Coronavirus - In the DR

[austriaco]

Compared it with Austria which has the same Population size. (Belgium is larger)

Number of tests 26 times more and still 3 times more hidden cases then reported (as found out in a large random sample of the population)

Real number RD likely 77000 cases.

Yes the number of tests is a big influence.

Other influence: Why does Belgium have 10 times more death than Austria: later lockdown and less strict. -> same story DR: this toca de queda only parttime will kill a lot of people


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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Just found on CNN page one about influence on speed and strictness


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[windeguy]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Just found on CNN page one about influence on speed and strictness


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From that CNN article:

And a study based on China's outbreak, published in medical journal The Lancet, has suggested that coronavirus lockdowns across the globe should not be completely lifted until a vaccine for the disease is found.

In other words, if no vaccine is found, the lockdowns have to continue forever is that recommendation. That is because the lockdowns are preventing the development of herd immunity. Whenever the lockdowns are lifted without an effective vaccine, there will be a recurrence of CV-19 contagion spreading.

There is NO guarantee there will ever be an effective vaccine.

 

[austriaco]

From that CNN article:

In other words, if no vaccine is found, the lockdowns have to continue forever is that recommendation. That is because the lockdowns are preventing the development of herd immunity. Whenever the lockdowns are lifted without an effective vaccine, there will be a recurrence of CV-19 contagion spreading.

There is NO guarantee there will ever be an effective vaccine.

Yes correct, and because of that the government has told us clearly no more travelling to other countries. Thats the plan in Austria: no one out and no one in till 2021 or more. This is very very bad for me personally.


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[rubio_higuey]

Compared it with Austria which has the same Population size. (Belgium is larger)

Number of tests 26 times more and still 3 times more hidden cases then reported (as found out in a large random sample of the population)

Real number RD likely 77000 cases.

Yes the number of tests is a big influence.

Other influence: Why does Belgium have 10 times more death than Austria: later lockdown and less strict. -> same story DR: this toca de queda only parttime will kill a lot of people


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That there is a severe lack of testing in DR is absolutely the main reason why so "low" number of cases in the DR. I hear they do like 170-200 tests per day and from those they get their daily increase of 100+ cases. Have you noted that the case number / death number ratio is always in 5% range? I think the numbers are made up to add up. There are countries with much stricter lockdown measures which have similar case growth ratio daily on much larger population.

Moreover:
- Daily videos of people getting arrested after curfew... 1200+ daily and the number never been lower says PN
- Those people are held in patio together.... big crow, just one is infected and all go boom on virus
- Daily life here as nothing happens, people in the streets doing god knows what becaus ethey definitely ain't all going to banks or supermarkets and everything else is supposedly closed...
- Virus does not transmit from 5 pm to 6 pm so 24/7 curfew with going out to buy food, pharmacy, bank, gas and propane should be only valid reasons to go out.

As far as current curfew timing, there is a funny voice note going around whatsapp by someone saying that the virus came from "murciegalo" (with wrong spelling and all, murcielago is a bat) and that this "murciegalo" is a vampire and flyes around at night, and thats' why there is a curfew because the virus is "vampirish virus" that came from this "murciegalo". LOL.

 

[rubio_higuey]

Yes correct, and because of that the government has told us clearly no more travelling to other countries. Thats the plan in Austria: no one out and no one in till 2021 or more. This is very very bad for me personally.


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The virus will die down completely by end of summer if crazy decisions are not made. Look at China. I think we will be OK for Christmas travel.

 

[rubio_higuey]

From that CNN article:

In other words, if no vaccine is found, the lockdowns have to continue forever is that recommendation. That is because the lockdowns are preventing the development of herd immunity. Whenever the lockdowns are lifted without an effective vaccine, there will be a recurrence of CV-19 contagion spreading.

There is NO guarantee there will ever be an effective vaccine.

Yes correct, and because of that the government has told us clearly no more travelling to other countries. Thats the plan in Austria: no one out and no one in till 2021 or more. This is very very bad for me personally.

I had different impression from that article:

"Epidemiological and economic trade-offs will instead have to be faced. The choices at that juncture are likely to be difficult ones for politicians and citizens.

They said the idea "would help to restart prosperity before an extraordinary recession takes hold; it would lead to other societal benefits; it would also create a reasonably small, but unfortunately not negligible, extra risk to health in the country."


Balance will need to be stricken. International travel will go on. It's quite possible everyone wearing N95/N100 masks handed out by the airlines etc. The article refers to early withdrawal of lockdowns (e.g after 2-3 weeks). Not after 2-3 months. I think in mid-summer we will see toursist back in the DR. The complete lockdown forever until vaccine is found is not even remotely mentioned in the article. on the opposite, it talks about balance. And balance there will need to be unless we want the whole world go bankrupt, ransacking spreading like wildfire, governments being overthrown by violent protests etc. E.g. DR can not last more than one additional month of current economic lockdown (e.g. until mid-May).

 

[rubio_higuey]

this is very interesting... but no modeling data for DR, only US, CA, Europe
https://covid19.healthdata.org/

 

[william webster]

Rubio....
study up on the testing number -- i thinks it's over 500 daily...

The number of tests has gone up to 7936 which is about an extra 800 in the past 24 hours.

 

[cobraboy]

From that CNN article:

In other words, if no vaccine is found, the lockdowns have to continue forever is that recommendation. That is because the lockdowns are preventing the development of herd immunity. Whenever the lockdowns are lifted without an effective vaccine, there will be a recurrence of CV-19 contagion spreading.

There is NO guarantee there will ever be an effective vaccine.

Herd immunity is the ONLY viable answer.

Keep the sick and those most likely to suffer the most away from everyone else, period, full stop: the elderly with any possible co-morbidity.

