How many people do you think are really positive for Covid19 in the DR?

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Cdn_Gringo

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Apr 29, 2014
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CV19 Testing in the DR - Clear as Mud?

The prerecorded Presidential addressed that was broadcast to the country last Friday seemed to be a bit light on new information regarding the progression of CV19 in this country and the current thinking of the longer term plans to contain the spread of this virus and deal with economic and social fallout that is simmering in the background.

There was however a snippet of new information that I missed while listening to the address in Spanish. It was not until later when reading a suitably garbled English translation that this new information came to my attention. It wasn't until the next day that I became confused and attempted to figure things out.

The Presidential address made reference to far more completed CV19 tests that had previously been announced by the Ministry of Health. For at least a month and perhaps for longer than that, there has been two testing paths being used in this country. The standard PCR tests that were being referenced in the briefings and in the media and an apparently clandestine approach making use of what are conveniently known as Quick Tests. The President made reference to some 40,000+ quick tests that have been administered. Where did they come from, how do they work, are they reliable?

The standard PCR tests are generally considered to produce reliable test results provided that the sample gathering technique is administered properly and the resulting test kits are analyzed properly and not cross contaminated. The analysis landscape for the quick tests is much different. The test kit itself returns the result in as little as 30 minutes, an hour or a little longer depending on the design of the test kit. These tests are being produced by a myriad of companies and all are not equal in sampling, analysis and result.

I was not able to find much Govt information provided for these quick tests other than several references to batches of test kits being procured from different sources at different times. About 20,000 quick test kits where donated by a political party some weeks ago and there have been a few references to orders for these quick tests placed by the Govt itself. Details are scant. Most of these tests, at least the discounted ones seem to be manufactured in China. Other countries produce them as well, Germany and Taiwan for example.

Standard procedure requires each new batch of quick tests received to be tested to ensure functionality and accuracy. Unlike the PCR (DNA) tests which are good to go, due the varying number of manufacturers methodologies and variations in the kits themselves, one cannot assume accuracy and functionality across all manufactures and even consistency from lot to lot by the same manufacturer. I was only able to find one public reference to verifying quick tests in this country and that was in regards to the batch of donated kits from the opposition political party. There is no mention of the results of that verification process or whether the donated kits were ever used.

I was infinitely more successful in getting details about quick test provided by other countries. Spain and UK were forced to return large purchases of these tests as they failed the accuracy/reliability checks. I believe in both of these instances the kits were sourced from different manufacturers in China. Taiwan's quick tests and those produced by Germany are noted as being very reliable but considerably more expensive. In countries where funding for testing is limited to begin with, it is not unreasonable to expect the money will tend to be spent where it produces the greatest number of results for the cost.

Had the President not made reference to these previously unreported 40,000 results, would the Ministry of Health still chosen to make those results public at this time? I can't say. I do find the cause and effect as well as the timing to be curious. Are some or all of these quick test results accurate? I cannot say as there are no statements from the Govt easily attainable by the public to confirm or deny that each lot of quick tests was verified prior to being used for general testing. We don't know anything about these quick test kits including where they came from other than a best guess - probably from somewhere in China.

The numbers suggest that twice as many quick tests are being performed as PCR tests. If it is the Govt's intention to rely heavily on these cheaper and less labor intensive quick tests, then it is incumbent on the Govt to provide much more detail regarding the origins of the tests being used and their accuracy/failure rate. The information that I have been able to glean seems to suggest that when these quick tests do not perform as intended, they fail suggesting a negative test result as opposed to an inconclusive result. It would therefore be easy to record a failed quick test result as a negative diagnosis for CV19 if the test kits are not verified properly as the different lots are put into the field to be used.

Are two thirds of the reported CV19 tests thus far conducted in this country accurate? I honestly have no idea.
 
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Calos G-Diaz

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You have a forrest of tress, with x amount of trees in it (x= total number of trees). A fungus starts infecting some of the trees (infection = i), and killing others (k). You don't have an adequate amount of tests to test the entire forest, so you only test some the trees that are showing visible symptoms. You don't/can't test all of the trees that died (some could have died from natural causes, but tree deaths are way above normal and a lot of the trees that died showed symptoms). You release the following number based solely on the amount of trees that were tested: the "total" number of confirmed infected trees (t-i), and the number of confirmed trees killed by the virus (t-k). Both of those numbers are wayyyyy lower than the actual, indeterminate amount of trees that are actually infected or that have died as a result of the disease.

