Hurricane Gustav .. was Tropical Storm Gustav

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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From tropical depression 7 to tropical storm in Record quick time.
We will update as soon as possible as data becomes available.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from santo domingo westward into Hati to Port Au Prince.

The forecast track has a great deal of uncertainty - the track may remain more northerly or more westward. The official forecast put it in the middle of the two converging model spreads. The storm is behaving erratically and could again be one of those that stall out with much rain.

This one is highly uncertain, strength is uncertain, development is uncertain and all preparations for safeguarding lives and possessions need to be made now and rushed to completion. There will be a recon flight later today.
 
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Chris

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We are now waiting for the special advisory that should be out soon and then thereafter for this afternoon's recon flight details. On the South Coast of the DR (excluding the Punta Cana area) I would be doing my final hurricane preparation.
 

Chris

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Recon reports indicate 60Mph winds. Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings mentioned earlier are now Hurricane Watches/Warnings.

Will report as the recon reports become available.

From Santo Domingo Westward the South Coast of the Dominican Republic into Haiti should be preparing for a hurricane.
 

Dolores1

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May 3, 2000
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It rained for about half an hour intensely in Santo Domingo, but now has cleared out. Overcast and cloudy still.

Here is the tracking map that explains what Chris is telling us about. This means it will be Hurricane Gustav when it passes by Pedernales, on the westernmost coast of the DR.
 

Jan

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2 PM report

...caribbean depression strengthens into tropical storm...

At 2 pm edt...1800 utc...the government of the dominican republichas upgraded the tropical storm warning to a hurricane warning forthe south coast of the dominican republic from santo domingowestward to the southern border of haiti.

At 2 pm edt...1800 utc...the tropical storm warning for thesouthwest peninsula of haiti from the southern border with thedominican republic and port-au-prince westward has been upgraded toa hurricane warning. A hurricane warning means that tropicalstorm conditions are expected within the warning area within thenext 24 hours.

At 2 pm edt...1500 utc...the tropical storm watch has been changedto a hurricane watch for haiti from north of port-au-prince to thenorthern border of the dominican republic. A hurricane watch meansthat hurricane conditions are possible within the watcharea...generally within 36 hours.

Reports from an air force hurricane hunter plane indicate thattropical depression seven has intensified into a tropical storm.

At 200 pm edt...1800z...the center of tropical storm gustav was located near latitude 15.8 north...longitude 70.5 west or about 225miles...365 km...south-southeast of port au prince haiti.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track the center of gustav will be moving near or over southwestern haiti on tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24hours...and gustav could strengthen into a hurricane prior to moving over land.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the air force reconnaissance plane is 996 mb...29.41 inches.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 7inches over hispaniola...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 25inches possible. These intense rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 200 pm edt position...15.8 n...70.5 w. Movement toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.minimum central pressure...996 mb.
 

Chris

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Coastline to the East of Santo Domingo should be preparing for much rain and the usual outflows of that .. mudslides and floods.

Coastline to the East of Santo Domingo should have their hurricane preparedness in such a state that it can be done on a moment's notice.

Coastline to the West of Santo Domingo should be finalizing evacution plans.

Nothing needs be done yet, besides being absolutely ready to act fast.

Again, the storm is erratic, we do not know exactly where it is, how much water it bears, the exact speed and if it is strengthening or not. So, please be prepared.
 

jalencastro

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Dec 15, 2004
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Damn, i am presently in Santo Domingo and it has been raining here nonstop, lots of thunder too....winds are starting to pickup here too....looks like i wont be driving around much as i had originally planned this week.
Any word if this is going to hit hard towards Samana? or is this storm moving north and northwest?
 

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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Great going Chris!! DR1 reported the Red Alerts early this morning, especiall for that deep south area. Let's hope that K Francis down in Cabral is all tucked in and dry....

We had rain and drizzle, but nothing really important in Santiago.

