The Venezuelan Lesson

[ltsnyder]

If you don't know about land reform, but know so much else . . .

shouldn't you be asking why?

1) Did Chaves seize the oil companies before or after they were used as strike tools?

2) What is your prediction of the future of Venezuela if Chaves remains in power?

3) Your understanding is that 75% of the Venezuela population want him out? I guess this is a change since the first coup attempt?

Why is it so important to you whether Chavez' inept and self-destructive policies occurred before or after the strike? The result is the same.

Your own article contradicts you, (here it is in cliff note form):

BY ANY standard, it is a staggering figure: Venezuela's economy contracted by 29% in the first quarter, compared with the same period last year. That spells hardship for millions of Venezuelans.
Much of the GDP shrinkage is the result of a two-month general strike, a failed bid by the opposition to oust President Hugo Ch?vez. This shut down the vital oil industry in December and January, just when prices were high. Oil output is now almost back to normal.

What gets to me is that you keep on pointing to the current situation and say "See what Chaves did!", but he did not do this, this is a conflict and the strikes did much of the damage, it the economy contracted 29% in the 1Q of this year (which is the majority of the economic damage the country has suffered), and the economist says this was due to damage done to the economy due to the strike, then why do you proceed in placing all the blame on Chaves? Can we stop this chicken and egg argument and try to focus on what happened at or before April 2002 (at the time of the coup attempt).

Since neither of us know about what land reform laws he has passed, let's try to look it up. I have recently found newspapers in english about Venezuela, but that still makes it hard to find the historical perspective.

I really , really want to hear what Ken has to say about this, as he understands it. I'd like other perspecties on this.

-Lee

 

[Porfio_Rubirosa]

Here's what we know:

Chavez is President.

The Venezuelan economy has collapsed as a result of divisive actions that identifiably occurred under his watch.

He has failed to unite the various sectors of society or settle the disharmony.

As President, he is responsible for the outcome of his policies and for social harmony. He is, therefore, a failed politician. All else is fingerpointing.

By the way, that 3/4 of Venezuelans want him out is not my "feeling", but was cited by The Economist as the result of polls.

Your point is that the business sector attacked first, right (oh, I'm sorry, I forgot, you don't have a point, you're just seeking knowledge), and therefore Chavez is not to blame. Might you also suggest that Chavez had good intentions to empower the underclass and redistribute land and wealth? Well, it doesn't matter. The road to hell is paved with good intentions (just ask Cubans). His failure to resolve the attack by the business sector (if they did in fact attack first) and the tragic outcome confirms that he is a failed politician.

This thread is supposed to delve into the question of whether Venezuela is a lesson for the DR, and not into your finger pointing in support of Chavez.

 

[ltsnyder]

How can we compare if we don't know what the leason is?

This thread is supposed to delve into the question of whether Venezuela is a lesson for the DR, and not into your finger pointing in support of Chavez.

Every time I examine your post you have brazen assumptions and what would seem to be half truths, and ignorance on other points. I'm tired of pointing out your argument flaws, you go find them. Sad part is, that I correct you from the sources you post as evidence, now that is sad. In fact let's stop debating this, I just want to hear from others about what they know about the situation, not from you or me. For someone with no horse in the race, you sure do get angry when your corrected.

-Lee

 

[Porfio_Rubirosa]

...you have brazen assumptions and what would seem to be half truths, and ignorance on other points. -Lee

Nauseating debate rhetoric. Even a communist should be able to do better.

Sad part is, that I correct you from the sources you post as evidence, now that is sad. -Lee

Sad part is, that is redundant.

Ironically, I would say that you had some good points were it not for the fact that you deny having tried to make a point. Your debate style makes your true intentions appear clandestine, which is a trademark of radical leftists. Fact is, I disliked your sniping approach much more than I care about Venezuela.

