY, VERY well for their tragic loss.

More truth for you, if that same thing happened here would heads roll? Would the family be compensated for their loss? Not lately because this is the DR.

Speaking about costs you must also think about cost overruns. The site here has a nice report on cost overruns. Page 2 of 32, number 2.1 states, “For rail, average cost overrun is 44.7 percent measured in constant prices”. On page 3 we have this little gem, “Table 2 shows the inaccuracy of traffic forecasts for rail and road projects.3 For rail, actual passenger traffic is 51.4 percent lower than estimated traffic on average. This is equivalent to an average overestimate in rail passenger forecasts of no less than 105.6 percent. The result is large benefit shortfalls for rail”. The construction of the famous Sydney Opera House involved a cost overrun of 1,400%, while the Channel Tunnel's cost overrun was 80%.

Interesting triva;

The Paris metro was inaugurated in 1900 with 11 kilometres and 18 stations in 20 months. The construction workers had no plant and machinery but they built it, no problem. The Empire State building was built in 14 months, from foundations to the opening day.

Rick
 
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I've been thinking about this metro after reading this thread and it reminded me of the short subway system that was built in Los Angeles a few years ago. Would that be a fair comparison?? How many people use it daily? Does it make money? What kind of impact did it have a on traffic? I'd say apparently none from the daily traffice reports there.
 
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NALs, I'll agree to your assumptions used to give an idea, but not anything else.

Based on cost over runs for projects in DR and elsewhere, your $1.6B will easily turn into $2.5B. An amount that would do wonders in areas that are of much higher priority.

You can not compare AILA or POP to an entire metro system which includes powering trains, terminal buildings, tunnels and signals. The airports can run on generators if needed, and you couldn't run the metro with the power needed to run both airports combined.

On the issue of government expenditure on this project, my point is that the government will never stop dumping money into it and any intelligent person knows it. The point is that it's not how much, but that it will never end. Or are we supposed to believe the fairy tale concocted by Diandino and crew, that not only will it operate without government subsidies, but that it will eventually generate profits to pay back the original expense?
 

NALs

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Hipocrito Mejia said:
NALs, I'll agree to your assumptions used to give an idea, but not anything else.

Based on cost over runs for projects in DR and elsewhere, your $1.6B will easily turn into $2.5B. An amount that would do wonders in areas that are of much higher priority.


You can not compare AILA or POP to an entire metro system which includes powering trains, terminal buildings, tunnels and signals. The airports can run on generators if needed, and you couldn't run the metro with the power needed to run both airports combined.

On the issue of government expenditure on this project, my point is that the government will never stop dumping money into it and any intelligent person knows it. The point is that it's not how much, but that it will never end. Or are we supposed to believe the fairy tale concocted by Diandino and crew, that not only will it operate without government subsidies, but that it will eventually generate profits to pay back the original expense?
Response to "Dark Red":
Yes it could easily double, but we don't know the actual figures yet because in order for this to be done we need to know the length of the two additional lines, the number of stations the lines will have, etc.

That is info that not even the metro contenders at the palacio nacional know about, yet.

Let's wait and see as this project continue to go along.

Considering what is of higher priority... well that is subject to personal opinions. The truth is that the DR has many things covering everything from infrastructure to health care which have a high priority.

The problem is that there is not enough money to fix everything at once, but a society can't function if travelling becomes a living hell, especially at the economic and political center of the entire nation.

Like I said in previous response on this thread, let's be thankful that this is not a monument or something of the sort. This at least has the potential to actually help people and not just the pocket books of some people.

Regarding what's on Green:

Actually I can. The reason lines in the following reasoning:

The airports such as AILA and POP are government owned. Right now they have been basically leased by Aerodom, which is being operated by Grupo Abrisa, owned by the Hazoury family. However, being that those facilities are government owned, the Dominican government has managed to keep the lightbulbs on!

This is considering that the airports are connected to the national electric grid, which is in a horrible state. The reasons for such horrible electric service boils down to two main reasons out of many small ones:

1. Lack of payment from many delinquent customers

2. Faulty wiring, much of it being tampered by everyday people who tag their illegal lines to the grid and suck paid electricity out of the grid to power their electrified shacks without having to pay a dime for the service.

Having those things in mind, the airports still manage to have electricity 24/7.

Now, let's take a look at the metro project. This system will be have it's own electrical output. The system is mostly underground, which means that the wiring will also be done underground in the tunnels, making it harder if not impossible for everyday people to simply tap into this enclosed electric grid.

Given that the system will be separate from the national grid and the enclosed electric grid for the metro will not be easy for everyday people to tag their illegal lines and steal electricity, whatever electricity produced within that enclosed grid will remain in the grid itself!

Now, let's take other aspect of the electricity problem into account. The reason why the main grids in the country experience outages is NOT due to a lack of petroleum or a DEFICIT in producing megawatts. In fact, the DR has the capacity to produce more megawatts than it actually consumes and extremely few times has the system experienced outages due to scarcity in petroleum or coal or natural gas.

