Current Caribbean and Atlantic Weather

[Chris]

Today, June 28, 2005

Yesterday's pattern seem to be continuing, albeit a little further to the North. For us, the pattern of scattered showers and thundershowers should continue. This is a good thing as these showers bring a little relief from the summer heat. There are no tropical cyclones forming anywhere in our area at present. Have a look at the local weather reports for localized information. A tropical depression is threatening form in the Bay of Campeche, about 140 miles east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Although too far away to be of direct consequence, this does affect our overall weather picture.

From the 530 AM discussion - for the Caribbean Sea
Due to the mid/upper ridge over the Gulf, there is Northerly flow over the Gulf West of 77 West. This is forcing remnant showers South into the West Caribbean mainly North of 20 North and West of 77 West. A cut-off upper low is over the Eastern Caribbean near 15 North 69 West with a mid/upper trough extending from North East of Puerto Rico near 20 North 65 West SouthWest, to inland over Venezuela, near 11 North and 71 West. This is generally leaving the Eastern Caribbean dry, with only isolated low level showers north of 15 North and East of 76 West and scattered showers over the lesser Antilles.

Here is the satellite picture for the day. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

and the map on this page (scroll down a little) shows the DR in relation to the Eastern and Western Caribbean.
http://stormcarib.com/climatology/

 

[Chris]

Today, June 30, 2005

From the 5.30 Tropical Weather Outlook for the for the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea

There are no tropical cyclones forming anywhere in our area at present. Have a look at the local weather reports for localized information. A mid/upper level trough extends from the Central/Western Atlantic through the windward passage over Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. This trough is leaving our area of the Caribbean mostly dry. As the trough contues to shift West, we may see a few more tropical showers over the weekend.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 1, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Cloudiness and Thunderstorms continue over a large portion of the Central and Southwestern Caribbean Sea...primarily associated with a westward moving tropical wave. There are no signs of organization at this time, but upper-level winds are forecast to become favorable for some development during the next day or two as the system moves over the Western Caribbean Sea.

There are no tropical systems developing in the Atlantic at present.

Here you can see our current cloud cover. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html. It is a good thing too as it will keep us a little cooler.

Uhm, July 1st today. Perhaps I should go and check the statistics for tropical storms and hurricanes in July.

OK, went to check statistics. But first for those weather enthusiasts among us that are really 'out there..read loco' check this out. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Caribbean.shtml. You can put in the buoy number (the two closest to us is SJNP4 and MGIP4 and see the actual sea conditions. This is interesting to watch during a tropical storm.

Oh yes, before I forget, the probability of having a named storm in July is for us, very low... http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns_prob_july.gif

 

[Chris]

Today, July 2, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A tropical wave is producing an extensive area of cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms across portions of the North-Central and North-Western Caribbean sea and adjacent land areas. Upper-Level winds are gradually expected to become more favorable and some slow development could occur over the next couple of days as the system moves West-Northwestward at 10 - 15 mph.

At present, there are no tropical storms forming in the Atlantic.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 4, 2005

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

...The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on tropical depression three, located over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, about 100 miles SouthWest of Cozumel.

...A large and well-defined tropical wave is moving through the Windward Islands this morning. This system is moving westward at about 20 MPH...and continues to show signs of organization. Conditions appear somewhat favorable for slow development to occur over the next couple of days. Squally (for the landlubbers, this means frequent and quick tropical storms...) weather will continue to spread across the Southern Lesser Antilles...NorthEastern Venezuela and the SouthEastern Caribbean Sea today, resulting in period of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Let's see what this wave does as it gets a little closer to us.

Elsewhere...Tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 5th

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Tropical Depression 3 became Cindy, our 2nd named tropical storm of the season, located in the Gulf of Mexico about 225 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississipi river.

More important for us today however, is tropical depression four which is located in the Eastern Caribbean Sea about 415 miles/670 kilometers south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. This tropical depression is becoming better organized and is nearing tropical storm strength.

A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Southern Coast of Hispaniola later today. Have a look at the graphics. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092623.shtml?3day

At 5 AM EDT the center of tropical depression four was located near lattitude 12.6 North..Longitude 64.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph or 28 km/hr and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph or 55 km/hr with higher gusts. This depression could become a tropical storm later today.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 6th 2005

From the 530 AM tropical weather discussion - for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea

Stormy weather with bands of showers/thunderstorms covers the Leeward Islands to Hispaniola courtesy of moisture from Dennis which is passing us well to the South.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 7th 2005

The weather news of the day in the Caribbean is still Dennis, who has slowed down somewhat and is strenghtening while he spins down on Jamaica. For us, it was wet and windy night, courtesy of Dennis trailing his bands all over us. Strong showers and thunderstorms cover practically all of the Dominican Republic. Low lying areas are flooded and you all should take good care while driving as many roads are flooded. Early estimates are that between 5 and 10 inches of rain fell over last 12 hours. Dennis could become a strong Category 2 Hurricane when it reaches Jamaica later today.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean the weather is fairly nice.

Generally over the Atlantic this morning we see two tropical waves with another tropical wave just north of Brazil, as well as a cell of showers a little northeast of Barbados. It is too early to tell whether these could develop into storms.

Here is our picture for the day.. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Have a look at the local reports for local conditions.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 9th 2005

From the 530 AM tropical weather discussion - for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea

Hurricane Dennis dominates the weather story in our immediate area. Although we're not really feeling the effects of Dennis any longer, the current cloud cover, wind and tropical showers can still be ascribed to the lingering effects of Dennis.

