- Thread starter MikeFisher
- Start date
2018 Hurricane Season
Has the flood water dissipated yet in Santo Domingo? When I return on Sunday I hope my neighborhood isnt in a mess
nearly finishing July and barely anything to type about the Tropical Atlantic this Season so far,
which is of course a good thing.
so just a sum-it-up about what and why and what to expect further thru the 2018 Season.
What we have til now on the Tropical Atlantic:
* cooler than usual Sea Surface Temps
* thicker than average (even for the peak months June/July) Sahran Air Layer(African Dust in the Air)
* nice high Windshear
* stronger than for the time of the year usual Trade Winds, stirring up the Ocean's Surface
Why:
* the High over the North Atlantic, named Azores-Bermuda High, is this time well stronger than usual,
so the winds circulating around it are well stronger than usual, circulating in clockwise rotation around the High,
which means they blow East to West over the Tropical Atlantic(our Highway) stronger than normal.
so those winds(named the Trade Winds, bringing Tropical Waves E-W) blow well stronger as it would be
expected this time of the year, so the stirr up the Ocean(bring cooler waters from the depths),
which keeps the Temps of the Highway's Surface below the usual margins.
* it is a lucky coincedence that the Saharan Dust, which has it's peak times always during June/July,
is this Season also present in higher thickness/amount than average.
What does that mean for conditions for our 2018 Hurricane Season?:
so far to date,
we had near no activity over the Tropical Atlantic, our Highway did not allow any waves/disturbed weather areas to really develop stormy powers.
the only occurance so far been hurricane Beryl, who never had any chance to bring windy dangers to the Caribbean.
what ever managed to start tropical storm activities, been teared apart inmediately by those conditions,
there was no fuel available to keep anything stormy running.
for the future of this Season,
the actual strong Azores-Bermuda High with it's strong circulating winds is expected to stay up for at least the rest of July, maybe a good week longer. once it goes down, leading to calm down the Trade Winds, it will still take 2-3 weeks before the conditions over the Highway would start to reach a point where Tropical Stormy Action could kick in.
So we can count on a start of our Hurricane Peak Season(on average starting mid august),
to be postponed well backwards, at least til end August/maybe end of first week of September.
such shifting of the peak time does not mean we would not get any storms developed this Season,
but the later the "good/favorable" conditions start, the less time will be left
before during Fall the temps cool down again and conditions gets slowly less favorable to develop storms.
the whole conditions could shift to later in the year, but such phenomenon is actually not seen/expected to happen.
so for now i would say that we safed ourselfs 2-3 weeks of "Junkies on the computer searching for Clouds which could become something", to enjoy a hot and fairly dry Summer first, before we have to take a new look on
"What could still come late Summer/early Fall".
sweaty greetings from constant 36C of a European super hot summer
which is of course a good thing.
so just a sum-it-up about what and why and what to expect further thru the 2018 Season.
What we have til now on the Tropical Atlantic:
* cooler than usual Sea Surface Temps
* thicker than average (even for the peak months June/July) Sahran Air Layer(African Dust in the Air)
* nice high Windshear
* stronger than for the time of the year usual Trade Winds, stirring up the Ocean's Surface
Why:
* the High over the North Atlantic, named Azores-Bermuda High, is this time well stronger than usual,
so the winds circulating around it are well stronger than usual, circulating in clockwise rotation around the High,
which means they blow East to West over the Tropical Atlantic(our Highway) stronger than normal.
so those winds(named the Trade Winds, bringing Tropical Waves E-W) blow well stronger as it would be
expected this time of the year, so the stirr up the Ocean(bring cooler waters from the depths),
which keeps the Temps of the Highway's Surface below the usual margins.
* it is a lucky coincedence that the Saharan Dust, which has it's peak times always during June/July,
is this Season also present in higher thickness/amount than average.