 

[Pib]

To learn more about the Venezuela crisis:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/country_profiles/1229348.stm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/cgi-bin/search...ezuela&scope=all&tab=news&recipe=all&x=7&y=14

Now, we are not here to discuss Chavez' mistakes - that are many - but to discuss IF the Dominican business class is acting they way they are because of what has happened in Venezuela. I believe they are. I believe that locking horns with His Baldness will bring the same results it brought to the Venezuelan businessmen.

 

[Hillbilly]

Please remember, this is a Dominican Republic soite

Let's get it back to the DR.

The problem is not Chavez, it seems to be the inablility of the current administration of the Dominican governmnet to do anything right. Isn't that the point?

HB

 

[Porfio_Rubirosa]

... IF the Dominican business class is acting they way they are because of what has happened in Venezuela. I believe they are. I believe that locking horns with His Baldness will bring the same results it brought to the Venezuelan businessmen.

Pib,

This is an excellent question and one that, I admit, I failed to read originally. Put another way, is the Dominican business sector restraining itself as a matter of strategy - to avoid a Venezuela redux - or are they just "wimping out" based on the known dangers involved in going up against a standing Dominican President?

It also begs the question as to whether the business sector views Hippo to be a threat of the same magnitude as Chavez was viewed by the Venezuelan business sector. Hippo has not, nor could he, do something as globally drastic as changing the board of a national oil company with billions and billions in revenues.

To me, the answer to your question may be revealed when we see how well-funded is Leonel's campaign. Will the business class talk nice to Hippo while throwing their money secretly behind Leonel?

 

[XanaduRanch]

I don't see why the business sector here would look at His Baldness the same way the business sector in Venezuela did with "Fidel Junior" Chavez. The big difference is that Hippo needs these guys a lot more than Chavez did. Chavez had oil and the oil industry at hand to nationalize for money. What does Hippo have? Tourists? Bananas and sugar? He needs them a lot more or the money evaporates completely. Chavez can always sell oil to keep things from grinding to a complete halt and that's not an option for His Hipponess.

 

[ltsnyder]

I must be missing something here . . . .

Presidente Hippo is not similar to Chaves in any form, no one would claim Hippo is a "Little Fidel", there is not a chance in the world he would nationalize anything (correct me if I'm wrong) even if he could (he has no desire to nationalize anything, and has shown no intrest in any such action, he is a true capitalist at heart). Presidente Hippo is all business, and solidly lined up with the US. Now there might be alot of corruption in the government and a lot of money going around to greass a lot of palms (this does not seem to be Chave's style). I mean remember the DR central bank pumped money into Baniter before the true scale of the fiasco became known, if a person reigning over actions like that can be considered bad for business, it's only because he is much too good to some business crooks, and by all the protest running around about the power outages, he must be disliked by the poor. The problem as I see it, is that the economy is dependent on the Tourist industry, but you can't attract the tourist when your economy is going down, and taxes on industry will only stagnate the economy. I see no easy solution for this problem, and I don't know if just stealing what is left, might be the attitude of any new govenment. If anything, these events create fertile ground for a "Chaves" to take root. Beyond all these issues, what in the world could the business class do? WHat is Hippo doing that the business class could correct? You can't protest corruption by shutting down all hotels in the DR, or stopping taxis service, and even assuming something crazy like a coup, you still have the debit and evey one needing a payment to get things done.

-Lee

 

[XanaduRanch]

Monkey Business That Is!

Presidente Hippo is not similar to Chaves in any form ... I mean remember the DR central bank pumped money into Baniter before the true scale of the fiasco became known, if a person reigning over actions like that can be considered bad for business, it's only because he is much too good to some business crooks

And who were the benficiaries of this magnificence, Lee? Do you know? Anyone who knows anybody here knew that BanInter was being used as the personal little piggy bank of El Hippos top brass. From the Military to Politicos to his own Secretaries and Advisors they were all getting loans and credit cards that they could never pay off. Millions and millions of pesos. With that in mind, now what does that look like? Theft? Yep. They use BanInter to basically to launder theiving money from the public trough. Get loans, credit cards, etc. Buy your Jeepetas and houses. Then when the bills come due, float a little money from the country to 'help out' that poor bank and when it all goes south blame the economy going sour on those horrible folks at BanInter.