In the mean time, satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a tropical wave located halfway between African and Lesser Antilles, has become a little better organized. There is a potential for slow development as the wave moves westward during the next day or two.

We'll keep our eyes on this one.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 10th

From the 530 PM tropical weather discussion - for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea

All eyes are still on Hurricane Dennis who, around 2.30 pm today, slammed into the Florida Panhandle just North of Pensacola. We wish the storm-weary and storm-battered folks in this area all the best.

Closer to home, a vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure area...is located about 1180 miles east of the Southern Lesser Antilles. This system has continued to become better organized and conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to develop overnight or tomorrow. The wave is moving Westward at 10 to 15 MPH.

We?ll keep our eyes on this one!

 

[Chris]

Today, July 11, 2005

From the 5 AM tropical weather discussion and various sources - for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.

There is quite a lot happening around us..

Tropical depression 5 is gradually strengthening while continuing Westward over the tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

The cloud pattern has become a little better organized over the past several hours. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the location of the center. Some increase in forward speed is anticipated as the system moves away from the influences in the Eastern Atlantic and becomes more embedded in an Easterly steering current as it nears our side of the world.

At 5am the center was located near 10.8 North and 43.6 West or about 1185 miles/1910 KM east of the Windward Islands. The depression is moving toward the West near 12 MPH...19 KM/HR and a continued westward motion with some increase in speed is expected during the next 24 hours.

We have a mid/upper level low in the Central Caribbean, South of Jamaica around 15N76W, moving westward. Upper cyclonic flow covers the area from 68W to 83W. Mid/Upper level ridge from the West Atlantic extends over the NW Caribbean to the Gulf of Honduras W of 83W. This is leaving the area cloud and shower free.

A second mid/Upper level ridge covers the E Caribbean E of 68W and is allowing tropical moisture over the lesser Antilles. The upper low over the Central Caribbean is aiding the generation of scattered showers.

The expectation for the week is that the upper ridge over the Western Atlantic will expand and cover most of the Caribbean before mid week and tropical depression 5 is expected to move into the Caribbean area by the end of this week.
<a href="http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html">Here</a> you can see the systems as well as the remnants of now Tropical Storm Dennis.

 

[Chris]

Today July 12, 2005

The news of the day, is that Tropical Depression five has turned into Tropical Storm Emily. A separate thread can be found here: http://www.dr1.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41656

Looking over the Atlantic, the tropical wave located about 900 miles SouthWest of the Cape Verde Islands has shown little change in organization overnight. Development...if any...is expected to be slow as this system moves Westward.

Over the rest of the Caribbean, the Western Two thirds is dominated by a mid/upper level low, located just South of Jamaica. With the abundance of tropical moisture, we should see scattered showers and perhaps stronger breezes than usual.

You can see Emily quite clearly on this satellite image. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

 

[gc2001it]

i'll come to La Romana-Bayahibe, i think is near Santo Domingo.
yesterday I have known of a name hurricane emily. I wanted to know if between 14/07 and 21/07 they were previewed beautiful time

 

[Chris]

Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Looking over the Atlantic - An area of low pressure located about 550 Miles West of the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression during the next day or so, as it moves Westward near 20 MPH.

Closer to us, have a look at the Emily thread here. http://www.dr1.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41656

 

[Chris]

Thursday, July 14th

Emily is taking our time but let's have a quick look over to the African Coast...

A fairly disorganized tropical wave is located about 800 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands...and upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for tropical cyclone development. It is moving West-NorthWestward towards warmer waters at 15 to 20 mph.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 15th 2005

530 am Outlook

While Emily is passing us to the South, a tropical wave about 1000 miles East of the Leewards has become better organized. Thunderstorm activity is increasing and upper-level winds are a little more favorable for tropical cyclone development to occur over the next few days.

The system is moving West-NorthWestward at 10 to 15 MPH.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 17th

530 am Outlook and Discussion for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.

Looks like we have some drier air flowing in in the wake of Emily and this should stabilize our weather conditions to something that we are used to... breezes and late afternoon and evening tropical showers.

Tropical waves in the Atlantic are unfavorable for development at this time and there are no other systems out there that show signs of development at this time.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 18, 2005

530 am Outlook and Discussion for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.

Emily is making her way across the Yucutan Peninsula as we speak...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

The rest of our hurricane breeding grounds are fairly quiet at present and none of the tropical waves in the Atlantic, or weather systems closer to us, are showing signs of development at this time.

 

[Chris]

Today, July 19

530 am Outlook and Discussion for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.

We have an embedded upper low South of us near 15 N 73 W. In combination with a tropical wave moving across the Eastern Caribbean, we should see some showers and thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected in our area for the next 24 hours.

 

[LynnCox]

La Romana weather 7/19

530 am Outlook and Discussion for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.

We have an embedded upper low South of us near 15 N 73 W. In combination with a tropical wave moving across the Eastern Caribbean, we should see some showers and thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected in our area for the next 24 hours.

It's absolutely pouring here in La Romana and windy, I'd say according to Chris's handy dandy windspeed calculator 19-24 mph, cold, thunder and lightening. According to my most recent email from hwn.org at 5:30 pm: A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. figure it's heading to SDQ if you're not already seeing signs of it....

Lynn