- Thread starter Olly
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2022 Hurricane Season
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our Disturbance stayed down South and should be over the Southern Windward Islands somewhere early Wednesday morning.
It is a big area of heavy weather, but this far south no big spin, if any, will kick in before reaching the Caribbean Sea.
So it will not do a quick form-up of a Hurricane or such and it will not steer anywhere Northwards near our Island.
This one can become a TD around the time when over the Windward Islands and wil then continue the same Track deep down south through the southern caribbean sea along the Southamerican Northshores.
To push up some unfavorabke weather towards the are of Saona Island, to mess with my excursions tehre, is a possibility,
but other than i see not danger for the Island from this one.
The Central and Western Caribbean Sea provide actually quiet very favorable conditions for storm development,
so on it's further path if it keeps enough distance to the SA Mainland, it could grow into a nasty TS, but nothing of that anywhere near us.
And we have a new Disturbance on the radar, running already mid Highway by now.
While it does at this time not show big powers nor organization, it is the one we have to watch,
because it's birthplace is typical for the ones reaching the Leeward Islands and then going towards PR or the DR-South.
So far there are no indications that it will become anything significant to watch, but the direction oblige's to keep an eye on it.
It is a big area of heavy weather, but this far south no big spin, if any, will kick in before reaching the Caribbean Sea.
So it will not do a quick form-up of a Hurricane or such and it will not steer anywhere Northwards near our Island.
This one can become a TD around the time when over the Windward Islands and wil then continue the same Track deep down south through the southern caribbean sea along the Southamerican Northshores.
To push up some unfavorabke weather towards the are of Saona Island, to mess with my excursions tehre, is a possibility,
but other than i see not danger for the Island from this one.
The Central and Western Caribbean Sea provide actually quiet very favorable conditions for storm development,
so on it's further path if it keeps enough distance to the SA Mainland, it could grow into a nasty TS, but nothing of that anywhere near us.
And we have a new Disturbance on the radar, running already mid Highway by now.
While it does at this time not show big powers nor organization, it is the one we have to watch,
because it's birthplace is typical for the ones reaching the Leeward Islands and then going towards PR or the DR-South.
So far there are no indications that it will become anything significant to watch, but the direction oblige's to keep an eye on it.
Very fast forward speed, slightly rising central pressure and a straight Westward Tracking right in front of the Southamerican North Shores,
all that means that TD2 will not become any trouble for our home soil.
As for the Disturbance mid Highway, which is tracking towards our area,
it is very unlikely to see any development and If, then it would be slow and weak.
It should reach the Central Windward Islands somewhere Saturday morning.
Then in the Eastern Caribbean Sea conditions will at that time not favor any storm development,
so with highest %% we can see that finally as a no show of nothing.
Hey,
30C Sunny Skies over SWern Germany, this coming weekend will be a full Pool and Shopping Weekend.
Life is darn good so far.
Cheers!!!
all that means that TD2 will not become any trouble for our home soil.
As for the Disturbance mid Highway, which is tracking towards our area,
it is very unlikely to see any development and If, then it would be slow and weak.
It should reach the Central Windward Islands somewhere Saturday morning.
Then in the Eastern Caribbean Sea conditions will at that time not favor any storm development,
so with highest %% we can see that finally as a no show of nothing.
Hey,
30C Sunny Skies over SWern Germany, this coming weekend will be a full Pool and Shopping Weekend.
Life is darn good so far.
Cheers!!!
TD2 goes as expected, scratching along the SouthAmerican North Shores Westward.
It already is located S of the SEern Haitian Soil/Left our " Area".
It could be that some clouds will be felt along the S of DR, but that's hard to calculate from here, without a real eyesight up into the skies.
The Disturbance East of the Windward Islands wil def not become any danger.
Development of that one is impossible and the awaited shifting of the strongWindshear southwards to cover the Eastern Caribbean Sea already happened last night, so conditions over the Estern Caribbeaan Sea will not allow anything to develop for the coming weekend.
All looks fine, no danger anywhere near the Isle expected/to be seen.
Cheers from the other side of the big bathtub
It already is located S of the SEern Haitian Soil/Left our " Area".
It could be that some clouds will be felt along the S of DR, but that's hard to calculate from here, without a real eyesight up into the skies.
The Disturbance East of the Windward Islands wil def not become any danger.
Development of that one is impossible and the awaited shifting of the strongWindshear southwards to cover the Eastern Caribbean Sea already happened last night, so conditions over the Estern Caribbeaan Sea will not allow anything to develop for the coming weekend.
All looks fine, no danger anywhere near the Isle expected/to be seen.
Cheers from the other side of the big bathtub
Have a bratwurst Mike !!!
Thx for your work on our behalf
Thx for your work on our behalf
Our local NJ weatherman posted this today, thought it was interesting about the Sahara dust and its effect on hurricanes
SAHARAN DUST FOR THE WIN
We have been VERY lucky this hurricane season so far with only 3 named storms in the Atlantic Basin and ZERO impacts to our region... below normal, but that's a below normal I'll take! Dust coming off west coast of Africa is suppressing development and could stay in place for the next week or so. Fingers crossed since I have a cruise coming up LOL.
The concern is when this shuts off...and it's bound to...we will see activity come out of the woodwork. How long can we hold it off though? That's the question.
SAHARAN DUST FOR THE WIN
We have been VERY lucky this hurricane season so far with only 3 named storms in the Atlantic Basin and ZERO impacts to our region... below normal, but that's a below normal I'll take! Dust coming off west coast of Africa is suppressing development and could stay in place for the next week or so. Fingers crossed since I have a cruise coming up LOL.
