2015 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

invest 98L seem to have more powers than it looks like on the shots.
it is very widespread and TS activity is not concentrated around a center,
but NOAA expect's it to get storm status(number or name) by mid week.
so we could have the next one before Danny pased the Isle or it's surroundings.
the pavement looks good til after the half way point of the highway.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

down early to 35knots
forward speed 16mphr
Danny will not even hit the first islands as a tropical storm.
it will be a strong Tropical Depression only and go again downhill then.
and it looks less and less likely that it will touch any DR soil anywhere at all,
just some clouds moving over the caribbean sea E-W.
if he passes close enough to PR on their southshores, the touch with their terrain will erase it's mentioning from the Map.

Mike

 

[Contango]

down early to 35knots
forward speed 16mphr
Danny will not even hit the first islands as a tropical storm.
it will be a strong Tropical Depression only and go again downhill then.
and it looks less and less likely that it will touch any DR soil anywhere at all,
just some clouds moving over the caribbean sea E-W.
if he passes close enough to PR on their southshores, the touch with their terrain will erase it's mentioning from the Map.

Mike

That's good news! My apartment is on the 3rd floor and I always leave my windows open ( with screens) to keep the air flow going when I am not going to be back for months... Thought I was going to have to get someone to close them..

 

[MikeFisher]

on the visible loop Danny looks almost running "dry" around it's center area.
only on the northeastern quadrant 2 small thunderstorm areas are to be spotted.
nothing new on it's route.

98L does not contaim heavy thunderstorm areas, but is a constantly building up wide disturbance on the edge to be named a Tropical Depression.
it is just 4mphr windspeed short of the TD margin.
conditions look not against some development for the beginning of the week, so we should get the next number soon.
as for the East of our own Isle,
today was one of the calmest (wind and ocean) sundays so far, flat calm and perfectly sunny.
no news/changes of significance awaited for tonight.

Mike

 

[jstarebel]

down early to 35knots
forward speed 16mphr
Danny will not even hit the first islands as a tropical storm.
it will be a strong Tropical Depression only and go again downhill then.
and it looks less and less likely that it will touch any DR soil anywhere at all,
just some clouds moving over the caribbean sea E-W.
if he passes close enough to PR on their southshores, the touch with their terrain will erase it's mentioning from the Map.

Mike

I was pleased when I saw that Danny's telemetry had changed to a straight westerly track as I sit in the lagoon in St. Martin (French).. Happy it's going to be a dry run so to speak. Wish you all were going to get some rain but it doesn't look like it. We're not either.

 

[ju10prd]

on the visible loop Danny looks almost running "dry" around it's center area.
only on the northeastern quadrant 2 small thunderstorm areas are to be spotted.
nothing new on it's route.

98L does not contaim heavy thunderstorm areas, but is a constantly building up wide disturbance on the edge to be named a Tropical Depression.
it is just 4mphr windspeed short of the TD margin.
conditions look not against some development for the beginning of the week, so we should get the next number soon.
as for the East of our own Isle,
today was one of the calmest (wind and ocean) sundays so far, flat calm and perfectly sunny.
no news/changes of significance awaited for tonight.

Mike

Early models showing 98L heading same sort of track as Danny or ex Danny.........what are your thoughts on this one?

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/invest-98L?map=model

 

[MikeFisher]

don't know, it's too early.
it did not even form into a well defined storm with a steady movement, yet.
it runs very quick tho, could arrive just 2-3 days after Danny's rests.

Mike

 

[Natu]

hmmm, that one looks menacing.. It looks like its coming towards the DR area and its moving pretty quick also.

 

[MikeFisher]

former hurricane Danny is over the Islands as a Tropical Depression.
expected tracking would bring it as a simple rainy area with 25-30knots of windspeeds WWNW thru the eastern and central caribbean sea, passing south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
so far no danger awaited from the system, it should provide portions of the Islands north of it's path provide with some needed rainfalls.