What a scam! And if it pulls the wool over your eyes, is it any wonder the average Dominican doesn't get it?

 

[Pib]

Re: I must be missing something here . . . .

Presidente Hippo is not similar to Chaves in any form, no one would claim Hippo is a "Little Fidel", there is not a chance in the world he would nationalize anything (correct me if I'm wrong) even if he could (he has no desire to nationalize anything, and has shown no intrest in any such action, he is a true capitalist at heart).

There are some thins I disagree with you.

First that Chavez' regime is not corrupt. You gotta be kidding. But I won't dwell on this because we already said that we are not here to talk about that.

What happened in Venezuela, and concern us now, is that Chavez weakened the justice system, making of it an arm of the executive... the business class was not left any way out but to revolt. I disagree with some of their methods, and disagreed with the way the Venezuelan media took sides AGAINST Chavez and made the businessmen's claim sound all the more suspicious.

In a country like ours, what chance do businessmen have of getting a judge to overturn the new 5% "temporary contribution", a clearly inconstitutional tax? What can they do? Go home and pray for a miracle? Take it to the courts and risk further horn-locking with His Cluelessness? Or take it to the streets? The last sounds unlikely.

Pls. correct me if my assessment sounds wrong.

 

[ltsnyder]

Re: Re: I must be missing something here . . . .

In a country like ours, what chance do businessmen have of getting a judge to overturn the new 5% "temporary contribution", a clearly inconstitutional tax? What can they do? Go home and pray for a miracle? Take it to the courts and risk further horn-locking with His Cluelessness? Or take it to the streets? The last sounds unlikely.

Pls. correct me if my assessment sounds wrong.

I'd imagine there is no better time to groom your own candidate that is freindly to business. I still don't see any Hippo action in consolidating power. I see supression of protest, but that is another thing. There is only so much any one can do to effect change before an election. people keep on indicating (on DR1) that Hippo is still popular, I can't beleive this is true (or is it?).

-Lee

 

[Porfio_Rubirosa]

I take back any nasty thing that I said about Hugo Chavez because of today's story in the diario Hoy that says:

"The Venezuelan president, Hugo Ch?vez, s indicated yesterday that his country may retire from the International Monetary Fund (the IMF) if the multilateral organization 'does not change' and continues to insist on the promotion of neoliberal economic policies." (My translation.)

I hate the IMF more than anything.

 

[ltsnyder]

Welcome comrade to the revolutionary party, do you want to join my sleeper cell too?

I knew Porfio_Rubirosa would eventually see the light, now finally I can reveal my true self and put on my Che T-shirt.

But seriously, the DR has a debit that it can't handle, you can't squeeze money out of a bario, I see no easy solution to the direct problems of the DR. I think making sure Hippo does not win the next election is the first step.

Chaves also mentioned increasing oil exports to un-named carribean islands while bypassing the IMF. He also expoused some typical psydo communist drivil about how the IMF impoverishes rather than helps third world countries, imagine that! The nerve of him!


Quotes from the capitalist manefesto -

When the last communist is hung, it will be with a rope made in Red China or maybe Haiti or DR depending on which labor rate is the lowest level of destitute poverty.

-Lee

 

[Chris]

Re: Re: Re: I must be missing something here . . . .

....I still don't see any Hippo action in consolidating power....]

If you don't see this, then you don't see anything - This is not a 'fan the flames' comment, I really have no other words at the moment. Hippo is consolidating power every minute of every day.

.... I see supression of protest, but that is another thing. There is only so much any one can do to effect change before an election. people keep on indicating (on DR1) that Hippo is still popular, I can't believe this is true (or is it?).

