2015 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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thats right, too much rain at a time, specially when the grounds are bone dry, is not good.
a few hours at a time, then a day of rest, then a few more hours, til the ponds and reservoirs are refilled on a reasonable level.
btw,
it is raining here at my place most of the late evening and still on,
this way it can continue, every evening a few hours with a bit of water on and off.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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new update on Danny now from 11:45PM.
da Biach is quickly raising the bar.
40mphr winds,
central pressure dropped a lot to 1000mb
forward speed on 14mphr
a intensifying storm even not under best conditions.

always interesting to watch for myself and see how close/far my expectations hit/miss.
in case of our Island, we have still some days to wait, before first asumptions about a final path or such can be made.

Mike
 

Cdn_Gringo

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Apr 29, 2014
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I have not experienced a hurricane before. I am hoping that Danny moves by us at sufficient distance to keep the winds reasonable. Historically my area is usually not directly hit, usually. I live on a slight hill so flooding is not a concern nor are landslides. However, mi casa has lots of glass and many many points of air infiltration. I expect that my management company will not be arriving to tape up or put plywood on the the windows. During a storm with driving winds, I will be spending most of my time mopping up water as it comes in under the doors and around windows that are poorly sealed.

I know to move stuff up off the floor and I know to bring inside anything that would otherwise take flight and disappear over the horizon. What I do not know is where to find storm shelters. I really don't want to be in one, but sometimes it may be prudent to sit out one's first strong storm in a place where safety is a better bet when one has no experience upon which to make a good decision about staying or leaving.

How are these situation handled here in the DR? Where does one go to get information and recommendations from the authorities as it pertains to specific locals and whether it is prudent to seek better shelter or stay home? I can use a mop, and I can certainly tape windows but I do not really want to be in a house with no windows with rain, debris and 100 mph winds. I know better than to leave during a storm. I just have no experience upon which to make basic decisions when it becomes clear that a storm is actually going to track a course of concern.

I have food, water and a means to keep small electric devices charged. I have neighbours who would offer me shelter if the walls come tumbling down if we could get there without being hit in the head by a flying coconut or the whole tree. Radio reports don't do me much good. I understand much more Spanish than I did a year ago, but there is is till much work to be done before I can rely on my comprehension to know when to run or where to run to.

What do you folks do in these situations?
 

william webster

Rest In Peace WW
Jan 16, 2009
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typically, the north coast is an easy ride.

Katrina (I think) was headed for Cabo Frances Viejo.... people asked if that was near me...How 'bout my front door?

Anyway, we were unscathed by itall.

Don't overeact Buster.... you'll be fine
 

windeguy

Platinum
Jul 10, 2004
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My totally uninformed opinion is that Danny will head east for a while, then go north before it reaches PR's longitude and fizzle out.
 

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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What do you folks do in these situations?

Mop up water. Wait for the storm to pass. Use a generator until power is restored. The North coast (Cabarete) has never had a hurricane in recorded history.
A tropical storm with winds in the upper 60 mph range did go directly over us in Cabarete a few years back. So that was close but no cigar as far as hurricanes on the north coast go.
 

