H-Season outlooks 2010

alexdr

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Aug 19, 2010
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Puerto Plata-Fri. 7a.m. Temp. 74 dgrees, Pool temp. 77 degrees. Dark gray overcast skies once again. Winds are calm. Breaks in the cloud cover, some sun, late yesterday afternoon. However, some late night and early a.m. rain were to follow. This makes 18 of the last 20 days it has rained at some point day or evening in Puerto Plata! When will it end?
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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on the East we caught a 15 minutes soft sprinkle which stopped right now for the moment, but the Grey Skies here promise more to come for Today, I don't epect a Sunny Day here.
Wind is on it's usual near 10 Knots, Ocean on it's usual November Waves.

Wow, 18 out of the last 20 Days Rain in POP?
that sounds worse than any snowy German Winter.
You don't count 10-20 minutes Showers during the Day as a Rainy Day, don't ya Alex?
in case You do, then "It will Stop" when the Winter is over, somewhere mid/end February 2011, because it is the usual Winter Weather.
Your coldest Point of Nighttime Temp will in some weeks even be some more Degrees below Your mentioned 74F.

Mike
 

Anastacio

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Feb 22, 2010
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Well we got the duvet out last night again. Went down town to see the mini promo and were frozen (exaggerated, I'm from the scottish Borders, we know cold). Hot again this morning, weird morning, no traffic on the road, is it a holiday today?
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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would not know about a Holiday,
but it's Friday, that means it is Weekend since a Day or 2,
People are on Da Beach, not driving to work, lolol.

We had the Sun out here today for some short occurances, mostly Cloudy,
the Wind came down a lot during the day.

nd I just Realize what I forgot to Mention this Morning:

two_atl.gif



Invest 94L,
forecasted by the Models sonce a good Week accurately Pops Up on the Screens and also at the awaited Location, get's Scary when they are that accurate so Far in Advance.

The Disturbance has Quiet High Chances to form into a Tropical depression late Weekend/after the Weekend and may become our 20th Named Storm of the Season, TS "Virginie", Yes, a GAL!
the System actually barely moves, it is drifting slowly towards the Wes/WWNW, Steering Currents are Weak, so it should not move out of it's Location quick.
Location is the Southern Caribbean Sea.

We have nothing else to watch, so let's watch.

cheers
Mike
 

alexdr

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Aug 19, 2010
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In reply to Mike Fisher : No, I don't consider it a rainy day if it's only a light 10 - 20 min. shower. It also has been sunny many late mornings and early afternoons but usually at night (after 7 pm.), and early mornings ( before 7 am.), there are steady prolonged showers or intermittent heavy downpours. That, I consider, a day that it rained. On the other hand, from Oct. 2 thru Oct. 23, there were only 2 rainy days, with 2 other days with light passing showers. Waiting for those type of days to return!
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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o.k.,
the Dusk til Dawn Showers we have here on the East the same,
during Spring/Summer they don't last long on the East, all the way between 5-30 minutes, can be several per Night, the hotter a period lately been the more of those Nightshowers.
now during wintertime it is also here not unusual to have periods of 1 week and sometimes more when it rains for even more than 30 minutes at a Time during the Nights at 4-5 days out of a 8-10 Days Period.

Today the East stayed Dry, very dark cloudy the whole morning, around Noon the sun had a Win, but not for very long, mostly we've been cloudy, dark clouds.
I would not be surprised If we get a good watering tonight.

Mike
 

alexdr

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Aug 19, 2010
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Puerto Plata-9am. Sat. Temp. 81 degrees, pool temp. 78 degrees. No rain here last night or early this morning. Nice sunny day with scattered clouds and a light breeze. My daughter left for New Jersey on Thur. afternoon and it has not rained since. Go figure!
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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great to hear the weather in PoP is improving, too.
here on the east we are Sunny since early morning, no Rain, zero Wind, the Ocean came down a lot, too.
the wind started to go smoother during yesterday afternoon, right now it's Dead Calm.
Invest 94L is developing and should become a Tropical Depression soon, no later than Monday.
it is drifting Northwestwards and will not bother Our Island, the System has good chances to become TS "Virginie" somewhere after Mid Week, more Rain for the Bathered Central American Countries and the Yucatan Peninsula, Drownings/Floodings in that Region been very devastating this Season and killed many People.

