Hurricane Isabel

[Ken]

Isabel now 135mph with slight strengthen possible, according to the 5 am report of the National Hurricane Center.

The projected track now shows both bad and good news: a turn to the west southwest or southwest that would aim the storm at the north coasts of PR and the DR because of that ridge that XR has been telling us about, followed by a turn to the west northwest or northwest that aims the storm toward the Bahama Islands and the US.

The next few days are going to be tense ones, especially if the storm changes course and appears to come closer to PR and the DR. But, at least for now, we can hope that before the storm reaches us that it will relent a bit and move further away.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/090903W5.gif

 

[XanaduRanch]

Wishful Forecasting?

What I don't understand Ken is where this guy at the NHC is getting that track. As of the morning runs all of the computer models show the southwestward turn followed by a due west track. Not west-northwest, and not northwest. So he pulled this one out of his hat or somewhere else in his anatomy and is now sitting with fingers crossed whistling dixie past the graveyard.

Forecasting is such a fun job!

There are two points that need to be made from the discussion, one I hadn't thought of, regarding the strength of the storm. The forecast is for a gradual weakening at days 3-5 in part because maybe of slightly cooler SST's in the path/wake of hurricane Fabian, and because historically CAT4's or more don't hold that strength beyond 5 days. Before anyone yells 'whoopee!' that would only bring it back down to the strength it's at now with winds around 135mph in the eyewall.

P.S.
It should also be noted that while the track errors have been averaging around 40NM on days 1-3 this year they are around 200NM on days 4-5. Even with the unexplained NW jog in the official track that still leaves the system only 150 miles north of the islands, well within the margin for error.

 

[chris29md]

Hurrican Isabel

My husband and I are planning on traveling to the Dominican Republic on Friday, September 12, for 4 days. It appears that we may have a terrible trip since the hurricane is expected to hit over this weekend. Does anyone know what is expected as far as the hurricane goes? Thanks.

 

[Ken]

An Interesting Footnote

The CNN weather man said that there had been a major hurricane on September 10 every year for the past 20. Since Isabel sure to still be around tomorrow, she is the major hurricane for this year.

 

[quaqualita]

XanaduRanch, reading all your forcasts regarding previous storms, it is obvious that you are THE meteorologist expert here. Almost all your predictions have come as good as 100% true, even when other "experts" from the hurricane center predicted a slightly different storm path.
Therefore, I completely trust your opinion and I will prepare for the worst.
I have a few questions: Many people living here are saying, that the Northcoast never has been directly hit by a major storm so far, is because of the high mountains in the DR. The rumor (?) is that even if a storm's path is toward the norhtcoast, that the high mountains to the south of us will give the hurricane a "push" to the North in the very last second. What is your expert opinion on this? Is that true or is it just a story to make us feel better here?

My other question is, what do you think we really have to expect here in Sosua/Cabarete if we have a worst case cenario here. Let's say a direct hit of a Cat. 4 huricane. Of course, there will be very strong winds, roofs made of tin or wood won't hold, lots of damage from broken trees and debris thrown through the air, etc. But, can I expect (hope), that a house with a cement roof will hold? And then, what is really to expect about the high waves from the ocean? Specially for Cabarete, which is basically built on a sandbank between the lagoon and the ocean and probably nowhere higher than 10 feet over the "normal" sea level. That's my biggest fear.
We would curl up in our bathroom, with food and water supply, and I think there we should be pretty good protected there from the wind damage a strom will bring (we also did move into our bathroom in 1998 and where watching on a small batterie powered TV, how George decided in the last second not to hit us and went south towards Santo Domingo). But, my house is like most other houses in and around Cabarete built on sand, and maybe about 150 feet away from the beach. How high would the ocean rise? and with what force? Could it just "wash" away everything close to the beach built on sand?

I also don't want to think pessemistic, but now it's still time to get prepared, if I know what more or less I have to expect.

 

[Chris]

Re: Wishful Forecasting?