What does that mean for conditions for our 2018 Hurricane Season?:
so far to date,
we had near no activity over the Tropical Atlantic, our Highway did not allow any waves/disturbed weather areas to really develop stormy powers.
the only occurance so far been hurricane Beryl, who never had any chance to bring windy dangers to the Caribbean.
what ever managed to start tropical storm activities, been teared apart inmediately by those conditions,
there was no fuel available to keep anything stormy running.
for the future of this Season,
the actual strong Azores-Bermuda High with it's strong circulating winds is expected to stay up for at least the rest of July, maybe a good week longer. once it goes down, leading to calm down the Trade Winds, it will still take 2-3 weeks before the conditions over the Highway would start to reach a point where Tropical Stormy Action could kick in.
So we can count on a start of our Hurricane Peak Season(on average starting mid august),
to be postponed well backwards, at least til end August/maybe end of first week of September.
such shifting of the peak time does not mean we would not get any storms developed this Season,
but the later the "good/favorable" conditions start, the less time will be left
before during Fall the temps cool down again and conditions gets slowly less favorable to develop storms.
the whole conditions could shift to later in the year, but such phenomenon is actually not seen/expected to happen.
so for now i would say that we safed ourselfs 2-3 weeks of "Junkies on the computer searching for Clouds which could become something", to enjoy a hot and fairly dry Summer first, before we have to take a new look on
"What could still come late Summer/early Fall".
sweaty greetings from constant 36C of a European super hot summer
I recall the conditions are currently similar to thr drought of 2016 when we had a horrendously wet late fall...
yeah, weeks and weeks.
a good 5 weeks are already over, 2 more to go.
Tuesday august 7th we will land on the Isle to get some cooling down fresh caribbean breeze.
german summer sun is way too much for us Islanders, lol.
Little by Little they start to agree with the Fisherman.
2018 we will have loads of Sargassum Focking around our beaches til late september.
we will not see any Mayor Hurricane moving in from our East from the Tropical Highway towards the Caribbean.
I doubt that we will see more than two, if any Storm from the Highway side entering the Caribbean Sea on Hurricane strength.
wáter temp over the highway are on all sides well below the usual heath and the warmth does not reach significantly Deep at all.
even in the Caribeban Sea the temps are for this time of the year below their margins, so what ever makes its way "in", will not get the usually top conditions to grow up quickly within short time frames while steering towards Paradise Island from the SE.
the Saharan Air Layer Content, that dry Saharan Sand in the Air, is perfectly thick and moves around in higher amounts than even the Seaweed, as an other nice bothering factor to azzkick any stormy activity from the beginning stages on. some people complain about it and talk about allergies and many bad stuff out of it, focking whiners, I love me some african sand filled air to breath, it keeps me safe while sipping Margaritas on a boat or beach.
where conditions allow to asume to get some action in is the Gulf of Mexico and specially, the 2018 HotZone, the Eastshores of the USA.
the action already been there this 2018 season and i am sure that the resume about 2018 will finally show that very most action happened there, along the US Eastshores and in the Gulf Region.
I say for this year it is a perfectly fine and safe time to have fun sipping Margaritas on our Paradise Island.
the drought period and following floodings(without tropical storm actions involved late fall and Winter) will be the main concern for the DR.
of course there is always a chance that a small Tropical Storm could come up and decide to make it a straight visit, blowing some anyways useless Street signs around etc etc....
but the to be awaited scenarios for the rest of 2018's Season never been so nice smooth calm in OUR favor in all my almost 25 years watching this stuff with great interest.
let it blow, but it will most likely not happen over here.
i almost forgot about an otehr factor in OUR favor,
the Windshear.
those strong counter winds blowing against stormy development, in case a disturbed wether área gets some swing on,
are blowing constantly nice against developments of stroms since early on.
in addition, even that a neutralphase would already be good enough this year, it is very likely that we get light to moderate El Niño conditions up towards the end tail of the season.
if that comes out to happen, we could call it a day before mid october.
the Windshear.
those strong counter winds blowing against stormy development, in case a disturbed wether área gets some swing on,
are blowing constantly nice against developments of stroms since early on.
in addition, even that a neutralphase would already be good enough this year, it is very likely that we get light to moderate El Niño conditions up towards the end tail of the season.
if that comes out to happen, we could call it a day before mid october.