Now go back and replace trees with the given population of any country, and fungus with coronavirus. I've read reports that estimate that those numbers could be in the order of 20x higher in the US: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
 

cobraboy

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As others have mentioned, the confirmed numbers of infected and dead are just the tip of the iceberg, and that is true for all countries: https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-c...source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation

Then you have countries like China and Iran that have purposely lied about their numbers. China's numbers are a joke (there are many indications that the real number of dead in Wuhan is closer to at least 50k).
Do not confuse "infected" with hospitalized or dying. Infected also means recovered without symptoms, and now supposedly immune going forward.

If the current number is the "tip of the iceberg", we'd see an explosion of new hospitalizations and deaths, and that is not happening. In fact, quite the opposite.
 

Calos G-Diaz

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Ay amigo, you have a mind of a Nazi.

I find it amazing how people can espouse the social darwinism policies of the Nazis, the CCP (Google what they are doing to muslims/falung gong)...by saying that it is good that the virus will kill people. That's all great in the abstract, but I wonder if the person that made the comments you responded to would be ok with this if he or people in his family was included in the death toll to achieve the benefits they mentioned (solving humanity's problems)? Stalin said that 1 death is a tragedy, a million, a statistic. He knew what he was talking about having personally instituted policies that resulted in the death/starvation of millions. It's not a statistic to the people that are loosing loved ones to this. It's personal.

This is not Sparta anymore (killing the weak, leaving old people in the woods to die). We should try to solve the worlds problems through the use all of the tools that civilized nations have at their disposal, and not by letting nature run its course or letting people die unnecessarily when possible. Amazing that this has to be even debated at this point.

If 80% of those infected have little or mild symptoms (as some studies have suggested), people should stay in their house not because they are at risk, but because they risk infecting those that are vulnerable.
 
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Calos G-Diaz

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....and now supposedly immune going forward.

Supposedly, because this is unknown, and there is certainly no evidence that infection confers immunity. There are articles (google it) or numerous instances of people that had seemingly recovered from an infection that were "re-infected". Nobody knows, but this is likely to be seasonal, like the flu.

If the current number is the "tip of the iceberg", we'd see an explosion of new hospitalizations and deaths, and that is not happening. In fact, quite the opposite.

Where the hospitalizations and deaths are slowing is probably because the measures being taken are probably working. The fact remains that the actual number of people infected is far higher then the number of confirmed infections: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
Show me anything that proves otherwise (that these numbers are actually lower).

Note: Moderators are not posting some my responses (this is a rewrite of a response that was not posted). Don't know why.
 
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Supposedly, because this is unknown, and there is certainly no evidence that infection confers immunity. There are articles (google it) or numerous instances of people that had seemingly recovered from an infection that were "re-infected". Nobody knows, but this is likely to be seasonal, like the flu.



Where the hospitalizations and deaths are slowing is probably because the measures being taken are probably working. The fact remains that the actual number of people infected is far higher then the number of confirmed infections: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
Show me anything that proves otherwise (that these numbers are actually lower).

Note: Moderators are not posting some my responses (this is a rewrite of a response that was not posted). Don't know why.
 

Calos G-Diaz

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New report that the virus might have already mutated, making it more infectious.
Article: https://news.yahoo.com/mutant-coronavirus-emerged-even-more-110046843.html

Quote (my emphasis): "In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned."

There are already documented cases in South Korea and China of people who might have been reinfected (this is obviously not 100% conclusive at this point). I think there are a lot of questions that really won't get answered until 2-3 years from now.
 

caribmike

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"There are already documented cases in South Korea and China of people who might have been reinfected (this is obviously not a 100% conclusive at this point). I think there are a lot of questions that really won't get answered until 2-3 years from now. "

That has already been proofed as being not the case, check the news.
 

Calos G-Diaz

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That has already been proofed as being not the case, check the news.