Mike

 

[windeguy]

Probably no to little rain on the north coast because of the projected path today:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203240.shtml?5-daynl

 

[william webster]

so, does the white on that graphic indicate the span of the rain or can rainfall reach past that white part ??

 

[MikeFisher]

Invest 98L
the big system to keep a very close eye on.

while it has amounts of dry air and the SAL Layer on it's westerly Path and on it's NW,
it is a very large system which moistens it's environment well.

it still runs on a high forward speed of around 20mphr westward,
and already shows a well organization despite the high speed.
this should be the next Tropical Depression during Today.
it gathers slowly more and more TS activity together near the center of it's circulation,
and it still has plenty of time to develop in a well defined storm before entering the more Storm hostile area closer to the Islands.
if it slows down the forward speed by a good 5mphr, that large system should be able to become a strong Storm, able to shut off the dry air from it's center for a while, while approaching the vicinity of the Islands very soon.
it is forming well below the 15thN,
steering patterns are the same as we experienced with hurricane Danny.
the power/size reaching up into the atmosphere, once a storm is up and running, is the decider for the exact Heading.
despite of development, it is the size of system which does not bring drought relief, but flooding conditions.
by wednesday morning we should see very well IF/What is running and to Where.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

so, does the white on that graphic indicate the span of the rain or can rainfall reach past that white part ??

the white cone on windeyguy's link, has nothing to do with rain.
it is the probability Cone.
that means the forecasters expect the Center of the Depression to move/head within that Cone.
Rain is in case of Danny located on the northern side off the center,
if it reachse over the whole Island up to your PoP area, simply depends if the center finally moves in the middle of the Cone, or near the southern(farest) border or near the northern corner of the cone(that would bring some water for you northerners, too).
don't be concerned about that TD, it will not rain down dangerous waterloads nowhere on our soil.
some Islands may get well more than they prayed for, by what ever will come out of Invest 98L,
and that could be as close as just 2 days behind ex-Danny.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

so, does the white on that graphic indicate the span of the rain or can rainfall reach past that white part ??

this is the TD Danny right now(usually shows around 45 minutes delayed to real time, so it's almost Live).
the green colour is the heaviest water density, the strongest rain areas.
white indicates also a good chance of showers, but well less intense than the powerful green ones.
blue may send some clouds and sporadic light rainfall, it often stays dry tho, with just moisture in the air but not coming down on ya.
yellow means the mid atmosphere is bone dry in such area.
you already see PR on the Map, so you can compare the reach northwards of that rain to your Lattitude of your location.
from there on take in consideration when ever the system moves more N or S-wards.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

on the 9AM run for windspeeds estimated per Sat shots,
Invest 98L already is estimated to contain max sustained winds of 40mphr, which would be Tropical Storm Force.
as soon as it is seen as to have a clear circulation, a requirements to be seen as a Storm(numbered as a TD at least),
i would guess the NHC will declare this system right away a Tropical Storm during the next few hours, without numbering it a TD first.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

as you can see on the auto-updating loop in post #219,
TD Danny get's heaviliest troubled due the slightes first touch with land,
it was since a while a instable vulnerable system on decline.

Mike

 

[AlterEgo]

as you can see on the auto-updating loop in post #219,
TD Danny get's heaviliest troubled due the slightes first touch with land,
it was since a while a instable vulnerable system on decline.

Mike

But it still looks like the south coast will get a lot of rain from Danny, right?

We need it too

 

[caribmike]

But it still looks like the south coast will get a lot of rain from Danny, right?

We need it too

To me it appears that the whole waterload comes to us to Santo Domingo and beyond rather than to the North Coast...

 

[bigbird]

Just a shout out to Mike, you called it several days ago. I was thinking maybe you would be wrong............ hmmmmm

So now Danny is dead as you predicted what are your thoughts on Santo Domingo and the rest of the country just getting some much needed rain?

Thanks again for you input..........

 

[Natu]

Is it me or is it approaching a moisturized mass of air?? How are the conditions around the DR?? We wouldn't want another Tormenta Noel catching us by surprise when it formed just off our coasts.