HB
 

jalencastro

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im more worried about driving in these conditions....right now the winds and rains are heavy in Santo Domingo, forecasters are obviously warning about coastal flooding. im just wondering if i should make the drive to Samana based on these conditions and how bad the north coast is going to get hit with rains or winds....this stinks :(
 
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MikeFisher

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the 'real rain'did not even start guys,
from my side of view the alerts for the dominican south coast should've been out at least right away this morning if not yesterday eve.
Gustav is expected to be a hurricane any moment,
it would be a big surprise if anything less than a mayor hurricane hits the Haitian south or somewhere near early tuesday, and that's tomorrow.
hurricane hunter data came in around 90 minutes ago,
pressure clearly under the deadly 100mb and falling fast,
formation contains 70+mphr hurricane strength winds
and that system even just started to grow up.
yes, PC will just get rain(started 30 minutes ago) and 20+knots winds as a max,
but our dominican south coast should be on highest alert tonight and during tomorrow, speacially where flooding rivers and mudslides bring danger to their surroundings.
the rain cached in Gustav is HUGE.
stay save everybody
Mike
 

Bronxboy

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Jul 11, 2007
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im more worried about driving in these conditions....right now the winds and rains are heavy in Santo Domingo, forecasters are obviously warning about coastal flooding. im just wondering if i should make the drive to Samana based on these conditions and how bad the north coast is going to get hit with rains or winds....this stinks :(

Dude, I was there the week of 8-15.

I would not drive.

There were cars stuck all over the place!!!!!!

I would wait until it clears!!!
 

M.A.R.

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Feb 18, 2006
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Dude, I was there the week of 8-15.

I would not drive.

There were cars stuck all over the place!!!!!!

I would wait until it clears!!!


I was there for Fay and it rained for a whole day but it was much needed rain in our area......hopefully it won't be too bad in santo domingo since it seems to be heading in the other direction.
 

MikeFisher

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I was there for Fay and it rained for a whole day but it was much needed rain in our area......hopefully it won't be too bad in santo domingo since it seems to be heading in the other direction.
sorry to completely disagree M.A.R.,
but where it is shown it goes to an other direction???
it is heading to the 'nearby' neighbourhood of santo domingo, the Haitian southshore and the southeast cuban coast are right there, even here in PC much more far away we feel the effects, the DR southeast should be warned and prepared for a big one since this morning.
if it changes before midnight it's direction just a few degrees more northwards the landfall would be over Barahona, of course i wish not, i wish it hits nobody, but i would not play with this one.
Mike
 

Dolores1

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I would think that Samana should be clear because the East has never been marked. This storm is south-southwest.

It's been on and off rain in Santo Domingo, but mostly off. Some short downpours, but no big gusts of wind like with some storms.
 

Dolores1

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I would think that Samana should be clear by tomorrow. This storm is south-southwest.

It's been on and off rain in Santo Domingo, but mostly off. Some short downpours, but no big gusts of wind like with some storms. This is a big island.

Let's see if someone from Samana posts on how the weather is there.
 

Chris

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if it changes before midnight it's direction just a few degrees more northwards the landfall would be over Barahona, of course i wish not, i wish it hits nobody, but i would not play with this one.
Mike

I'm with Mike on this one. Hope it does not hurt anyone but you need to prepare yourself for a hurricane.
 

Lambada

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the rain cached in Gustav is HUGE. Mike

Absolutely. Possibility of 20 inches spread over 2 days dropping on parts of Haiti. Satellite here, click on start animation for loop
Tropical Storm Gustav: Satellite view - animated

Seemingly 94L now Gustav qualifies as one to 'write home about' ;) Just call me Lambada the witch..........

This shows storm force wind speed probabilities
Tropical Storm GUSTAV

Just had a heavy shower in Puerto Plata, nothing like as heavy as it will get and we are fortunate, at present, compared to the south, unless as Mike says it alters direction.

5pm advisory here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/252034.shtml
Note suggestion that it will slow down in speed of forward direction i.e. drop more rain. And don't let the DR Gov't change of alert from hurricane warning to TS warning fool anyone.
 
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