Let everyone else assume regular life.

Some will get sick but few, if any, would die. We all would become immune, and the virus dies off. Then let the oldsters out.

Is there a better way?

Is not that what we did as kids, when our parents wanted us to play with the neighborhood kids with measles, chickenpox and mumps, while oldsters who never had those diseases or vaccines were kept far away?

 

[NanSanPedro]

Herd immunity is the ONLY viable answer.

Keep the sick and those most likely to suffer the most away from everyone else, period, full stop: the elderly with any possible co-morbidity.

Let everyone else assume regular life.

Some will get sick but few, if any, would die. We all would become immune, and the virus dies off. Then let the oldsters out.

Is there a better way?

Is not that what we did as kids, when our parents wanted us to play with the neighborhood kids with measles, chickenpox and mumps, while oldsters who never had those diseases or vaccines were kept far away?

While I agree with what you wrote generally, I would be careful as to how we define elderly. I'm 65 and that could be considered elderly. I have no problem in accepting the risk.

I would agree we need to keep those in a nursing home or assisted living facility quarantined because of their frailness and the fact that they're in a communal environment. But the rest of us need to make a decision as to whether we want to accept the risk or not.

 

[cobraboy]

While I agree with what you wrote generally, I would be careful as to how we define elderly. I'm 65 and that could be considered elderly. I have no problem in accepting the risk.

I would agree we need to keep those in a nursing home or assisted living facility quarantined because of their frailness and the fact that they're in a communal environment. But the rest of us need to make a decision as to whether we want to accept the risk or not.

Elderly WITH a possible co-morbidity.

I'm 68 and have none. I'm going on 19. I gladly accept the risk. I am not elderly at all.

But I do know some 60-year-olds with diabetes, heart issues, HBP, etc. They are not "elderly": per-se, but DO have co-morbidities...and should NOT take the risk.

 

[william webster]

71 here

Just an acid reflux pill daily....

Multi vitamin too

I don’t feel at risk..... but am taking none.... well a few

 

[USA DOC]

Herd immunity is the ONLY viable answer.

Keep the sick and those most likely to suffer the most away from everyone else, period, full stop: the elderly with any possible co-morbidity.

Let everyone else assume regular life.

Some will get sick but few, if any, would die. We all would become immune, and the virus dies off. Then let the oldsters out.

Is there a better way?

Is not that what we did as kids, when our parents wanted us to play with the neighborhood kids with measles, chickenpox and mumps, while oldsters who never had those diseases or vaccines were kept far away?

the flu from 1918 is still around today, its H1N1... if you get a flu shot in the USA H1N1 is in the shot every year.. had H1N1 several years ago in USA, could hardly drive myself a few blocks to the emergency room, was given Tamiflu.. recovered a number of days later.. if you live alone and stay home in bed you probably wont make it.....

 

[mart1n]

I am 77 year young you can get to say that when your older. Are they using that HQC that was shipped in or the stock they already had in the country? It's funny that the countries that have started using it the numbers have level off and starting to come down.

 

[NanSanPedro]

Elderly WITH a possible co-morbidity.

I'm 68 and have none. I'm going on 19. I gladly accept the risk. I am not elderly at all.

But I do know some 60-year-olds with diabetes, heart issues, HBP, etc. They are not "elderly": per-se, but DO have co-morbidities...and should NOT take the risk.

I'm jealous of you going on 19. I'm 65 going on 65 1/2. Some things hurt that never hurt before. But I still accept the risk.

 

[windeguy]

I had different impression from that article:

"Epidemiological and economic trade-offs will instead have to be faced. The choices at that juncture are likely to be difficult ones for politicians and citizens.

They said the idea "would help to restart prosperity before an extraordinary recession takes hold; it would lead to other societal benefits; it would also create a reasonably small, but unfortunately not negligible, extra risk to health in the country."


Balance will need to be stricken. International travel will go on. It's quite possible everyone wearing N95/N100 masks handed out by the airlines etc. The article refers to early withdrawal of lockdowns (e.g after 2-3 weeks). Not after 2-3 months. I think in mid-summer we will see toursist back in the DR. The complete lockdown forever until vaccine is found is not even remotely mentioned in the article. on the opposite, it talks about balance. And balance there will need to be unless we want the whole world go bankrupt, ransacking spreading like wildfire, governments being overthrown by violent protests etc. E.g. DR can not last more than one additional month of current economic lockdown (e.g. until mid-May).

Perhaps I was being facetious, about lockdowns forever. Perhaps not.

I completely agree that economics is going to be the main deciding factor in the near future. That is where the balance will overwhelmingly shift.

 

[cobraboy]

I'm jealous of you going on 19.

It's all in the noggin'.

And a little pain never hurt anyone...

 

[cobraboy]

71 here

Just an acid reflux pill daily....

Multi vitamin too

I don’t feel at risk..... but am taking none.... well a few

But you are also coming off of immune therapy, correct?

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

The idea behind the lock downs is to control the numbers of sick that flood the hospitals. Once the first wave is over and the number of patients currently in treatment stabilizes, then we can begin to gradually release parts of the population from lock down and begin to build up some general immunity.

This means that everyone you release who hasn't yet been sick and recovered will likely get sick. You can't release everyone at the same time or you end up right back where you started. First are those who have been shown to have recovered then some more and some more after that. It's going to take awhile especially here where healthcare resources are constrained.

If everyone gets sick on cue and recovers on cue, then you might be able to release some more people every month based on the number of hospital beds that are available.

Extensive testing and contact tracing is going to be important to keep the rate of new infections in check. If the govt can't pull that off, then I see the infection going exponential again.

 

[william webster]

A few years ago... yes......3 or 4 yrs ago

Keytruda -- a la Jimmy Carter