Cdn_Gringo

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Apr 29, 2014
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I'm not panicking and I am sleeping just fine. I'm just interested before the need actually arises. I know that historically my area is not usually in the path of big storms but "usually" does not mean "never is".
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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nothing bad to report about Danny.
since the 1PM update last night,
there is no further intensification visible til now,
it is now on it's same 50mphr winds, 1000mb central pressure, moving WWNW on 14mphr.
by it's actual movement, taking in the "forecasted/awaited" winds on mid and high level, which are the steering powers for directions of a system, it would be a typical No-Show for our Isle,
passing NE of the northernmost Islands even missing Puerto Rico by a good piece.
but such tracking depends on so many factors which are just expected/forecasted to happen, conditions which do now not exist, yet, and once in a while such conditions never come up that way or happen many hours earlier/later than forecasted, such would bring the system on a different route and would let it grow faster or slower/die down.
it is still far away, all to do is to enjoy those sunny beachdays during this week and be aware of news about Danny, once it reached the vicinity of the Islands.
during the last 10hrs Danny did not gain any further powers, it's stuck at the moment.
such phases are normal, for many hours they do not gain a thing of power, and for hours they run a quick high intensification or get knocked down some notches.
as windshear is still very low and waters warm enough to develop further,
I would expect the dry air to be the breakes in the race.
the Storm was very wide first, but last evening cut down on size, a huge area of it's south been gotten rid of.
due that it could get a better spin and concentrate the TS action together, hence the quick intesification for a few hours, pessure was dropping very quick from 1008 down to 1000mb, which is a big drop and strengthens a Storm significantly.
but then late evening it abruptely stopped.
while the smaller size get's it easier to catrch a better Spin and organize a perfect Round Center and can run higher intensification in short time frames, it also is more vulnerable to the surrounding conditions.
and that hard part of surrounding condition is a heck of dry air in the mid atmosphere.
the full updates run sheduled for 11AM and 5PM AST during the days, unless significant changes would make a warning necessary.
let's enjoy the sunny day and see what it looks like this late afternoon.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Cdn Gringo.
if you live in a concrete built house with real walls and a non-Zink/Thatched Roof,
such "Hurricane" will not do you any harm.
our own personal "shelter", in case there would ever be the need for such extra safe place, is one of our bathrooms, the one which has no windows. surrounded by the other rooms, conrete walls and roof, such would be the safest place to knock back some cold beers, watch a Kid's Movie with wife and daughter as long as it lasts or as long as the batteries hold.
just do not forget to stock on a reasonable amount of cold beers and store them with Ice, as your power would go out, unless you are backupped by batteries or such.
do never do the so often done mistake, to go outside to film a Storm, such Vids and Photos come out fantastic, yes, but such stu behavior is the most common reason for the numbers on the deadrolls of a Storm.
once the wind goes down, you can leave the saferoom and take a look out the windows, do NOT start any beachwalk or such to get nosy, as in case of a close encounter with the center of a Storm, the game is played in 2 rounds.
round one is over, it gets even completely calm/windfree for a while, can last a couple hours, then round 2 starts up from one moment to an other, just like that in an eyeblink, and nosy people are caught on the streets or beach.
we experienced the center of a Storm here when Jeanne went thru/over us.
the stormwinds been zero problem for the house, we are not located vulnerable for floodings, so the water pressed in under the doors been the only inconveniency during the long hours of the 2 rounds game.
anyways,
the "Saferoom" was never necessary to be used.
living in a concrete house, in case of big glass front sure tap the windows with plywood(we have such double/tripple wide Veranda Glass Door, of course with a straight look to the Ocean and the Coconut Trees in the tropical garden, lol), tap the windows and stay inside away from such glass structures, stay in the other rooms.
keep in mind that power will go down, maybe for a few hours, maybe for days or a week, depending on damages for specific areas on their elec poles along the roads.
store sufficient 5 gallon buckets of drinking water for the number of persons in the house.
fill empty 5 gallon buckets/washing machne/other Cans with tap water to be used to flush the toilets and for showering, in case you would be without electricity for several day(like at my place, no Tinacos, just a big automatic pump for that comfy high water pressure, no Elec means No Water).
Hurricane Shelters?
nope, not really.
people in high vulnerable areas get evacuated, that's usually only for areas very vulnerable to flooding/mudslides, like the squatters along the big rivers.
your home is your shelter.
if your home feels unsafe to you, seek out on time a safer place/friends house/neighbour.

Mike
 

william webster

Rest In Peace WW
Jan 16, 2009
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I'm not panicking and I am sleeping just fine. I'm just interested before the need actually arises. I know that historically my area is not usually in the path of big storms but "usually" does not mean "never is".

Remember to look after Bailey......you'd be lonely without him.
 