for Our Island all looks clear Stormwise, even early in November it show's as we may have finished the Hurricane Season.
it was a very Active Season for the Atlantic Basin/Caribbean Sea and the stats show a "Trend" not towards more active but longer lasting Seasons. the last Years more often we get the 1st TS of the Year more early and have late Season Storms including Hurricanes in November and TD/TS even in December.
the Season Extensions are not much explored Grounds, many books and articles out there trying to give an explanation about "Why".
it is a complex Figure, countless occurances influencing each others at very different Locations of the Globe to finally Produce/Provide the Conditions for Storm Development here around our own Homearea, such as the Conditions in Pacific Waters leading to El Ni?o or La Ni?a, the 2010 Desastreous Rains far East from Caribbean Waters just as simple Things happening many Thousand Miles away from here, some exactly on the other side of the Globus, but bring a direct Influence on Our Weather a few Months later as a Result.

it's weekend Guys
nothing bad out there for our Island
let's Hit Da Beach and have some Fun

Mike
 

alexdr

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Aug 19, 2010
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Puerto Plata - 7am. Sun. Air Temp. 77 degrees, Pool Water 78 degrees. Became mostly overcast yesterday afternoon and remains that way into this morning. However, no rain so far. Somewhat unusual yesterday were the very large, angry waves in the ocean on the malecon. Some surfers were contemplating entering, but thought better not to. No breeze to speak of today, and it looks as if the cloud cover will continue. No problem though, as watching pro football will consume my time today!
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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East Coast Today,
pure Sunshine from early on,
the Dark Cloudcover from yesterday is gone, very few light Clouds in vicinity,
Wind is very low, Ocean is far below it's Time of the Year Average.
for Beach Lovers the perfect weather for a Day in the Sand and Water.

nothing New on 94L,
Development is slow but visible,
no surface Circulation, yest,
Steering Currents are weak and forecasted to stay weak, so it's drifting slowly WWNW towards Honduras where it should get over Land by Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning, it should be a Tropical depression by then, to get a "Name" I would guess the System would need at least til Wednesday or Thursday over the Warm Caribbean Water, it should be on Land before that occurs and not Develop into a TS.

Time for a school Visit at the Hojo de Friusa, and then a afternoon for some Fishy late Lunch on Macao Beach.

have a great Sunday everyone
Mike
 

alexdr

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Aug 19, 2010
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Puerto Plata - 7am. Mon. Temp. 76 degrees, pool water 77 degrees. A lot of scattered clouds looming in the area, could have a passing shower but, a sunny day, I think will prevail. Not much of a breeze to speak of. Yesterday, ocean waters continued a bit on the rough side.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Cabeza de Toro today,
Full Sunny, no bothering clouds around,
Temps I would guess on 28C, but just a guess by feeling, I don't mesure that,
Zero Wind,
Beaches are extremely Calm, much calmer than usual for mid November,
even offshore Sea is very Calm Today.

let's have a great Beach Week

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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even not effecting Our Terrain, but to complete about the only Disturbance shown on the Maps since a few Days,
Invest 94L had during the weekend very weak Thunderstorm Activity which increased during this morning, but is still on the weak side.
Low Level Circulation show's up now, that may get better defined during today,
Windshear is still in the same Midrange and waters Hot, that would allow Development, but there's plenty of Dry Air around bothering such.
it may become a TD before a Landfall somewhere Honduras/Nicaragua,
but chances for the System to become TS Virginie Decreased a lot,
I don't think we will see the 20th named Storm of the Season there.
for Our Own Island nothing bad is in Vicinity.
Mike
 

alexdr

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Aug 19, 2010
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Puerto Plata - 6:45 am. Tues. Temp. 76 degrees, pool temp. 78 degrees. Clear blue skies overhead with only patches of clouds over the ocean sunrise. No breeze. Looks like the start of a beautiful day.
 

alexdr

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Aug 19, 2010
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Puerto Plata - 8 am. Wed. Temp. 78 degrees, pool water 79 degrees. Beautiful, clear blue skies today. Slightest of a breeze.
 

alexdr

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Aug 19, 2010
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Puerto Plata - 7am. Thur. Temp. 76 degrees, pool water 79 degrees. There was an overnight or early am. shower. This morning scattered cloud cover. As the day goes on, blue skies will prevail, I'm sure. Only a slight breeze.