but only if you have the exact correct starting point from which you start measuring/drawing lines into a certain direction etc.
Mike
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but only if you have the exact correct starting point from which you start measuring/drawing lines into a certain direction etc.
Mike
and anyways, not worth to draw lines too far ahead of time.
for more tha the next 24hrs the uncertainties of a storms track are too high to tell a Tracking Line,
hence the NHC uses a Cone instead of a line.
Mike
" i start typing without any typo errors"
That explains the "35th" and means you still sober
****, you got me.
i am usually, as right now, typing comfy in my seat on a old beloved wirelss keybord on my belly, while watching a movie with the computer screen on my rigt side to watch and type what ever is on.
typing in that comfy position without erors on a keybord with several Keys that sometimes get stuck or dont respond, is impossible, at least ipossible sober, hahaha.
but my B-Day numbers are the correct ones.
my B-D now contains a 3 and a 5, no keyboard trouble on that one.
Mike
11PM Update.
Heading on WNW 300 Degrees again.
I don't know if it's my eyes only and i should look the other way for a couple hours,
but i see the tracking further way from my Bike's Parking position,
wandering towards the SE'ern Tip of Puerto Rico now.
is it just Me?
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017
...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM NW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES
Mike
Heading on WNW 300 Degrees again.
I don't know if it's my eyes only and i should look the other way for a couple hours,
but i see the tracking further way from my Bike's Parking position,
wandering towards the SE'ern Tip of Puerto Rico now.
is it just Me?
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017
...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM NW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES
Mike
the first image is the tracking line on the Heading shown on the 9:35PM update with the positioning by the hunters and Martinique Radar by the same time.
the 2nd one is from the Heading and Hunter Positioning of the 11PM update.
keep in mind that the exact heading is always drifting up and down a bit, as such storm does never walk a straight line.
but my important point to do is not the different line, it is the huge difference of the starting positions within just 85 minutes, both fixed by the Hunters.
to me it looks like they fixed the eye onto a different section of the overall "Center/middle" of the Storm,
it simply jumped northwards from where it formerly was in te storm, a eye jumper.
thats a several miles distance, te staring point for image 2 is well NW of the Island of Dominica, where it just had been right over the middle of the Island.
that moves the whole Tracking northwards, so it is not my eyes tricking me to see it further away from my home porch.
lets see what positioning for the eye will be provided for the next several updates, if it stays there and wanders from there, taht would be great, also for Puerto Rico, as it would actually point the center to the SE Tip of PR instead of S-Central.
it would bring it actually closer to the Capital San Juan on the E-Central of the northshores,
but it could be the needed trend to finally let it miss PR further East.
Mike
the 2nd one is from the Heading and Hunter Positioning of the 11PM update.
keep in mind that the exact heading is always drifting up and down a bit, as such storm does never walk a straight line.
but my important point to do is not the different line, it is the huge difference of the starting positions within just 85 minutes, both fixed by the Hunters.
to me it looks like they fixed the eye onto a different section of the overall "Center/middle" of the Storm,
it simply jumped northwards from where it formerly was in te storm, a eye jumper.
thats a several miles distance, te staring point for image 2 is well NW of the Island of Dominica, where it just had been right over the middle of the Island.
that moves the whole Tracking northwards, so it is not my eyes tricking me to see it further away from my home porch.
lets see what positioning for the eye will be provided for the next several updates, if it stays there and wanders from there, taht would be great, also for Puerto Rico, as it would actually point the center to the SE Tip of PR instead of S-Central.
it would bring it actually closer to the Capital San Juan on the E-Central of the northshores,
but it could be the needed trend to finally let it miss PR further East.
Mike
of course do not take my drawn lines as a Tracking for the next 5 days out or such.
it is about the change of positioning of the Center, a eye jumper,
which brings the Storm on a completely different approaching line towards PR than prior shown.
so there will be completely different bouncing effects when touching PR,
hopefully misisng PR.(yes, that would be bad for the Virgins right East of there).
Mike
it is about the change of positioning of the Center, a eye jumper,
which brings the Storm on a completely different approaching line towards PR than prior shown.
so there will be completely different bouncing effects when touching PR,
hopefully misisng PR.(yes, that would be bad for the Virgins right East of there).