Hey,
we have ACTION on da boring 2018 Highway.
the disturbed weather área out on the far East shows full Tropical Character.
I dont give it chances to become anything significant, not even a name at this point.
but it is a early stage long range Outlook.
this system, as what ever it will be, should enter the Caribbean Sea late Wednesday/Thursday.
forward speed can of course change a lot the next so many days.
we will get it more exact after the weekend.
my actual guess would be a Tropical Wave entering the Caribbean Sea Wednesday night.
we have ACTION on da boring 2018 Highway.
the disturbed weather área out on the far East shows full Tropical Character.
I dont give it chances to become anything significant, not even a name at this point.
but it is a early stage long range Outlook.
this system, as what ever it will be, should enter the Caribbean Sea late Wednesday/Thursday.
forward speed can of course change a lot the next so many days.
we will get it more exact after the weekend.
my actual guess would be a Tropical Wave entering the Caribbean Sea Wednesday night.
lil update, as yesterday's shown Timeline changed.
the disturbance out on the East mid Highway is barely moving forward/stationary
and it is actually 2 disturbed weather áreas there close to each others and hindering actual movement.
as far as activity goes both are fleddered due high windshear,
no conditions out there for any development the next days.
they should come into the caribbean Sea as one Tropical Wave.
estimated time of entry will be later than awaited, as they hinder each others forward movement,
so late friday is my actually set Arrival Time in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.
nothing to fear,
IF we get lucky we may get some rain out of it, but thats a longshot.
by actual conditions the whole wave could get teared apart and disappear, which would be bad, as the caribbean needs exactly those T-Waves to survive, because they are our Transporters for our existencial Water.
the disturbance out on the East mid Highway is barely moving forward/stationary
and it is actually 2 disturbed weather áreas there close to each others and hindering actual movement.
as far as activity goes both are fleddered due high windshear,
no conditions out there for any development the next days.
they should come into the caribbean Sea as one Tropical Wave.
estimated time of entry will be later than awaited, as they hinder each others forward movement,
so late friday is my actually set Arrival Time in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.
nothing to fear,
IF we get lucky we may get some rain out of it, but thats a longshot.
by actual conditions the whole wave could get teared apart and disappear, which would be bad, as the caribbean needs exactly those T-Waves to survive, because they are our Transporters for our existencial Water.
even no Cyclones expected anywhere in our surroundings, time for a short update.
we have nearby/on their way 2 Tropical Waves active which already influence our Island weather and will continue to do so til mid of next week.
1) the small non cyclonic Tropical Wave which hung and rained down over Puerto Rico all day long and brought several inches of rain to the neighbours, with more to come down all night long.
this wave also already brought some unusual winds and a few showers to the East and East Central of the DR today.
late tonight/early morning the Waves is expected to leave Puerto Rico towards the West to bring some significant rainfalls to some áreas on our soil.
now, the rain from this small wave alone would not be some kinda problem to think about, this time of the year we are usually extremely dry and every reasonable watering is welcome.
but with maybe saturated/filled grounds nicely wet from this one, we come to point
2)
the old 2 disturbances out far East on the Tropical Highway, which united to One very large and wet área the last few days.
this disturbance, on the NOAA Maps named Invest 99L, is a low action Tropical wave with Little to no chance to grow into a Storm prior to arrival over the Windward Islands, but it is an immense waterload spread over a very very large área.