What I don't understand Ken is where this guy at the NHC is getting that track. As of the morning runs all of the computer models show the southwestward turn followed by a due west track. Not west-northwest, and not northwest. SIZE]

Nice picture of the models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_model.html

For the non-sailors and non-weatherpeople around us, these tracks on the link are only computer simulations. They are not real. They have a 200 mile margin of error. It is too early to know what this storm is going to do. Read Ken's earlier post of what he has seen storms do in the Caribbean. At this stage, we are all watching and waiting. If you have preparations to do, by all means, do them. But it is not time for panic. This storm may miss us by many many miles.

 

[dawnwil]

No wishful forecasting, but ...

from time spent reading messages and conversing here, I will be wishing with all my might that all goes well for you, and the storm turns harmlessly to ocean.

It is remarkable to see the level of discussion-- I've never come close to witnessing a hurricane discussed in this way. We (and I include myself as a soon-to-be-resident) are fortunate to have this expertise so close at hand.

 

[XanaduRanch]

Thank you Quaqualita

Chris is right though, things can change in a hurry five days out. Plus, for there to be real significant damage other than from storm surge maybe we'd need to be within say 75 miles or so of the eye of the storm. That's a pretty small bullseye to draw.

Having said that, however, the projected path will be either roughly parallel to the coast (barring a southward jog that takes to the east coast, or south coast of the island) or turning into the coast from just off shore. That exposes a much larger area of coastline to potentially damaging effects over a longer period of time. That's what I am concerned about at the moment.

The mountainous nature of the island certainly helps. Not by 'pushing' the storm away as it nears. The circulation of the storm instead for the eye to be near the coast must be in large part over the mountains which disrupts the organization of the system. This effect is even more pronounced if, as is the much more likely case, the storm track brings the hurrican actually across the island from the south or southeast. The danger here is that the storm will stay far enough out over open water to the north not to be severely disrupted by geography. As I said earlier if you wanted to diagram about the only track that could cause a serious problem for the north coast of the DR, this would be it.

I wouldn't worry about a direct hit at the moment. That's still unlikely. A grazing would be the mostly likely scenario at the moment. A CAT4, and this probably will be a little weaker at a strong CAT3 at the time it passes would produce on shore waves in the 10-20 foot range I believe. I'd have to check that, hurricanes aren't my specialty. That will cause severe beach erosion. The winds at around 145 mph would not damage your cement home or roof directly assuming it's constructed properly. Wood roofs would start to disappear from buildings at around 115 or so, sustained. Expect probably 20 inches of rain, plus that storm surge so your elevation would be a concern in a direct approach of a hurricane even if the structure probably would be fine.

Andy's posts earlier were right on in terms of preparing your property. We're doing those kinds of things starting today. You don't want your windows assaulted by a coconut propelled out of a palm tree at 150 mph by the hurricane! Or your head for that matter!

Anyway, don't panic. All that's very unlikely. Be prepared, and probably we'll just wind up with some good rain and tropical storm force winds. We'll see ... the next 24-48 hours will tell us a lot.

Tom (aka XR)

 

[Dolores1]

Re: Hurrican Isabel

My husband and I are planning on traveling to the Dominican Republic on Friday, September 12, for 4 days. It appears that we may have a terrible trip since the hurricane is expected to hit over this weekend. Does anyone know what is expected as far as the hurricane goes? Thanks.

This post was transfered here so as to keep the Isabel posts together.

We suggest that you follow the discussions on this board, as the storm gets closer. You may also subscribe to dr1 daily news at http://www.dr1.com where we will be providing updates as the hurricane moves to the west. At this point, it is too early to cancel any trip. Actually, dr1 was born on the tail of a hurricane in 1995. I took one of the first planes out when Hurricane Allen (I believe that was the name) missed us at the last minute! I was headed to Spain for the internet media workshop of the Society of News Design conference where the original concept that gave birth to dr1 was first developed.

 

[XanaduRanch]

The Latest

No big changes here at 11AM.

The NHC forecaster backed off his northward jog a bit. Several of the models insist on an even more pronounced southwestward turn, then westward.

Interestingly despite all of the minutae here the official track keeps pushing the 21.0N crossing of the hurricane further and further west. A few days ago this was forecast at 62.5W, Through this morning 63.0W. As of 11AM its at 64.5W.