The concern is when this shuts off...and it's bound to...we will see activity come out of the woodwork. How long can we hold it off though? That's the question.
Yes,
Our Highway is nice covered with thick layers of SAL(the Saharan Dust).
BUT,
we are very early in the season, it will not last forever And dry airlayers alone do not hinder storms to build and grow, it just slows development down to a certain degree and even shuts down any development for smaller systems.
A big System could develop and grow under such conditions, less quick and less powerful as it would without the dry air, but still a good sized/powered cyclone could form under actual conditions.
While we have the dry air protection up nicely over the tropical highway, we have ZERO bothering wind shear there.
At least we have right now nice protective high windshear over the whole caribbean sea, around all sides of DR and up to a few hundred miles out East of the Lesser Antilles, so what ever would come through the dry air now, would get an other hard hit by wind shear wen reaching the caribbean sea.
All those conditions are constantly moving/shifting/changing, so nothing today is a factor for next weekend, next week or next month.
It has to be watched all the time to see the important Tendencies of the movement out there.
We are 5 weeks away from the Peak Point for storm dangers, which is on average September 10th.
Closer to that date we will see what conditions are present to let something start or to keep it down on a lower danger level.
So far we are for our area super fine, well " safer" than most past years at the same Date.
Just in case, Always keep the beer freezers stocked for any emergencies and never let them become old/expired, lol
Our Highway is nice covered with thick layers of SAL(the Saharan Dust).
BUT,
we are very early in the season, it will not last forever And dry airlayers alone do not hinder storms to build and grow, it just slows development down to a certain degree and even shuts down any development for smaller systems.
A big System could develop and grow under such conditions, less quick and less powerful as it would without the dry air, but still a good sized/powered cyclone could form under actual conditions.
While we have the dry air protection up nicely over the tropical highway, we have ZERO bothering wind shear there.
At least we have right now nice protective high windshear over the whole caribbean sea, around all sides of DR and up to a few hundred miles out East of the Lesser Antilles, so what ever would come through the dry air now, would get an other hard hit by wind shear wen reaching the caribbean sea.
All those conditions are constantly moving/shifting/changing, so nothing today is a factor for next weekend, next week or next month.
It has to be watched all the time to see the important Tendencies of the movement out there.
We are 5 weeks away from the Peak Point for storm dangers, which is on average September 10th.
Closer to that date we will see what conditions are present to let something start or to keep it down on a lower danger level.
So far we are for our area super fine, well " safer" than most past years at the same Date.
Just in case, Always keep the beer freezers stocked for any emergencies and never let them become old/expired, lol
so by around Sunday Noon a active Tropical Wave will hit Atlantic Waters at the Easter End of the Highway.
Conditions look only good for the first couple days, nothing big awaited out of it.
It should become a first " Cleaner", means it sucks up dry air and break's down wind shear, paving the path for close behind others.
Cheers on a hot pool weekend.
Time to hit the home gym now, lol.
Conditions look only good for the first couple days, nothing big awaited out of it.
It should become a first " Cleaner", means it sucks up dry air and break's down wind shear, paving the path for close behind others.
Cheers on a hot pool weekend.
Time to hit the home gym now, lol.
As of 09:00 tropical wave has 40% chance of any development. Predicted course is moving north, with no threat.
it just hit Atlantic waters this morning, so it had no time to show anything, yet.
in 4-5 days we will see what kind of swing it has and which direction it is moving to, which depends on where it's center then is really placed.
By a long shot estimate of pinning a center now, i would say it will pass the Islands by far out North, a No Show no atter what develops.
Conditions out there far East are not very favorable for development, it will be a Cleaner sucking up dry air to pave the road for following systems.
At this moment the final 1000 miles East of the Lesser Antilles are under harsh windshear, which would not allow any storm to survive,
but those conditions can, of course, look very different in a week from now.
So far we have nothing to fear nor to look on for the week to come.
Just the usual heat to fight with cold drinks and our noses to protect by high powered sunblocker.
This sunday morning we had here on the East a few hours of nice thunder/lightning and rain,
so all on my Ranch is nice watered, green, flourishing.
Island Country Life is Gooood
Cheers
in 4-5 days we will see what kind of swing it has and which direction it is moving to, which depends on where it's center then is really placed.
By a long shot estimate of pinning a center now, i would say it will pass the Islands by far out North, a No Show no atter what develops.
Conditions out there far East are not very favorable for development, it will be a Cleaner sucking up dry air to pave the road for following systems.
At this moment the final 1000 miles East of the Lesser Antilles are under harsh windshear, which would not allow any storm to survive,
but those conditions can, of course, look very different in a week from now.
So far we have nothing to fear nor to look on for the week to come.
Just the usual heat to fight with cold drinks and our noses to protect by high powered sunblocker.
This sunday morning we had here on the East a few hours of nice thunder/lightning and rain,
so all on my Ranch is nice watered, green, flourishing.
Island Country Life is Gooood
Cheers
Has anyone noticed this is the coolest summer in the Caribbean?
I have lived in the Caribbean since 1999 and don't recall such a cool May - August.
Might this affect the storms forming as they approach?
I have lived in the Caribbean since 1999 and don't recall such a cool May - August.
Might this affect the storms forming as they approach?
And I've thought I am the only one who thinks it is "colder" than usual...
We've had a few hot days but not too many. A lot more rain here in the south than last summer as I recall.
Another thing I noticed is that I'm getting up in the middle of the night to turn off the fan because I wake up cold. I never did that before in the summer.
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