If its Waters hit recently saturated grounds the following flooding could be of significant danger.
again, its chances for development into a Tropical Storm is near zero prior to its entry into the Eastern Caribbean Sea
and in addition the actually present and longer lasting very harsh conditions with highest windshear would knock down the Powers of even a good sized Storm coming into the Caribbean from the East,
BUT for mid/late sunday ahead there are high possibilities that its bypass may dump significant wáter down on the Isle.
sure it could stay further south and aside of a few drops along the southshores nothing be felt, but the chances are at this moment high to get early next week some parts of the Island very wet on top of what the small Wave from Puerto Rico may bring tomorrow.
who ever is near the known flooding prone locations should be ready, in case we would get a real waterload.
as far as Storm Action goes we are all fine, nothing in work out there so far.
here a shot of the Upper Atmosphere, it shows how wide 99L is even up on highest levels.
and here the same time shot of the lower atmosphere.
the dark Green stuff is real rain and there is quiet a heck of it visible.
looks like a Dot of the PR Wave may rain down strong already on our central southcoast,
but i have no eyewhitness report about it and the exact positioning of such is even with teh satélite shots not possible.
exact ares on the ground can not be named just by looking on colors on a Sat Image.
we have nearby/on their way 2 Tropical Waves active which already influence our Island weather and will continue to do so til mid of next week.
1) the small non cyclonic Tropical Wave which hung and rained down over Puerto Rico all day long and brought several inches of rain to the neighbours, with more to come down all night long.
this wave also already brought some unusual winds and a few showers to the East and East Central of the DR today.
late tonight/early morning the Waves is expected to leave Puerto Rico towards the West to bring some significant rainfalls to some áreas on our soil.
now, the rain from this small wave alone would not be some kinda problem to think about, this time of the year we are usually extremely dry and every reasonable watering is welcome.
but with maybe saturated/filled grounds nicely wet from this one, we come to point
2)
the old 2 disturbances out far East on the Tropical Highway, which united to One very large and wet área the last few days.
this disturbance, on the NOAA Maps named Invest 99L, is a low action Tropical wave with Little to no chance to grow into a Storm prior to arrival over the Windward Islands, but it is an immense waterload spread over a very very large área.
If its Waters hit recently saturated grounds the following flooding could be of significant danger.
again, its chances for development into a Tropical Storm is near zero prior to its entry into the Eastern Caribbean Sea
and in addition the actually present and longer lasting very harsh conditions with highest windshear would knock down the Powers of even a good sized Storm coming into the Caribbean from the East,
BUT for mid/late sunday ahead there are high possibilities that its bypass may dump significant wáter down on the Isle.
sure it could stay further south and aside of a few drops along the southshores nothing be felt, but the chances are at this moment high to get early next week some parts of the Island very wet on top of what the small Wave from Puerto Rico may bring tomorrow.
who ever is near the known flooding prone locations should be ready, in case we would get a real waterload.
as far as Storm Action goes we are all fine, nothing in work out there so far.
here a shot of the Upper Atmosphere, it shows how wide 99L is even up on highest levels.
and here the same time shot of the lower atmosphere.
the dark Green stuff is real rain and there is quiet a heck of it visible.
looks like a Dot of the PR Wave may rain down strong already on our central southcoast,
but i have no eyewhitness report about it and the exact positioning of such is even with teh satélite shots not possible.
exact ares on the ground can not be named just by looking on colors on a Sat Image.
weeeeekend in Paradise,
so let's have a look on what our Highway has to offer.
the Waves are there, as usual, but as promised from months ago the conditions are harsh for Storm Formations this season and do not allow any significant development on our Tropical Highway so far.
we have this sunny sunday morning 3 aktive Waves on the Map.
1)
the wide Wave which made it over the Windward Islands.
it got fleddered down to non violent/non significant Powers by our nicely working hard counter winds over the Easter Caribbean Sea.
the Wave is actually over the East Central/SE'ern Caribbean Sea, lost its wide spread Powers and wanders Westward through the southern/Central Caribbean Sea for the next few days.
