2016 Hurricane Season

Celt202

Gold
May 22, 2004
9,099
944
113
Hurricanes follow the predictions except when they don't:

Hurricane Kate was the second-longest tropical cyclone in the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. The eleventh tropical storm, fifth hurricane, and third major hurricane of the season, Kate developed from a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic on September 25.

Its unusual track included four major changes in direction. The storm moved northwestward until a weakness in the subtropical ridge forced it eastward. Kate strengthened to a hurricane, turned sharply westward while moving around a mid-level low, and intensified to a 125 mph (205 km/h) major hurricane on October 4.

Kate turned sharply northward around the periphery of an anticyclone, weakened, and became extratropical after passing to the east of Newfoundland. The extratropical storm persisted for three days until losing its identity near Scandinavia.

Hurricane Kate (2003)
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,893
2,481
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Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Matthew starts the action and it will last at least the next 48hrs, going worse from now on, not better.

do not get "fooled" by the early morning update on the NOAA site, as things changed a lot since then.
it shows Matthew as a weakend Cat3 Storm on 130mphrs with a central pressure of 945mbar.
the Hurricane Hunters been in the storm and their data is now available, it shows a different face.
Matthew strengthened over night.
it is now a 145mphrs/940mbar Cyclone on it's phase of slow intensification.
it is still walking straight North on around 6mphr.
excpected tracking is the same as last night, passing east of Jamaica and very close west of the western tip of the haitian peninsula towards it's 1st landfall in eastern cuba.
by now southern Barahona peninsula should report what can be seen out there right in front of them, and approaching them. it is the NE'ern "Blob".
those atually 2 "blobs" widen the waterload reach of the Storm, i would guess we get a heck of water in the SW on DR side, and along most of our southshores.
the outer band already reach my area here in Punta Cana, and i am located on the eastern most Tip of the eastshores, just a few miles north of Cabo Enga?o.
the waters reach further East than awaited.

this storm will make it's landfall as a strong Cat4 Cyclone, most likely in SE Cuba, but the wide surroundings without a hit will get record waterloads dumped down.
from San Pedro westwards i would urge people to take it easy, stay at home and listen to the updates, for some areas shown "safe" now such might quickly change into a "warning about dangers".
those "blobs" sure carry heavy rain, nobody has any estimate about winds in their.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,893
2,481
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
here is the Water to observe.

Mike

wv-animated.gif
 

caribmike

Gold
Jul 9, 2009
6,808
202
63
The wind starts too now. Lets see how long it takes "them" to use this as their excuse to shut the power down...
 

Marilyn

Bronze
May 7, 2002
728
22
18
I just spoke with friends in Bahoruco (not the province). Bahoruco is a fishing village west of Barahona, my mother's home town by the way. They report heavy rain since yesterday but no wind, the sea looks calm, they are getting ready for tonight looking for higher ground since most live right on the beach or very close to it... just hoping my house doesn't get much damage, it's right on the beach less than 60 meters from the sea
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,893
2,481
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
I just spoke with friends in Bahoruco (not the province). Bahoruco is a fishing village west of Barahona, my mother's home town by the way. They report heavy rain since yesterday but no wind, the sea looks calm, they are getting ready for tonight looking for higher ground since most live right on the beach or very close to it... just hoping my house doesn't get much damage, it's right on the beach less than 60 meters from the sea

Marilyn!!!
less than 60 meters?
illegally built on public Beach?
tell your family to move out.
they are in a fishing village?, so they/their neighbours know about the Sea.
the unusual calm conditions are always the signal to get da cattle in and forget about properties on the beach, move to higher grounds. the Sea will not stay calm.

Mike
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
18,948
514
113
Santiago update: Sun peeking through clouds. Drizzle stopped. Slight to sharp shadows shadows. Weird day.

HB