2015 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

ex-danny arrived on PR soil this morning.
nothing of significance in case of water, most part of PR is dry so far.

Tropical Storm Erika did not climb northwards much the last hours, but moves forward on good 20mphr,
it is def on a straight westward course so far, NOT on the tracking shown on the forecasts.
of course it can change at any moment, as usual,
but since last night it still is below 15"N and it already passed the 50th"W, that is a straight westward course with a extremely light motion towards the north.
keepin that tracking would not bring it anywhere north of the Islands.
max powers on 40knots only show that it is not on any fast development,
the fast forward movement is one of the varius development slowing factors,
this should not become a hurricane the next 48hrs.
circulation is not welll defined and the nortehrn sectors look weak, which most likely is struggles due the higher windshear north of the Storm. as the dryer air is located W and NW of it, chances are good that the slow developing Storm gets bothered by that windshear injecting dry air to a non present/not developing Core.
that tracking looks weird,
the modesl show it from the beginning on that far northern route,
but since thelast check in the evening it did clearly wander straight westwards,
moved as northwards drifting only from 14.4-14.8"N,
while it already passed the 50th"W and managed 190-195nmiles of a westward move the last 10 hours,
that averages a 21.5mphr westward speed.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Not totally yet.
PR radar shows some good reflectivity over the neighbour island. If those clouds are not milked off completely there is a chance we might get some showers in Saman? this afternoon. :bunny:

Even the ONAMET mentirologists forecast some rain...
http://www.onamet.gov.do/

donP

see the smallest, almost not visible dots on the left of the radar's coverage area?
it is clouds, and they hang over me right now.
not some dark storm clouds or such,
but chances are good to get a sprinkling a bit later on.
but just chances.
maybe it rains for the neigbour in Bavaro and we stay dry here.
for PR it looks good to get in some parts needed water without any flooding amounts coming down.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

darn,
clouds moved on and sun is back out

Mike

 

[windeguy]

Danny is no more, has ceased to exist, has met an un-timely demise:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203240.shtml?5-daynl

 

[MikeFisher]

Danny is no more, has ceased to exist, has met an un-timely demise:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203240.shtml?5-daynl

it stopped to be seen as a storm or threat,
but of course those systems do not really disappear.
they keep moving and raining and blowing around their Breeze.
heer in Cabeza de Toro(Eastern Tip of the Isle) we have today til now the most time a sunny morning.
every once in a while some clouds move thru.
more clouds are seen in the not so far distance.
some shower activity later today can be expected.
it is right now completely calm, but it would be no surprise if wind kicks up some strong gusts for a short time once in a while as the day moves on.
nothing bad,
it is a perfect beachday weather day so far.
what hit PR soil rained down there with nothing left to move further,
what is in the northern wing of the moving area, can bring clouds and some gusts form the E towards the beaches,
parts of the souther areas of it miss PR completely and bring clouds/maybe rain and gusts) form the ESE towards the beaches of the area.
nothing a biggie, most of the former waterloads of the system are gone, they rained down elesewhere.
later on i would expect such conditions/clouds/maybe rain and some gusts) also to eb seen around the SE of the Isle,
moving along/over Bayahibe/La Romana area.
no biggy to await,
nothing that would fill some dry ponds.

Mike

 

[reilleyp]

darn,
clouds moved on and sun is back out

Mike

The storm was calm but strong enough to blow Puerto Rico onto the opposite side of the DR. Tell the locals they need to go west from now on if they want US citizenship.

 

[Marilyn]

The storm was calm but strong enough to blow Puerto Rico onto the opposite side of the DR. Tell the locals they need to go west from now on if they want US citizenship.

shame on them LOL

 

[Eugeniefs]

All I can say is that here in PC, it has been hot and humid, two little showers in the morning and nothing more than clouds and humidity for the afternoon. What a total let down. Have 25 apartments, did a lock down on them all, to no avail. However, seeing as Erika may give us a little bit of excitement, have decided to keep the lock down in its current position, for that 'just in case' scenario.

Love the rain, good for the plants, soil and water table, just not too much all at once, pretty please

 

[MikeFisher]

hahaha
and such highly educated northerners, so well fine tuned in geography, wanna tell us they know what a storm will do in a week or so.
well,
we will just skip to listen to anything coming form north of PoP, lol.

my daughter told me it was for a few minutes raining once at her school in Veron this morning,
we did not get a single drop all day long in cabeza de toro around 8 miles away from that school on the beach.
in other words, Danny did not affect anything more than any average august day without any storm remaints could affect the area.

