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Tropical Storm Ivan
Track as of 5pm. Already indication that the projected landfall will be further west than was projected at 11. Don't be surprised if it makes its landfall on Cuba, or someplace west of the DR.
No guarantees, of course. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/042108W5.gif
No guarantees, of course. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/042108W5.gif
Cat 3 hurricane definition taken from NOAA website
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.
Category Three Hurricane:tired_boy said:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.
Hurricane Ivan
Winds now 85 mph. Track as of 11 am http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/051453W5.gif
Winds now 85 mph. Track as of 11 am http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/051453W5.gif
ivan / thursday
http://www.w3.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/projectedpath_large.html
as of today, sunday 5th, looks like we're going to get ivan the terrible.
http://www.w3.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/projectedpath_large.html
as of today, sunday 5th, looks like we're going to get ivan the terrible.
All roads lead to the south of the DR!
If I lived along the South Coast, I would do some shopping tomorrow.
Every model I could find shows the Terrible on his way here--and then, of course, to Florida or close enough to mess it up again..
And I am not sure how much aid we would get at this time when Florida will be sucking coffers dry.
Please take care all you Southcoasters!!
HB, with a worried look...:worried:
Look here: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html
If I lived along the South Coast, I would do some shopping tomorrow.
Every model I could find shows the Terrible on his way here--and then, of course, to Florida or close enough to mess it up again..
And I am not sure how much aid we would get at this time when Florida will be sucking coffers dry.
Please take care all you Southcoasters!!
HB, with a worried look...:worried:
Look here: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html
I know we are only looking at 5 day forecasts here but (thinking about the north of the island) how does the terrain of the DR affect the storms/hurricanes hitting the south?
The last 3 track updates from the national hurricane centre have shown a slight movement to the West. If that trend continues then that could be good news for Hispaniola. But.........we are only looking at 5 day forecasts so its a 'wait and see' thing, but i would be making preparations.........again!
The last 3 track updates from the national hurricane centre have shown a slight movement to the West. If that trend continues then that could be good news for Hispaniola. But.........we are only looking at 5 day forecasts so its a 'wait and see' thing, but i would be making preparations.........again!
Distance calculations
PJT did some quick computations on his abacus and having arrived with the following results, only to be taken as ballpark figures as a relative distance to the passing hurricane center from Punta Cana as projected by NHC 11:00 am this Sunday.
Base location: Punta Cana 018-34 N latitude 068-22 W longitude
Center location 3 days out: 15.0N 65.5W = 311 miles
Center location 4 days out: 17.5N 71.0W = 188 miles
Center location 5 days out: 20.5N 75.0W = 452 miles
Thursday 4 days out will be the day to monitor for the island's eastern locations. Hopefully Mrs. PJT's aguacates will stay on the tree or we will be making a lot of guacamole.
Regards,
PJT
PJT did some quick computations on his abacus and having arrived with the following results, only to be taken as ballpark figures as a relative distance to the passing hurricane center from Punta Cana as projected by NHC 11:00 am this Sunday.
Base location: Punta Cana 018-34 N latitude 068-22 W longitude
Center location 3 days out: 15.0N 65.5W = 311 miles
Center location 4 days out: 17.5N 71.0W = 188 miles
Center location 5 days out: 20.5N 75.0W = 452 miles
Thursday 4 days out will be the day to monitor for the island's eastern locations. Hopefully Mrs. PJT's aguacates will stay on the tree or we will be making a lot of guacamole.
Regards,
PJT
too soon to tell...
...but too late to do anything.
I'm flying out from California on Monday evening, arriving late Tuesday to SDQ. Meant to spend a few days around Sto. Dgo. looking for property, then the next week in La Romana. My trip is nothing in the scheme of things, and I hope the DR escapes the hurricane season intact. However, the predicted tracks for Ivan look threatening...
...but too late to do anything.
I'm flying out from California on Monday evening, arriving late Tuesday to SDQ. Meant to spend a few days around Sto. Dgo. looking for property, then the next week in La Romana. My trip is nothing in the scheme of things, and I hope the DR escapes the hurricane season intact. However, the predicted tracks for Ivan look threatening...
At this distance accuracy is iffy, but
Now it looks like T-B's right about going a bit to the west. NOw Haiti is in the sights.
PJT's avocados should be safe if they are east of Santo Domingo.
To answer a query by tired-boy: The terrain of the DR has a major effect on hurricanes and weakens them, if they cross over. David did that is '79, I think it was. The Central Mountain Range goes up to 10,000 feet so it acts like a wind break, and save our tails. Biggest problem was the humongeous amount of water that fell and forced dams to be let open. Valdesia has yet to recover from that.
The only crops that really suffer are bananas and plaintains, and if there is flooding then the yuca and batata crops may well be damaged.
HB
Now it looks like T-B's right about going a bit to the west. NOw Haiti is in the sights.
PJT's avocados should be safe if they are east of Santo Domingo.
To answer a query by tired-boy: The terrain of the DR has a major effect on hurricanes and weakens them, if they cross over. David did that is '79, I think it was. The Central Mountain Range goes up to 10,000 feet so it acts like a wind break, and save our tails. Biggest problem was the humongeous amount of water that fell and forced dams to be let open. Valdesia has yet to recover from that.
The only crops that really suffer are bananas and plaintains, and if there is flooding then the yuca and batata crops may well be damaged.
HB
Hit Puerto Rico?
From what source are you getting that information? So far the projection is to pass PR with enough distance so that it would be on the fringe. Not what I would call a "hit". Here is the 1 pm projection http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/051453W5.gif
MaryS said:
From what source are you getting that information? So far the projection is to pass PR with enough distance so that it would be on the fringe. Not what I would call a "hit". Here is the 1 pm projection http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/051453W5.gif
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MaryS said:
You may not agree, but I have found that the TV weathermen frequently make a potential storm sound more threatening than there is evidence to support what they say. More listeners if they are a bit frightened. That certainly is true of the CNN weathermen.
I made a mistake in my last post and said 11. Actually it is the forcast track as of 1 pm today. Winds reported as 115 mph.
No question Ivan is a storm to be wary of, but too soon for talk of hits (unless you are a tv weatherman, that is). The NHC weathermen aren't. In fact, they always stress that their projections 3 or more days out may be wrong by hundreds of miles.