Nothing to think about for us Islanders.
under average Highway Conditions this one would have been at least a Tropicl Storm already over the Windward Islands.
2)
a small and weak appearing Wave on mid Highway around 40'E.
it is still very far out, but even that far ahead of time i give it barely a chance that anything of it could reach the Eastern Island Belt.
by this time nothing to keep an eye on.
3)
a very wide and active strong Tropical Wave, that left the West African Continent last night.
this one would usually be a safe bet on development into a Big One.
by this time, it just hit wáter a few hours ago, no circulation or similar action visible of course.
it's future for the next 7 days, while wandering Westward over the Tropical Highway, "could" show days of organizing structures, even reaching some Powers, but I still see the Road Trip over the Highway as waaay too bumpy to get any danger on the doorstep.
it will most likely come up us a Invest on the NOAA Outlook during this week,
but will get cut back to handsome size and Powers before reaching the Western End of the Track.
the actually low windshear shown over the Eastern Caribbean Sea and East of the Island Belt is just a short lived phenomenon, up due the walk through of Wave 1 into the Caribeban Sea.
this protection shield, together with a good thickness of dry air (SAL) will be back up before mid week,
well on time before Wave 3 could reach the área.
Wave 2 is not strong nor moistured enough to cut a path through it.
All looks perfectly fine to continue safe towards end august.
have a great sunday y'all
so let's have a look on what our Highway has to offer.
the Waves are there, as usual, but as promised from months ago the conditions are harsh for Storm Formations this season and do not allow any significant development on our Tropical Highway so far.
we have this sunny sunday morning 3 aktive Waves on the Map.
1)
the wide Wave which made it over the Windward Islands.
it got fleddered down to non violent/non significant Powers by our nicely working hard counter winds over the Easter Caribbean Sea.
the Wave is actually over the East Central/SE'ern Caribbean Sea, lost its wide spread Powers and wanders Westward through the southern/Central Caribbean Sea for the next few days.
Nothing to think about for us Islanders.
under average Highway Conditions this one would have been at least a Tropicl Storm already over the Windward Islands.
2)
a small and weak appearing Wave on mid Highway around 40'E.
it is still very far out, but even that far ahead of time i give it barely a chance that anything of it could reach the Eastern Island Belt.
by this time nothing to keep an eye on.
3)
a very wide and active strong Tropical Wave, that left the West African Continent last night.
this one would usually be a safe bet on development into a Big One.
by this time, it just hit wáter a few hours ago, no circulation or similar action visible of course.
it's future for the next 7 days, while wandering Westward over the Tropical Highway, "could" show days of organizing structures, even reaching some Powers, but I still see the Road Trip over the Highway as waaay too bumpy to get any danger on the doorstep.
it will most likely come up us a Invest on the NOAA Outlook during this week,
but will get cut back to handsome size and Powers before reaching the Western End of the Track.
the actually low windshear shown over the Eastern Caribbean Sea and East of the Island Belt is just a short lived phenomenon, up due the walk through of Wave 1 into the Caribeban Sea.
this protection shield, together with a good thickness of dry air (SAL) will be back up before mid week,
well on time before Wave 3 could reach the área.
Wave 2 is not strong nor moistured enough to cut a path through it.
All looks perfectly fine to continue safe towards end august.
have a great sunday y'all
time for an update on our tropical highway.
the Tropical Waves mentioned in the update from the 19th, moved all as awaited, fleddered.
right now we have over the western Sahara a quiet active disturbance moving on 20mphr westward.
this wide área should hit our Tropical Highway's far Eastern end tomorrow evening/night.
a Disturbance of such size and such high activity already while still far away from wáter, has always a high Hurricane Potential, it is the Base the Big Ones are made of.
even for such strong potential, the conditions on the first 1/3rd over the Highway are too harsh to await development,
so all should stay fairly quiet for the rest of this week.