AlterEgo

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 9, 2009
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South Coast
Cdn Gringo.
if you live in a concrete built house with real walls and a non-Zink/Thatched Roof,
such "Hurricane" will not do you any harm.
our own personal "shelter", in case there would ever be the need for such extra safe place, is one of our bathrooms, the one which has no windows. surrounded by the other rooms, conrete walls and roof, such would be the safest place to knock back some cold beers, watch a Kid's Movie with wife and daughter as long as it lasts or as long as the batteries hold.
just do not forget to stock on a reasonable amount of cold beers and store them with Ice, as your power would go out, unless you are backupped by batteries or such.
do never do the so often done mistake, to go outside to film a Storm, such Vids and Photos come out fantastic, yes, but such stu behavior is the most common reason for the numbers on the deadrolls of a Storm.
once the wind goes down, you can leave the saferoom and take a look out the windows, do NOT start any beachwalk or such to get nosy, as in case of a close encounter with the center of a Storm, the game is played in 2 rounds.
round one is over, it gets even completely calm/windfree for a while, can last a couple hours, then round 2 starts up from one moment to an other, just like that in an eyeblink, and nosy people are caught on the streets or beach.
we experienced the center of a Storm here when Jeanne went thru/over us.
the stormwinds been zero problem for the house, we are not located vulnerable for floodings, so the water pressed in under the doors been the only inconveniency during the long hours of the 2 rounds game.
anyways,
the "Saferoom" was never necessary to be used.
living in a concrete house, in case of big glass front sure tap the windows with plywood(we have such double/tripple wide Veranda Glass Door, of course with a straight look to the Ocean and the Coconut Trees in the tropical garden, lol), tap the windows and stay inside away from such glass structures, stay in the other rooms.
keep in mind that power will go down, maybe for a few hours, maybe for days or a week, depending on damages for specific areas on their elec poles along the roads.
store sufficient 5 gallon buckets of drinking water for the number of persons in the house.
fill empty 5 gallon buckets/washing machne/other Cans with tap water to be used to flush the toilets and for showering, in case you would be without electricity for several day(like at my place, no Tinacos, just a big automatic pump for that comfy high water pressure, no Elec means No Water).
Hurricane Shelters?
nope, not really.
people in high vulnerable areas get evacuated, that's usually only for areas very vulnerable to flooding/mudslides, like the squatters along the big rivers.
your home is your shelter.
if your home feels unsafe to you, seek out on time a safer place/friends house/neighbour.

Mike

Center/Eye of the storm can be dangerous when people don't know what it is. Back in the day, an uncle of Mr. AE died when he went out during the calm eye to buy water, a piece of flying zinc roofing hit him on his way back when winds cranked up.
 

ju10prd

On Vacation!
Nov 19, 2014
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North Coast residents and especially WW would definitely not like this mornings 8am run of the BAMM model becoming reality.

Steers north of PR and into NC at Cabrera.

But historically unlikely.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
North Coast residents and especially WW would definitely not like this mornings 8am run of the BAMM model becoming reality.

Steers north of PR and into NC at Cabrera.

But historically unlikely.

nope.
no steering winds forecast at this moment would bring a Storm, which already passed to the North of the Islands/Puerto Rico,
back down on a southerly track, and such out ofr the norm stering would be necessary to bring a Storm towards the NC, after it passed the eastern Islands to their NE/N.
once it passed the northernmost Islands, the next destin are the Bahamas and the final destin somewhere on the USA Mainland.
but nothing looks like any of such scenarios, anyways too early to tell what will be next week, in case of Danny da lil Biach.

looking on the development/changes of the last 6hrs(5AM-11AM today),
Danny sized itself down but could not intensify at all.
it is def a hard struggling Storm, suffering from dry Lungs, and that over warm waters and without significant windshear.
closer to the caribbean, the upper level winds will blow it's hat off and while still breathing that dry air, it will burn it's heart out and kick it to hel l.
no pressure drop since 12hrs now,
no increase on windspeeds since 12hrs,
forward speed is slowing down again.

my personal bet is, that Da Biach will not survive as any significant power, once reaching the islands, IF it reaches them at all as anything other than a cloudy rainy thingy.

but again, it's all wild guess's, we are just mid week of a event that may last an other week, IF it survives.

just had a look on the Surf Forecast.
wave height for Macao Beach/Uvero Alto been forecasted to pass very well above 3 meters monday and tuesday.
since Danny shows struggles, it's revised now down to 1-1.5 meters, and on a declining tendency.

Mike
 

william webster

Rest In Peace WW
Jan 16, 2009
30,246
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North Coast residents and especially WW would definitely not like this mornings 8am run of the BAMM model becoming reality.

Steers north of PR and into NC at Cabrera.

But historically unlikely.

Just send me some rain.....

I have the hurricane windows (German made, Mike).... and am battened down in my absence.

Bring it on.............
 

MiamiDRGuy

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May 19, 2013
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Update 11AM TS Danny

map_tropinfo04_ltst_5nhato_enus_650x366.jpg



The future path of TS Danny:

map_tropprjpath04_ltst_5nhato_enus_650x366.jpg
 
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