My comment was conditional: the words used were "might" and "may have" since the issue of immunity unknown at this time, but it is more likely that if this virus behaves like others, people will not have permanent immunity to it and could be reinfected. In addition to the passage that I quoted in the recent article stating that mutations "might make people vulnerable to a second infection", this is commonly the way that immunity works with other coronaviruses. Experts have explicitly stated that this is their expectation (although this has not been 100% verified). This is why the flu is around every year. Yes, this is purely speculation at this point (I mentioned and conceded this, and do so again), but one possibility (no permanent immunity) is just more likely than the other (immunity, or even a combination of both). Can people be reinfected? The reason that is an open question is because we don't know for sure either way at this point.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html (discusses a whole bunch of possible alternative explanations).
https://fortune.com/2020/04/09/coro...red-patients-test-positive-reactivated-virus/
 

el justo

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Mar 6, 2020
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Great question - How many people do you think are really positive for Covid19 in the DR?
There is only one way to answer this and I have a plan. TEST EVERYONE! And keep testing everyone until there is no curve.
Now for the plan. In the USA they are performing over 1,000,000 tests per day. They are escalating to 5,000,000 per day. They are converting to a saliva based test which is accurate, proven, so shut up. This country has just over 12,000,000 people. This government needs to go buy the tests and start testing. Logistical nightmare. Insufficient medicos. Voluntary. The plan is to test everybody and regularly. It’s impossible but 80% is not and that’s enough to keep going with the information testing provides. These are the problems facing this plan. However, we still have to do it. Workforce is in abundance sitting at home. Dental assistants. Beauty therapists. 10s of thousands of highly intelligent people sitting at home doing not much. These people can be trained to perform tests in houses. Go to the people. Along with testing testers are to disseminate information to the people. Uber drivers and taxis can be engaged at a daily rate to transport these testers along with govt vehicles sitting idol. Build labs to analyze results with point of contact for people to voluntarily apear to be tested. These labs will be required for future pandemics. Record results using people’s cédulas. Once positive statistics are received commence contact tracing at the source. Self isolation instigated for 14 days until no longer infectious . Information is our best tool to commence reopening the economy. Non affected people and recovered people could be allowed to carry on normal lives with adhering to social distancing practices.
We need to throw everything at this. We need to try everything. We need to create processes now. Learn from mistakes and improve. The cure is too far away. It takes too long to develop. Hiv/aids still doesn’t have one. Vaccines are the ultimate cure but we need to do more now. Because whatever we do right now we will know how to do again better for the next pandemics.
Every life counts.
 

George101

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Jul 9, 2017
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Great question - How many people do you think are really positive for Covid19 in the DR?
There is only one way to answer this and I have a plan. TEST EVERYONE! And keep testing everyone until there is no curve.
Now for the plan. In the USA they are performing over 1,000,000 tests per day. They are escalating to 5,000,000 per day. They are converting to a saliva based test which is accurate, proven, so shut up. This country has just over 12,000,000 people. This government needs to go buy the tests and start testing. Logistical nightmare. Insufficient medicos. Voluntary. The plan is to test everybody and regularly. It’s impossible but 80% is not and that’s enough to keep going with the information testing provides. These are the problems facing this plan. However, we still have to do it. Workforce is in abundance sitting at home. Dental assistants. Beauty therapists. 10s of thousands of highly intelligent people sitting at home doing not much. These people can be trained to perform tests in houses. Go to the people. Along with testing testers are to disseminate information to the people. Uber drivers and taxis can be engaged at a daily rate to transport these testers along with govt vehicles sitting idol. Build labs to analyze results with point of contact for people to voluntarily apear to be tested. These labs will be required for future pandemics. Record results using people’s cédulas. Once positive statistics are received commence contact tracing at the source. Self isolation instigated for 14 days until no longer infectious . Information is our best tool to commence reopening the economy. Non affected people and recovered people could be allowed to carry on normal lives with adhering to social distancing practices.
We need to throw everything at this. We need to try everything. We need to create processes now. Learn from mistakes and improve. The cure is too far away. It takes too long to develop. Hiv/aids still doesn’t have one. Vaccines are the ultimate cure but we need to do more now. Because whatever we do right now we will know how to do again better for the next pandemics.
Every life counts.
Well Said
 

Calos G-Diaz

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Apr 15, 2020
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Studies are starting to suggest the immunity might only last a couple of months in some individuals, and the prospect that people could be infected more than once:; https://news.yahoo.com/can-you-get-coronavirus-twice-131237076.html

The heat does diminish the virus, but does not ammount to much if people are not wearing masks or social distancing. I think the idiots in the sunbelt states (Florida, Arizona Texas, California) are excellent examples. I knew that heat so going to be a small factor when cases in Mexico, Ecuador, and Brazil kept right on growning, depstive their hotter, tropical temps.

This sh*ts going to be around for the long haul. The fall/winder will make this worse in the northern hemisphere (the opposite of what was supposed to happen with heat).
 