but after the next weekend, the actual long range Outlook(this can significantly change from now til monday/tuesday)
shows the mid Highway on low windshear, less dry air in mid atmosphere and the Sea Surface on temperaturas on the Edge to support development.
warm Waters do not reach down into Deep depths, but a quick moving system running westward 'hoo on significantly over 10mphr, would not stirr up any bothering cooler Waters from the depth, it would smoothly slide over the top and fuel itself just from the warm enough temps of the Oceans Surface.
such Disturbance under last year's conditions would sure had CNN and Co running wild with horror stories about a Storm of the Century before it even starts to form/hits wáter.
as this one needs most likely more than a week from now before closing in to the Eastern Island Belt,
it is far too early to look on forecasts of the conditions on the last 1000 miles towards the Caribbean.
by this weekend we can have a first long range Outlook on final stage conditions and anyways on the then real live conditions over the mid distance over the Highway, so we will know if a real storm forms up mid highway and in case it does, about the conditions on the last third of the long journey, to start that famous guessing about what and when and where, all that Fun that i am missing(not) this year so far.
as for steering directions, that Tropical Wave will be on a straight Westward Tracking on the southern lane, the 10th'N.
a forming Storm mid highway, slightly above the 10thN, if growing quick enough reaching high up into the Atmosphere, would catch the upper steering winds for a WNW'ern tracking alerting CNN and alikes, because pointing towards the middle of the Island Belt with all those further speculations open.
we will give it a few days and then take a look what possibilities are out there.
I say to heck with storms in 2018, I can easily live with a Season which has nothing to report about.
cheers
the Tropical Waves mentioned in the update from the 19th, moved all as awaited, fleddered.
right now we have over the western Sahara a quiet active disturbance moving on 20mphr westward.
this wide área should hit our Tropical Highway's far Eastern end tomorrow evening/night.
a Disturbance of such size and such high activity already while still far away from wáter, has always a high Hurricane Potential, it is the Base the Big Ones are made of.
even for such strong potential, the conditions on the first 1/3rd over the Highway are too harsh to await development,
so all should stay fairly quiet for the rest of this week.
but after the next weekend, the actual long range Outlook(this can significantly change from now til monday/tuesday)
shows the mid Highway on low windshear, less dry air in mid atmosphere and the Sea Surface on temperaturas on the Edge to support development.
warm Waters do not reach down into Deep depths, but a quick moving system running westward 'hoo on significantly over 10mphr, would not stirr up any bothering cooler Waters from the depth, it would smoothly slide over the top and fuel itself just from the warm enough temps of the Oceans Surface.
such Disturbance under last year's conditions would sure had CNN and Co running wild with horror stories about a Storm of the Century before it even starts to form/hits wáter.
as this one needs most likely more than a week from now before closing in to the Eastern Island Belt,
it is far too early to look on forecasts of the conditions on the last 1000 miles towards the Caribbean.
by this weekend we can have a first long range Outlook on final stage conditions and anyways on the then real live conditions over the mid distance over the Highway, so we will know if a real storm forms up mid highway and in case it does, about the conditions on the last third of the long journey, to start that famous guessing about what and when and where, all that Fun that i am missing(not) this year so far.
as for steering directions, that Tropical Wave will be on a straight Westward Tracking on the southern lane, the 10th'N.
a forming Storm mid highway, slightly above the 10thN, if growing quick enough reaching high up into the Atmosphere, would catch the upper steering winds for a WNW'ern tracking alerting CNN and alikes, because pointing towards the middle of the Island Belt with all those further speculations open.
we will give it a few days and then take a look what possibilities are out there.