as for Tropical Erika,
nothing changed since the early morning.
it is a struggling storm loosing the battle against windshear on it's north, hence all of the anyways limited TS activity happens on the south of center quadrants.
it is not a well defined storm, and does not look like it could become one the next couple days.
hence it still is wandering far more Westward than North.
the basic rule on actual steering Currents:
** the weaker it runs, the more west it moves
** the stronger it gets, specially if it would become a high scale TS or hurricane, the more northwards it will Track.
no signs that it could reach much powers any soon, so it will be a WWNW'ern tracking for the next 24hrs at least.
maybe the tracking model runs tonight give an better idea,
as for now the tracking models do not return any reliable forcast, they can't handle the weak storm in case of steering currents influences on it.
the same mess we had with Danny.
may late night they get something together, but i doubt.
i guess Erika will stay weak and barely develop, tho it will keep moving WWNW towards the Islands as a very breezy wide waterload.
in ca eof windpowers it does not look any dangerous at all for the Islands, but gathering some more rainloads could make it a flooding threat for vulnerable areas on its path.
there will not be any Hurricane named Erika in the Atlantic Basin til at least friday as the minimum, maybe well more.
by then it would be over the Bahamas and could become a hurricane threat for northern soils, but such depends on WHERE it walks along here.
the actual weak storm formation Erika, hittimg the Island Belt, would go down steeply, leaving heavy and maybe dangerous rainfalls, yes, but go down on powers steeply, it would very likely not rcover after such hit to become then a hurricane.
it's only chance to become a well defined Hurricane, is to miss the Islands to the North and wander the very warm waters along our northshores to the Bahamas, that would give it a chnace to become big and powerful, but by then it would be out of danger vicinity for our own Island.

Mike

 

[reilleyp]

The storm was calm but strong enough to blow Puerto Rico onto the opposite side of the DR. Tell the locals they need to go west from now on if they want US citizenship.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...905660802386.191024.1323998797&type=3&theater

Sorry to hear about Europe and the Atlantic Ocean. Not sure what happened to them but apparently both are gone and have been replaced by the Pacific Ocean.

I guess journalists and meteorologists no longer take geography classes.

 

[reilleyp]

Correction to my last post in which there is a bad link:

Sorry to hear about Europe and the Atlantic Ocean. Not sure what happened to them but apparently both are gone and have been replaced by the Pacific Ocean.

I guess journalists and meteorologists no longer take geography classes.

 

[reilleyp]

Image will not upload properly. I will try again later.

 

[MikeFisher]

Tropical Storm Erika is more than just struggling.
no changes on it's circulation, yet,
but it is a storm on decline.
estiamte max sustained windforces of just 35knots are barely supporting to keep the status as a Tropical Storm.
steaming wwnw on quick 20+mphr, doesn't look like it could gain any powers, the opposite, i see it going further downhill.
the encounter of Land over the northern Island Belt will knock it away.
IF something of Erika survives the hit, then no more tha a cloudforce wnadering along our northshores towards the bahamas, but at this moemnt i doubt the system will survive long enough to reach that far.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

right now we have an other nice sized tropical wave leaving the west african coast, hitting tropical atlantic waters.
it will be on it's waterrun positioned around 12"N, a good starting point to kick off spin right from the start.
those stormy systems need to start early now, to use all the time of their walk over the highway to gain forces, lol.

Mike

 

[caribmike]

Hmm. If that were the remnants of Danny passing through here in Santo Domingo / Miramar an hour or so ago then I don't know...

What a loser! 12 drops of rain on my window and some wind what managed to make it inside the living room before we could close the balcony door and broke a lamp by blowing it off from the table.

Wifey was on an errant and passing 27 de Febrero. She said it was raining there... Mmmh... Well... that ain't rain. No water for the south I am afraid...

 

[Celt202]

There's more rain on the way.

Santo Domingo time is UTC-4. 20:15 in Greenwich is 16:15 here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-animated.gif

 

[caribmike]

There's more rain on the way.

Yep. Seen that meanwhile. Thought it can't be that that was all we get...

 

[Celt202]

We'll have to go all the way through the alphabet to get to Hurricane Caitlyn. :laugh:

 

[MikeFisher]

There's more rain on the way.

Santo Domingo time is UTC-4. 20:15 in Greenwich is 16:15 here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-animated.gif

nope.
not really, at least not for much terrain.
the little bit what is still left of Danny, wanders actually south of the Mona Channel Westwards.
here i will get zero drops of that portion, most likely nobody on DR Land will get any of it.
maybe it moves close enough to shore more West, once it reaches the Lattitudes of the Capital, but til now it barely reached the lattitudes of PC/far south of PC it will pass.
in cabeza de toro we did not get a single drop of rain today.
it went cloudy for a short while a few times, but did not rain a bit, sun back out quickly.
i heard there was some short rain in Bavaro, have not been there myself today.
daughter told me about 1 short shower up in Veron while she was in school.
dry roads around the Marina/Cap Cana.
no breeze other than what is normal.
for my surroundings Danny and it's remaints been a 100% No-Show.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Celt,
on that kind of Loop
you can take the blue color as for nothing,
the yellow color as partially cloudy, some sprinkling or very short shower possible but unlikely
the Orange color is rain, but not of the torrential kinda hard rain.
if you get hit by a Red colored area, that would promise a good hard rainfall down on ya.
you see the remaining clouds/partially water better on this one

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Mike