2022 Hurricane Season

Olly

Bronze
Mar 12, 2007
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Hurricane forcast for 2022

Colarado State University are predicting an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2022, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are near their long-term averages, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than their long-term averages. The warmer Caribbean and eastern part of the subtropical Atlantic also favor an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Extended range Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast for 2022

Released April 7, 2022
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1991–2020 Climatological Average Forecast for 2022
in parentheses)
Named Storms (14.4)* 19
Named Storm Days (69.4) 90
Hurricanes (7.2) 9
Hurricane Days (27.0) 35
Major Hurricanes (3.2) 4
Major Hurricane Days (7.4) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (123) 160
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (135%) 170
* Numbers in ( ) represent averages based on 1991–2020 data.

Landfalling probability included in report​

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:

  • 71% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%)
  • 47% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%)
  • 46% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%)
  • 60% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%)
source https://engr.source.colostate.edu/csu-researchers-predicting-active-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/

Olly and the Team.
 

NanSanPedro

Nickel with tin plating
Apr 12, 2019
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Thanks for the reminder. This is the time to stock up on non-perishables.

Gotta hoard that toilet paper:ROFLMAO:
 

Olly

Bronze
Mar 12, 2007
1,825
51
48

Update on the Probabilities of Hurricane Impact on the Dominican Republic.​

CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities​

We are debuting a new methodology for calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America. We have used NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website and selected all named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of each landmass from 1880-2020. This approach allows for tropical cyclones that may have tracked through an immediately adjacent region to be counted for all regions that were in close proximity to the location of the storm.
For the Dominican Republic :
2022 Forecast Probability of Named Storm impact 77%
2022 Forecast Probability of Hurricane impact 52%
2022 Forecast Probability of Major Hurricane impact 27%

Source : https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html

All these probabilities are significantly higher than the average.

Take precuations and be prepared.

Olly and the Team.
 
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Olly

Bronze
Mar 12, 2007
1,825
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48
THanks Mountainannie for reminding us of the 2022 Huricane Names . Here they are :
*******************************************************************

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Martin
Nicole
Owen
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

**************************************************************


OLlie and the team