I say to heck with storms in 2018, I can easily live with a Season which has nothing to report about.
cheers
Seems to be weakening and looks like another no-show, luckily.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png
it is a strong active system over Land.
as i said yesterday, conditions on the far East are violent against storms, so it will not show development for the first week/first 5 days, but we have to wait what conditions will be present mid Highway next week when it wanders alreay on half way around the 40thW.
here is a shot from this afternoon, it shows the upper /higher level of the Atmosphere.
on the far right hand side you can see what very wide and strong Powers reach alreay now, still far over the african Mainland, high up into the Atmosphere.
as i said yesterday, conditions on the far East are violent against storms, so it will not show development for the first week/first 5 days, but we have to wait what conditions will be present mid Highway next week when it wanders alreay on half way around the 40thW.
here is a shot from this afternoon, it shows the upper /higher level of the Atmosphere.
on the far right hand side you can see what very wide and strong Powers reach alreay now, still far over the african Mainland, high up into the Atmosphere.
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they seem to come in a weekly cycle this year.
last week's big active Tropical Wave went to heck right away.
looks very similar for this week's one, expected to hit our Tropical Highway Thursday Night.
what ever comes out of it, due hit location for the pavement, such Storm would run WWNW and clearly miss the Islands far out on their NE, so in case something develops til after the weekend, it would be more of a concern for the US East Shores, nothing for the Caribbean Islands.
what is still not shown on the NOAA 5 days Outlook, is what can be expected due the conditions Outlook of the European Models, a formation brewing up just a few hundred Miles East of Florida/North of the Central Bahamas.
this one i give the much higher chances to become a Storm, Conditions on the long range are not that bad up there for late weekend/early next week.
for our own Soil there is nothing in the make and nothing expected to come up for a week now/into September.
as far as the uncertain long range outlooks of conditions go, I would say we are sure safe til mid September at least.
then conditions between the 10th and 15thN will start to be less hostile for developments,
so we can expect that conditions for development "could" be favorable after the 3rd september week/Sept 22nd ahead.
this is extraordinarily late in the Season, super Good for us Islanders.
if we do not get then right away hyperactive strong waves on the highway, like the one last week and the one awaited for tomorrow night, then the Big Ones will have missed this Season completely.
as the Highway maintains this year well below it's average Sea Surface Temperatures, it will also cool down again quicker tan usual and run below the treshhold earlier.
my longshot is that we will be safe if we do not get something unexpected up til end of the 1st week of October.
I can not imagine something big forming after that date this year.
so our danger window should run Sept 22nd til Oct 7th, more or less of course, a good 2 weeks max.
let's enjoy Caribbean Summer, it may never be as calm again
last week's big active Tropical Wave went to heck right away.
looks very similar for this week's one, expected to hit our Tropical Highway Thursday Night.
what ever comes out of it, due hit location for the pavement, such Storm would run WWNW and clearly miss the Islands far out on their NE, so in case something develops til after the weekend, it would be more of a concern for the US East Shores, nothing for the Caribbean Islands.
what is still not shown on the NOAA 5 days Outlook, is what can be expected due the conditions Outlook of the European Models, a formation brewing up just a few hundred Miles East of Florida/North of the Central Bahamas.
this one i give the much higher chances to become a Storm, Conditions on the long range are not that bad up there for late weekend/early next week.
for our own Soil there is nothing in the make and nothing expected to come up for a week now/into September.
as far as the uncertain long range outlooks of conditions go, I would say we are sure safe til mid September at least.
then conditions between the 10th and 15thN will start to be less hostile for developments,
so we can expect that conditions for development "could" be favorable after the 3rd september week/Sept 22nd ahead.
this is extraordinarily late in the Season, super Good for us Islanders.
if we do not get then right away hyperactive strong waves on the highway, like the one last week and the one awaited for tomorrow night, then the Big Ones will have missed this Season completely.
as the Highway maintains this year well below it's average Sea Surface Temperatures, it will also cool down again quicker tan usual and run below the treshhold earlier.
my longshot is that we will be safe if we do not get something unexpected up til end of the 1st week of October.
I can not imagine something big forming after that date this year.
so our danger window should run Sept 22nd til Oct 7th, more or less of course, a good 2 weeks max.
let's enjoy Caribbean Summer, it may never be as calm again