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Celt202

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May 22, 2004
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Dominicans can, and will do, whatever they deem acceptable.
I am just saying falling ill has more drastic consequences for the folks who live pay check to pay check, than for the wealthy folks. And sadly in the dr, the former are the majority.
Then the poor should eat the rich...
with rice and beans.

la bandera

1595238254532.png


This is the perfect disease. It's almost as if it was designed in a laboratory.
 

RDKNIGHT

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Mar 13, 2017
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Morning All
Just read a fact today about the corvid19 ....outof all the people they have the virus here in DR only 2% of them die...and in the USA it's 4% ....
I wonder whats really happening because i don't believe the news agencies ..
 
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windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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Great question - How many people do you think are really positive for Covid19 in the DR?
There is only one way to answer this and I have a plan. TEST EVERYONE! And keep testing everyone until there is no curve.
Now for the plan. In the USA they are performing over 1,000,000 tests per day. They are escalating to 5,000,000 per day. They are converting to a saliva based test which is accurate, proven, so shut up. This country has just over 12,000,000 people. This government needs to go buy the tests and start testing. Logistical nightmare. Insufficient medicos. Voluntary. The plan is to test everybody and regularly. It’s impossible but 80% is not and that’s enough to keep going with the information testing provides. These are the problems facing this plan. However, we still have to do it. Workforce is in abundance sitting at home. Dental assistants. Beauty therapists. 10s of thousands of highly intelligent people sitting at home doing not much. These people can be trained to perform tests in houses. Go to the people. Along with testing testers are to disseminate information to the people. Uber drivers and taxis can be engaged at a daily rate to transport these testers along with govt vehicles sitting idol. Build labs to analyze results with point of contact for people to voluntarily apear to be tested. These labs will be required for future pandemics. Record results using people’s cédulas. Once positive statistics are received commence contact tracing at the source. Self isolation instigated for 14 days until no longer infectious . Information is our best tool to commence reopening the economy. Non affected people and recovered people could be allowed to carry on normal lives with adhering to social distancing practices.
We need to throw everything at this. We need to try everything. We need to create processes now. Learn from mistakes and improve. The cure is too far away. It takes too long to develop. Hiv/aids still doesn’t have one. Vaccines are the ultimate cure but we need to do more now. Because whatever we do right now we will know how to do again better for the next pandemics.
Every life counts.
It is impossible to test everyone enough. Impossible as in will never happen. Not in the US, not in the EU, not in China, not anywhere.
It takes only one case to start everything back up again. What you propose above is completely impractical in the real world.

As for a vaccine. Why do people think there will be an effective vaccine? One that lasts more than several months?
Even if you contract CV19, the antibodies fade in about 3 months. Why would a vaccine be better than that in duration for protection against infection?

This virus will be around for years.
 

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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Morning All
Just read a fact today about the corvid19 ....outof all the people they have the virus here in DR only 2% of them die...and in the USA it's 4% ....
I wonder whats really happening because i don't believe the news agencies ..
The actual infection death rate is lower than 2%. Closer to 0.5% as in 1 one in 200 people who contract the disease will die.
Still a staggering total number over the coming years.
 

windeguy

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Using case rates for the percentage of deaths produces a much higher number than the actual infection death rate.
 

el justo

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Mar 6, 2020
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It is impossible to test everyone enough. Impossible as in will never happen. Not in the US, not in the EU, not in China, not anywhere.
It takes only one case to start everything back up again. What you propose above is completely impractical in the real world.

As for a vaccine. Why do people think there will be an effective vaccine? One that lasts more than several months?
Even if you contract CV19, the antibodies fade in about 3 months. Why would a vaccine be better than that in duration for protection against infection?

This virus will be around for years.

Yes so you agree with me to test everybody is impossible. I take it you read the entire post and not just the first paragraph. But testing as many as possible gives valuable information on where the virus is and how it is moving/behaving. Testing has already detected new strains. Thru testing countries like NZ have achieved eradication. What I proposed is exactly what is occurring in the real world. You live under a rock? Every country is testing as many people as possible. In the DR it is yet to be set as a priority therefor limited tests have been sourced and remain scarce. Surely Gonzalez will be able to fly more tests in now the election has been lost and he has more time on his hands. No? It was just a political stunt? Go figure.

However it was so refreshing to read what your positive contributions/suggestions is to do. What ingenious plan you thought of to become part of the solution. Oh that’s right you suggest NOTHING. Great contribution. Do nothing. What a waste of space.
 
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