Suppression of protest has been mild so far. Is Hippo still popular? Hell yes, he is still popular. Come drive me with one day when I have to do business in government offices - every one of them has a number of banners - 4 more years! one more time! and if you ask them if this is really what they want, you bet this is what they want. This is where their paycheck comes from, so, yes, this is what they want. Remember, your political party affiliation here is like the baseball team you support.

The next few months will be telling. We still have a few political milestones for the Hippo Party, even though they are internally quite divided.

 

[ltsnyder]

I know this is a Chaves focus, but I saw similarities to the DR here that can't be

ignored.


From a publication that is a self avoved lefty, no copyright on the article.

Bold is my comments

If in the seventies, rocketing oil prices had given the country the highest per capita income in the continent, funding a huge apparatus of state patronage and middle-class consumption, little productive domestic industry was created and the fate of the poor was consistently neglected. By the time petroleum revenues started to fall, astronomic levels of waste and corruption had become routine to a political establishment composed of two alternating parties?Acci?n Democr?tica, nominally Social-Democratic, and copei, nominally Christian-Democratic?who shared the spoils of clientelistic power. Between 1978 and 1985, gdp fell continuously while capital fled the country and foreign debt exploded. Two successive attempts to impose neoliberal shock therapies (read IMF meddling) failed?the first in 1989, detonating nationwide riots and heavy loss of life, the second in 1996, setting the stage for Ch?vez?s rise to power. [3] By the mid-nineties, gdp per capita had dropped back to the level of the sixties, and real industrial (and minimum) wages had collapsed to a mere 40 per cent of their value in the eighties.

This implosion of the economy not only brought disaster to the great majority of Venezuelans, it also brutally exacerbated already very high levels of inequality. As wages plummeted and social spending was cut by an increasingly desperate state, the proportion of the population living below the poverty line soared from 36 per cent in 1984 to 66 per cent in 1995 (loss of the middle class, sound familiar?)

As for what Chris said, can you elaborate on how he is consolidating power? This should not be stated with out clarification.

-Lee

 

[Chris]

Do the research!

IChaves also mentioned increasing oil exports to un-named carribean islands while bypassing the IMF. He also expoused some typical psydo communist drivil about how the IMF impoverishes rather than helps third world countries, imagine that! The nerve of him!

I do not know if this is a serious comment. If it is, you do the research and tell me which country is now on a good and solid economic footing as a direct result of IMF loans, or world bank intervention. I believe most of these countries have either been forgiven their debts for a large portion of whatever the country is wealthy in, or are being sqeezed in an ever tightening loan shark cycle. However, if I misunderstood your comment and it was made in jest or tongue in cheek or cynical, then we understand one another.

Regarding the Hippo consolidating his base, I'm stating this without clarification. There are many many threads on this board explaining this blow by blow. Do the research and ask the questions if you have a deeper than just a passing interest and require this information. When you have some insight or experience to offer here, I'll be happy to talk again. Note that I am not saying the Hippo is successful in his efforts, we don't know this yet, just that he is doing all he can to consolidate his base and that he is not by any means in a losing position as things stand today.

 

[gallorojo]

Chavez is too soft on the exploitive parasites.....Fidel did a better job at cleaning his country up.... The left is growing throughout Latin America, intellectuals are mostly leftist, and normal people are getting into it too. Look at the growth of the left in Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Argentina, Nicaragua...etc. The only anti-Chavez camp is again the Yank stooges and economic refugees in the US who have dreams of going back and exploiting their people...... Well, news flash! Wonderful capitalism is the very reason why those economic refugees had to leave in the first place!

 

[XanaduRanch]

You're funny, Red. Not real bright, but funny.

 

[Pib]

gallorojo

This is a forum about the Dominican Republic. There was a question about the Dominican Republic. You find a connection between your argument and the Dominican Republic or I will have to delete any further posts.