Current Caribbean and Atlantic Weather

Besides Arlene out there that is expected to mess some with Cuba, there are two other weather systems in our area at present. We should watch these to see what they do. From the Noaa discussion this evening...


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DUG ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH. EVEN THE ATMOSPHERE ON TOP OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS SURROUNDED BY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACTUALLY PASSES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N79W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 52W AND 70W. A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N57W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 31N63W... SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN 250 TO 350 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N61W THROUGH 32N64W TO 40N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N50W 23N56W 16N58W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALSO MAY BE ENHANCING THIS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N29W TO 20N34W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 31N39W. STATIONARY FRONT 31N39W BEYOND 32N44W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 48W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 25N72W.

Today, June 10, 2005

From the Noaa 1130am tropical weather outlook for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico...

Arlene seems to be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and clouds extend into Florida currently. I trust this very early tropical storm is not an indication of things to come..

I never know what the weather forecasters are really thinking when they describe "A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER". I always think of dark scenes from "One flew over the Cuckoo's Nest". Anyway, this disturbance extends from the Northeastern Caribbean Sea...Northeastward across the Leeward and Virgin Islands into the waters of the Atlantic Ocean.. This system is moving slowly Westward but is not expected to organize itself into a tropical cyclone formation. We may see some rain and clouds coming out of this weather system for a day or so.

The really good news according to Forecasters Avila/Knabb is that through Saturday, there are no signs that we can expect tropical storms to form.

Wonderful! So let's get back to our sleepy Island lives and check in again on Saturday. Huh? I just realized Saturday is tomorrow... Geez.

Today, June 11, 2005

Ken said:

Sure glad I no longer have a sailboat in Samana harbor to worry about.

Click to expand...

This is good news.

So, from the 530 AM Noaa advisory for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Arlene, still a tropical storm but she could intensify, is now over the Northern gulf of Mexico but the lower rain and cloud bands are more or less over us here in the DR.

The 'large area of disturbed weather' is slowly moving westward from its position over the Leeward and Virgin islands. The forecasters indicate that the upper level winds of this system are not organized enough for tropical cyclone development. Forecaster Beven says that this system may bring us some more cloud cover and rain.

All this seems to be quite normal for this time of the season, just a little early and the weather systems seem to be slightly stronger. What I would usually expect to see this time of year, is the 'easy-come easy-go' tropical storm in the afternoons, perhaps a few more than usual. Now, we have a named tropical storm that could strengthen into hurricane strength already in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm slowly getting the feeling that this year it is going to be 'hold on to your britches' time in our area of the world.

Today, June 12, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

Forecaster Stewart reports - widespread cloudiness with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across most of the cental and eastern Caribbean Sea and extends eastward across Hispaniola, the Leeward and Virgin Islands and into the waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

Down by Colombia there is some thunderstorm activity near a weak low pressure system. We'll see what this one brings but it is quite normal for this time of the year.

So for us, cloudiness and a few scattered showers with possibly a thunderstorm or two. Please have a look at the specific reports from the various areas in the DR, as our Island is large and diverse with different weather in different areas.

If you want to reference the complete <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/121058.shtml?">Tropical
Weather Discussion</a>, you'll see that there are a number of tropical waves and quite intricate weather patterns playing out around us at the moment.

Today, June 13 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

A broad surface trough is continuing to produce widespread cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms over the Central Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorm activity remains a little more concentrated about midway between Jamaica and Colombia.. and surface pressures continue to slowly fall in the area. Some slow development is possible over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northwestward into a region of improving upper-level winds.

A large area of cloudiness and showers continues from the Northeastern Caribbean Sea and the Leeward Islands northward over the Atlantic for several hundred miles. This Activity is drifting westward and is primarily associated with a large upper-level low. Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development to occur.

This satellite image shows both systems excellently. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html. If you have a look at this satellite loop, you can see how the systems interact. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

Forecaster Stewart assures us that nothing else out there is expected to suddenly turn into a tropical cyclone. We'll check again tomorrow.

Today, Jun 14, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A broad surface trough of low pressure, about 200 miles southeast of Jamaica over the Central Caribbean Sea, has remained nearly stationary. The showers and thunderstorms that we are experiencing is as a result of this system. Have a look where it is, in relation to the DR. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Some development of this system is still possible over the next day or two as it moves slowly NorthWestward. It is on the cards to send in an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft to investigate the system today.

We still have a large area of cloudiness and showers across the NorthEastern Caribbean Sea, NorthEastward into the Atlantic and stretching for several hundred miles. This system is not favorable for tropical cyclone development.

It all boils down to a lot of cloudcover over us here in the DR with showers and thunderstorms. This one takes a while to load, but it shows just how much cloud cover is over us at the moment. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

Remember your sunblock. Even though it feels a little cooler than what it really is, you can still pick up a really bad sunburn.