Mike
you have to watch it now, as this loop auto updates itself an ddeletes the former images.
you can see the jump of the eye to the NW.
right at the moment it was over the middle of Dominica it hopps NW/Left-Top to the NW tip of the Island.
that's where the adjustment of the Tracking line in the full update at 11PM comes from.
it happens on teh images between 10:30 and 11:00PM
Mike
you can see the jump of the eye to the NW.
right at the moment it was over the middle of Dominica it hopps NW/Left-Top to the NW tip of the Island.
that's where the adjustment of the Tracking line in the full update at 11PM comes from.
it happens on teh images between 10:30 and 11:00PM
Mike
you have to watch it now, as this loop auto updates itself an ddeletes the former images.
you can see the jump of the eye to the NW.
right at the moment it was over the middle of Dominica it hopps NW/Left-Top to the NW tip of the Island.
that's where the adjustment of the Tracking line in the full update at 11PM comes from.
it happens on teh images between 10:30 and 11:00PM
Mike
Does the shift redirect or is it a small bump and it goes back to it's original path?
2AM Update Sept 19th.
since 11PM it stays on Track, over all a 300 Degrees WNW Heading towards SE Puerto Rico.
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017
...MARIA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AFTER MOVING OVER
DOMINICA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 61.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
the central pressure rised a lot, from formerly 925mb to now 942mb, steep 17mb difference,
but the estimated windpowers lost only 5mphr and run 155mphr on a 9mphr forward speed.
Mike
since 11PM it stays on Track, over all a 300 Degrees WNW Heading towards SE Puerto Rico.
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017
...MARIA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AFTER MOVING OVER
DOMINICA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 61.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
the central pressure rised a lot, from formerly 925mb to now 942mb, steep 17mb difference,
but the estimated windpowers lost only 5mphr and run 155mphr on a 9mphr forward speed.
Mike
I am fairly sure you are ..from all the various maps that are now on the internet,it looks as if the eye will miss to the north of DR but the width of Maria is being portrayed as much wider than Irma and so maybe Higuey will still cop much rain and wind
Based on your experience ,how accurate is windy.com ?
Their web-site is really easy to use to check projected path ,wind ,rain that Maria may bring.
See below for Cabarete for example.
https://www.windy.com/19.763/-70.421?2017-09-22-03,18.443,-69.593,7,m:ed5aedM
Their web-site is really easy to use to check projected path ,wind ,rain that Maria may bring.
See below for Cabarete for example.
https://www.windy.com/19.763/-70.421?2017-09-22-03,18.443,-69.593,7,m:ed5aedM
Am I seeing less strength on the SW side of this storm ?
Or just wishful thinking?
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles
Or just wishful thinking?
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles
good morning all.
Maria is this morning back on it' full powers 160mph winds, prssure a few mb higher than yeasterday when it run those winds.
Tracking looks the same on first look.
darn tired, went to bed 3:30AM, got up at 6AM to get the Prib¿ncess ready for school, went to bed again but focking telephone woke me up right away.
what i see is that the windfield is wider, on the weaker side, Maria sends the stuff more to all sides.
the SW is still weaker, but the S looks like TS Force extends out there long range on the South.
but tat changes anyways when touching PR.
tonight it will approach SE-Puerto Rico with the Virgin Islands right aside.
we will see how that changes Tracking and spreading out powers.
time for much mor coffee now and my House Dragon is just back from her morning Beachwalk with her friend, so i can kick them into the kitchen right away to get me some breakfast, lol.
Mike
Maria is this morning back on it' full powers 160mph winds, prssure a few mb higher than yeasterday when it run those winds.
Tracking looks the same on first look.
darn tired, went to bed 3:30AM, got up at 6AM to get the Prib¿ncess ready for school, went to bed again but focking telephone woke me up right away.
what i see is that the windfield is wider, on the weaker side, Maria sends the stuff more to all sides.
the SW is still weaker, but the S looks like TS Force extends out there long range on the South.
but tat changes anyways when touching PR.
tonight it will approach SE-Puerto Rico with the Virgin Islands right aside.
we will see how that changes Tracking and spreading out powers.
time for much mor coffee now and my House Dragon is just back from her morning Beachwalk with her friend, so i can kick them into the kitchen right away to get me some breakfast, lol.
Mike
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