This means that the enclosed electric grid of the metro will not only receive the petroleum or coal or natural gas (whatever the power plants for the system will use) but it will have a constant flow of electricity due to a lack of theft from the general population. This will be a self contained electric grid, not too different from what the airports of the countries are experiencing.

The biggest difference is that the airports function on the national grid and when that fails the generators take over. The metro will function on a grid all of its own, which if electricity theft from that separate grid does not occurs, would be fluent 24/7.

Regarding what's on Purple:

The only metro system in the world that produces a profit is the metro of Hong Kong. The sole reason is because of the high usage of the metro by the inhabitants of that city.

Now, we all know that some of things politicians say is on the mark and other things is nothing more than mere politics.

However, we have to keep in mind Leonel's desire for the country and the capital city in particular. If anything, the metro could be an indirect message to the population of what's to come to Santo Domingo in terms of urban development.

In order for the metro to become profitable, it needs a constant large flow of people to use the system. Only by increasing the density level of the city will such increase occur. Increases in density levels can be created by encouraging and promoting high density real estate projects (ie. apartment towers, office towers, etc). The way development is occuring in Santo Domingo, particularly what has happened to Naco and Piantini, it could very well be that the government has a plan to turn Santo Domingo into a premier urban economic center that spans influence beyond the national territory.

If you notice the types of projects being endorsed by Leonel, regardless if the projects are public ventures or private, they all point towards high density development.

From the Sans Souci projects (it's mostly apartment towers), to the increasing density of central areas of the city such as Naco/Piantini, neighborhoods that were solid single family upper middle class homes and today houses are a rarity among the forest of apartment/office towers.

The metro could very well be a small part of a grand masterplan to turn Santo Domingo into something it has never been before.

Afterall, remember the famous quote Leonel once made "I want to turn Santo Domingo into a mini-New York". For better or worse.

-NALs
 

Don Juan

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Dec 5, 2003
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Yes, I know.

Rick Snyder said:
Don Juan,

I know what you're saying and I do honestly hope for the sake of Dominicans that this comes to pass. The only problem with the whole idea of this project is that we are not talking about the US, PR, Venezuela, Tokyo or any of those other countries but rather the DR. You know, the country that can't grasp the importance of preventive maintenance, can't keep more then 25 of their 46 electricity power plants running, can't seem to complete the majority of their construction projects and when they do the project deteriorates in a matter of a short time, must repave their roads every 2 years due to shoddy work on the initial building of those roads.

As to the money spent and monies that will be spent just take a look at the thread in the debates forum entitled "Corruption is it stealing?" to get an honest idea of the mind set of the Dominican.

Rick


Yes, you're right about the "shoddy work" part, and that's what got me worried. We Dominicans can't seem to want to grasp the concept of "build it right the first time". My understanding is that there were no environmental impact studies nor a geologic survey before the darn thing was even begun.

This was an ad hoc project from the beginning with the usual DR mentality of: "we'll cross that bridge when we come to it". Or "we'll fix it as we go along".
Because of this, they'll be rebuilding it time and again 'till who knows when with costs overruns that is hard for some of us to fathom.

But....even though it goes against my better sense, I'm still in favor of it.
Some of us proponents can think of many reasons why this can work to promote greatly the city and maybe even the entire country. (industry, tourism, investments, vertical growth, etc.). Personally, I'm fascinated by the prospect of the potentially beneficial impact this will bring about once the entire system is built.

And, yes Mr. Snyder, I'm apprehensive about this whole foolishness. Can only hope and pray that it lives up to its potential, if for only half the time.:paranoid:
 

Conchman

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Hillbilly said:
According to Saturday's Diario Libre A.M. editorial, there seems to be a major preocupation that a lot of the financing will come from all those billions in the National Pension Plan AFP. That should scare the bejesus out of any person contributing to the plan....
Oh well, I'm too old to worry about that.!

HB :(:(


I don't think anybody really expects the AFP funds to exist when they need them. Only a fool would count on that.

(Whether its the Metro, another government project, or corrupt politicians that are culprits)
 
Jan 5, 2006
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I guess that a lot of us will just have to agree that we disagree on a lot of issues regarding the metro, otherwise, we'll be debating the same points forever.

Personally, and for the sake of my country, which I love so dearly, I hope that I'm wrong in my asserions and that this project will really be the success that many others think it will be.
 

mondongo

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Jan 1, 2002
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Conchman said:
I don't think anybody really expects the AFP funds to exist when they need them. Only a fool would count on that.

You can take that to the bank, put it in a safe deposit box and throw away the key. Just remember, if you live in the USA, the money you contribute to Social Security gets spent immediately by both the Democrats and the Republicans.

You're better off investing your money in the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny.