2015 Hurricane Season

[Olly]

First one of the Season for DR? Invest 93L

Invest 93 L - Worth watching?

From the NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected
to be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend, with upper-level winds becoming
less favorable early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Olly and the Team

 

[windeguy]

http://www.weather.com/news/weather/video/possible-tropical-system-in-the-atlantic

 

[Contango]

Keep us posted.. I want to know when to move in the patio furniture..

 

[Rasputin]

I don't live here and must admit I have never seen a hurricane or even a tropical storm and don't want to. Every storm is different and there are many variables I know, but as a general guess based on the experience of the weather watchers who have been here a long time, how long does it generally take for a possible storm to appear and reach the islalnd or track to a point where it is no longer considered a threat? Are we talking days, a week or two?

 

[Olly]

Rasputin, In this case the early track forcast puts in near the DR in about 5 days but in tow or three we will know if it will develop into a Storm.

Olly and the Team

 

[Rasputin]

Thank you Olly and your Team.

I think I'll look at the NOAA site. I think they may give a predicted timeline for events for some storms.

 

[MikeFisher]

it's a early stage, as the low appeared not even 24hrs ago, so wild guess factors are of course involved,
but to me, under the line, it looks like a No-Show for Hispa?iola.
the next 72hrs show conditions which allow a system to form up, late monday ahead the Windshear is scaled against storm development, when it would reach the closer vicinity of the caribbean islands.
stormy portions at this early stage are concentrated on it's northern sectors, most at the north central of the low pressure center, that would make(IF something forms at all) it a NW-drifter passing the NE'ern-most Islands on their NE with the highest powers away from the Islands.
as Olly said, we have to wait til the weekend is over, it will thenhave passed the half way point of the highway/between Cape Verde's and Caribbean Islands, somewhere during monday it should show a face that can be forecasted reasonably, about a real direction and the then present real conditions for the following couple days(Tuesday and Wednesday).

over all conditions look nice in favor of the Islands this year so far.
not that a storm could not form up, but the conditions are on all aspects marking towards the edges which are not perfectly favorable for a superstorm to build.
the next 12 weeks will tell, entering the hot phase as far as our Island is concerned usually starts around mid august.
by present conditions and the movements of the last months, i do not see any superstorm brewing up on the highway for this season at all. strong tropical storms and weak struggling hurricanes forces are the maximum i would expect out of our far east.

this season's danger zones with well better conditions for stormy development, are the western caribbean sea, the gulf of mexico and the off-shores of the us-american SE. in those areas the season should provide it's number of Tropical Storms, with their usual low % of those to become a hurricane, as it is those storms that start to form up close to Land and hit quickly, before they had the time to become a mayor force.
as the very seldom take a eastern route, (that's when a Storm in the western caribbean sea becomes a threat for our Isle), i have hope to enjoy a quiet and calm summer.

enjoy a sunny and calm weekend eveyone
(thats what is forecast for the SE-shores here at my place, hehe)

Mike

 

[Olly]

Here is the update from Dave - Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands
Good afternoon from the drought stricken NE Caribbean!

While no one wishes for a full blown hurricane, other than out of work contractors, many who I have talked to recently have been wishing for a slow moving minimal tropical storm, tropical depression or just a real well defined and active tropical wave to alleviate the drought conditions here in the NE Caribbean including Puerto Rico. 93L just "might" be our first alleviation.

Key word is "might". 93L is currently located approx. 1000 miles SSW of the Caper Verde islands. While the near term bodes moderately well for some development, the long term does anything but. Near term, the sea surface temperatures (SST), are at the minimum for sustainable development and slow at that, while in an atmosphere of decent moisture. An anti-cyclone is directly above the perceived center of the system (I'm not saying circulation because there is not a defined circulation yet) which is assisting in the minimization of wind shear. The one downside for the near term is 93L's forward speed. It needs to slow down so that vertical enhancement can take place. With that said, for a very early CV or Cape Verde spawned system, the chance for development into a named storm, weak as it may become, is a decent possibility. But, that window is short lived.

The long term prospects for an actual named system surviving into the Caribbean are possible but at the remote end of the scale. Models which do not handle non-named systems mostly bring 93L or whatever it is in 5 days, to the NE Caribbean. By that time, the ingestion of dry Saharan Dust ladened air will have stifled development while jet stream-like wind shear (driven by El Nino) will effectively kill what's left over.

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. One thing it will definitely do is start to moisten the atmosphere for future waves. The draconian grip of the SAL (Saharan Air Level) appears to be loosening which is good news for allergy and drought sufferers alike. Not to mention a pretty blue sky has been hard to come by lately!

Keep an eye to the east. It's early and the forecast for the number of storms in all categories is down mainly due to a strong El Nino. But we have had bad tropical systems in previous strong El Nino years. Andrew? Remember, it only takes one.

Dave

Olly and the Team

 

[MikeFisher]

perfect blue skies all year long til now here on the southern tip of the east,
the very few days without a perfect blue sky been extreme seldom exceptions so far, lol.
at the moment we have on our east a nice protecting barrier up, containing the Saharan Air Layer, nice anti-cyclone-development windshear, sea surface temperatures just slightly above the necessary treshhold to allow storm development closer the the East of the Islands.
what may get a form far out there mid highway, has at the actually given conditions closer to the Islands not much of fueling, the opposite, already existing powers would weaken quickly.
a already existing storm approaching the vicinity entering the 600 miles zone of the eastern Islands, walking WWNW'wards, would already need well defined powers and walk in quickly to pass the barrier zone with still a defined center on duty.
now, IF such system manages to pass the barrier and manages to enter the Caribbean Sea with a functioning circulation, then it could stay alive or even start again to gain some powers back.
but it's all far away, future guess's for after the 2nd august week ahead.
right now, it would need a powerful system to pass the barrier intact, and such is not present out there.
our main watering will stay the little bit that manages to move from the south american continent over the caribbean sea to reach our soil.
we will stay mostly dry.

Mike

 

[Olly]

Invest 93 L - Dissepated

Rasputin et al - Invest 93 L has not developed and now is just a tropical wave. We might get some rain out of it in a Few days.

Olly and the Team

 

[Rasputin]

Good news, I think we need the rain, not the drama.

 

[MikeFisher]

Good news, I think we need the rain, not the drama.

1000 miles out there, east of the islands, at this moment nothing looks like any kinda rain or such to come anywhere near our soil. IF we get some isolated by location rains, they come from much closer points.
but if you take a look on the San Juan/PR Radar Station, not really anything out there to be named Rain.
NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

comparison of the eastern pacific SST's of the strong El Ni?o "preparations" from the 97/98 El Ni?o to our conditions now in july 2015.
looks really good so far, to get great protective conditions for the peak part of this season.
Phoyo taken from NOAA.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

here we have a first far East/off the western african coast Wave.
it is not running under the best conditions and at this moment the highway would allow slow development only.
chances are high that it will disappear during the weekend.
nothing to worry about at this time,
we wait and see what is out there IF it reaches the Half Way Margin on the highway towards the caribbean.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

the Wave, which left the african continent a couple days ago,
passed the south of the Cape Verde Islands and is now located somewhere 650-700nmls SW of the Cape Verde's.
the "best" environment to gather thunderstorm activity and start a early spin, been right there.
this Wave did not manage anything during the last 48hrs, it can be dismissed.

our "Highway", those 2500nmls between the african Westshores and the Caribbean Island belt, located between the 10 and 15th North, is at this time running it's full protection shield Up.
Conditions to run development, in case a Tropical Wave and a Low Pressure System mingle to start that "Fukcing around to give birth to a Tropical Storm Formation", those conditions are actually perfectly against development over the whole Highway, even into the Eastern and also the Central Caribbean Sea.
some Keyfactors of our extra strong Protection Shield are
* Atmosphere is very stable on a wide spectrum
* Atmosphere out there is actually Bonedry over the whole Tropical Atlantic, no moisture to feed from
* we have a thick SAL(the layer of Saharan Sand in the Atmosphere), covering the whole Highway into the Caribbean Sea

to me it looks like we are perfectly safe for several weeks(careful with such interpretion, such can not be forecasted for long terms, everything over 5 days ahead of time hides high failure %%%).
by today's conditions it would take at least 2 strong tropical waves, bringing a lot of moisture with them already when they hit atlantic waters, to clean a bit of a path/moisture a lane/sukc up the SAL, so a 3rd strong Wave could find conditions which allow development strong enough to become a power to watch out for.
such waves would also need to appear within a week or less, to produce conditions that would favor storm development.

July is over and Island Life looks all fine and safe in case of those big Cape Verde Hurricanes.

to me the conditions look the same as i described them on the pre Season Outlook.
that means the areas, where the stormy formations of the next weeks take place, are the farest western caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the waters off/near the SE-Shores of the USA.
traditionally none of those areas produces storms which would become a danger for our own Island, in all Hurricane history there been only very few who moved from the western caribbean Sea Eastwards towards Hispa?iola or from the shores of Florida and the Carolinas SE-wards over the Bahamas towards our Paradise.

don't stock too much canned food for long term survivals,
stock the usual wine and rum and beers for the BBQ of This weekend.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

that one been a quicky again.
it did not even come close to the half way point of the highway journey.
we can dismiss it.
no TS activity visible, no moister collected, no spin of anything.
the highway did not really get "wet"/moistered, all stays fine.

Mike

 

[Criss Colon]

We might not need a "Cyclone",...but we could sure use a "Tropical Wave" to park over us for a few days!!!!!

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[MikeFisher]

We might not need a "Cyclone",...but we could sure use a "Tropical Wave" to park over us for a few days!!!!!

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yeah,
we really could use a wave or 2 parking over our heads, at least on the east.
btw,
we just had a wave, sorrily insignificantly weak, parking for a short while,
due that 2 nights ago we got some real raining hours on the eastshores.
not that it would have been a waterload that ends the drought,
but at least iw was real hours of almost continuously raining down on us.
we could need some more of such events, maybe one that last 12-15hrs with opened heaven gates, lol.
i guess you guys in SD or up north are not much/any better off as we are on the East, DRY, right?

as far as Cyclone dangers go, nothing to spot to "hope" that anything would come up any soon out of the far East.

Mike

 

[Criss Colon]

We need heavy, steady,DAYS, of rain to park over the center of the country where the dams are located.
That way it can soak in, and not just run back into the ocean.
My maid is happy, no water to wash the floors!!!

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[Contango]

yeah,
we really could use a wave or 2 parking over our heads, at least on the east.
btw,
we just had a wave, sorrily insignificantly weak, parking for a short while,
due that 2 nights ago we got some real raining hours on the eastshores.
not that it would have been a waterload that ends the drought,
but at least iw was real hours of almost continuously raining down on us.
we could need some more of such events, maybe one that last 12-15hrs with opened heaven gates, lol.
i guess you guys in SD or up north are not much/any better off as we are on the East, DRY, right?

as far as Cyclone dangers go, nothing to spot to "hope" that anything would come up any soon out of the far East...

Mike

That was a heavy storm hey Mike? I don't recall a storm like that in a long time... it kept seeming to end, and then it would start up again..I noticed some small flooding the next day I hadn't seen in a while