Have a quick look over the Atlantic Ocean to see the welcome news that there is no tropical activity in the Atlantic basin currently. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

Today, June 15, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The broad surface trough is now moving Northwards at 5 to 10 MPH. Rainfall and gusty winds may be possible today across portions of Jamaica...Hispaniola...Eastern Cuba, The SouthEastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos as this system moves on at last.

With no cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin, all is well on that side. Closer to home, with two tropical waves in the Caribbean Area, there is enough to keep our eyes on, right here.

Today, June 16th, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

There is very little change in our conditions since yesterday. Cloudiness and showers continue over the North-Central Caribbean Sea, The Southwestern Atlantic and adjacent land areas. Upper-level winds are unfavorable for Tropical Cyclone development to occur.

Today, June 17, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of disturbed weather is located about 300 miles South of Bermuda. This system remains poorly organized. However some slow development is possible over the next day or two as it moves NorthEastward.

Cloudiness and showers continue over portions of the Central and Western Caribbean Sea...mainly in association with an upper-level trough. Development is not expected at this time.

Forecaster Beven says that tropical storm formation is not expected in our area through Saturday.

Today, June 18th

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

All is quiet in our area today, in terms of tropical storm formation. Read your local forecasts to see local conditions.

Today, June 19, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

There are no indications of tropical storms forming in our area or over the Atlantic and off the African coast today. Read your local advisories to see local conditions. I expect it will be the usual sunny and hot conditions with tropical showers later in the day.

Today, June 20, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

At this time there are no tropical cyclone formations in our area. Two tropical waves may bring further isolated tropical showers and thunderstorms. It is hot and humid out there. Typical Caribbean Summer Weather.

Today, June 21, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Besides tropical waves, everything looks to be quiet. Hot, humid with possible tropical showers. Looking at the satellite images, it seems like we are lying in between two tropical waves and there is very little cloud cover over the DR at the moment. Normal summer caribbean weather with no storms on the horizon at this time.

Today, June 22, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Forecaster Pash tells us that cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over portions of the east-central caribbean sea and the adjacent land areas are associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for development.

This tropical wave brings an increased change of tropical showers today. It is blazing hot in the DR and a few showers are welcome to cool us down just a little. Read the specific area reports for more information.

And elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday. Finally, HB's 30 - 30 rule is a good one..

Today, June 23, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea

Cloudiness and showers over portions of the Central Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable for tropical cyclone development. Locally, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica and Eastern Cuba as the system moves West-Northwestward near 10 mph.

Looking over the Atlantic, all looks quiet and there are no tropical cyclones at this time. There sure are a number of tropical waves in our Caribean area presently. We are watching them carefully.

Today, June 25, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea

An area of cloudiness and showers extends from the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras east-northeastward across Jamaica to Eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. This activity has continued to decrease and conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

There are no tropical cyclones in The Atlantic at this time.

I happened to be in Samana yesterday. Wet, rainy, windy and grey. Hope they see some sunshine today.

The overall weather patterns are quite active and busy these days. We see a number of tropical waves born in the Atlantic and two tropical waves in the Caribbean at this time. A system in the West Atlantic that is approaching the Carolinas, may develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Today, June 26, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea

If you look at this satellite image, you can see that we're relatively cloud and shower free for the moment. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html. This does not mean that localized showers cannot happen and they probably will later in the day in the coastal areas. In our 'tropical cyclone hatcheries', there are no signs of tropical storm or cyclone development for the moment.

Hot conditions with localized showers for today. However, read the local weather reports as our island is diverse in its geography and what works in one area, does not necessarily work in another.

Today, June 27 2005

From the 530 AM discussion - for the Caribbean Sea

There is quite a complex thing weatherwise happening around us. There are no tropical cyclones in formation at this time but conditions seem to bring us closer to the kind of weather pattern that would be the ideal breeding ground for tropical stoms and cyclones. From Noaa's discussion this morning...

The primary focus today is over the Western Caribbean and Central America where
....deep layered moisture pooling,
....associated with a pair of tropical waves,
....coupled with diffluent flow aloft,
is producing widespread cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms. This is happening primarily around West Honduras and El Salvador westward into S Mexico, East of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
The strongest of this activity is currently located over Guatemala and Belize, but additional activity is moving onshore Honduras/Nicaragua.
Strong showers and thunderstorms are also noted over the Yucatan channel.

Now here is where this weather pattern affects us.

This activity should gradually spread westward during the next 24 hours as a much drier airmass currently over the Central Caribbean overspreads this area. Over the Central and East Caribbean...Middle to Upper Level confluence and dry/stable air W of an upper low near 13N 62W dominates the area East of Jamaica.

This pattern is suppressing deep convective activity excepting for some widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm currently over the North East Caribbean, mainly North of 13N and East of 70W. This means us here in the DR - widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms....

Now here is the important part. The pattern will become more unstable over the E Caribbean during the next two days with increasing cloudiness and showers/thunderstorms as the upper low moves Westward and deep layered moisture returns. So, we may see more water coming down and more wind over the next few days. This is all fairly normal for this time of the year - and those tropical waves keep forming.