The next thing to watch will be the size of the wind fields as the storm approaches. If we can keep Isabel 100NM offshore, the hurricane force winds should also stay offshore and we'll just have to deal with lots of rain and 40mph winds with some gusts up around 50-60 maybe.

It's too early to be certain, but it still looks to me like the storm will be passing westward just offshore to our north at the moment.

 

[quaqualita]

thank you XR for all your updates. And, I don't panic, not yet at least. It's just good to know what to expect and if so, it's still days away, so we all have plenty of time to get prepared.
I'm aware, that the storm is still far away and lots can change until it will be close. I will keep an eye on Isabel and on your posts within the next days, and I'm sure so will others here on this board.

here is another interesting thing:
La Isabela (on the norhtcoast near Puerto Plata), founded by Columbus during his second voyage which he named after the queen of Spain , was the first Spanish settlement in the New World.
Will this storm now be the "Return of Isabela" ?

 

[Conchman]

XR,

The computer generated models from wunderground, the different tracks, are they based on different atmospheric conditions over the next few days or are they based on historical data from similiar storms?

Just curious as to how they base those tracks.

Thanks,

CM

 

[samiam]

Useless Fact

According to Frank Moya Pons, huracan is originally a Taino word.

 

[XanaduRanch]

OK Robert. So When do I get My 'DR1 Expert' Tag Line for All This Work?

The computer generated models from wunderground, the different tracks, are they based on different atmospheric conditions over the next few days or are they based on historical data from similiar storms? Just curious as to how they base those tracks.

Conchman, to the best of my knowledge the models to not take into account historical data per se. They are all based on a numerical model of how weather systems behave and interact. Of course, in figuring out how things work to turn all of that into a series of mathematical equations, historical realities are considered to be sure. But to say that the models refer to previous cases to make future projections would not be at all accurate.

The most difficult problem in computer modeling of the atmosphere really isn't the understanding of what's going on, it's getting enough data to make the models realistic. If you look at some of those models you will notice that the start position of the hurricane is not always the same. This is referred to as 'initialization'. If the data used to describe where everything's at initially is not correct, the final output or extrapolation will have larger errors as well.

It's a catch-22 however, because adding more actual observations to make the model more realistic quickly overloads even the fastest supercomputers with too much data so that by the time the computations are done, the day which was being forecast has already passed! So less data is used to get the output in time to be useful at the expense somewhat of the accuracy of the projections.

Tom (aka XR)

 

[XanaduRanch]

La Isabela (on the norhtcoast near Puerto Plata), founded by Columbus during his second voyage which he named after the queen of Spain , was the first Spanish settlement in the New World. Will this storm now be the "Return of Isabela" ?

If the storm actually causes damage that forces El Hippo to spend his newly gotten IMF money making repairs and cleaning up storm damage, I'd prefer to think of it as "The Chickens Coming Home to Roost" hurricane!

:: wink ::

 

[KenoshaChris]

A Nomination is in Order

I nominate our friend XanaduRanch as DR1 Man of the Year!

 

[XanaduRanch]

All I Really Want ...

... is for my roof to stay on, have a great hurricane party, and for Robert to remove the GOLD and give me my DR1 EXPERT status. LOL. Oh. That and a few more bottles of cheap wine as Joseito accused me of drinking!

Where are you at Kenosha? Are you here on the island with your Isabel? If so whereabouts?

Tom (aka XR)

 

[Conchman]

It seems there are currently updates four times per 24 hr period, at what point do they increase this?

I would assume it will be easier to send planes from Puerto Rico as the storm approaches. Is that where the hurricane hunters are based?

 

[KenoshaChris]

XR, I live in a small condo development on the harbor in Kenosha. I also have another condo over at Tradewinds in Sosua. That's where my Isabel is right now. I get down there monthly so lets hook up for a frosty Presidente.

 

[XanaduRanch]

NHC AOC Hisory

Conchman, here's a link to the history of the Hurricane Hunter programs by NASA and NOAA:

http://www.aoc.noaa.gov/history.htm

The updates are four times a day. They do intermediate updates halfway in between when US territory is being threatened, I do not remember whther they do this if other land masses are under the gun so to speak. They can't really increase the computer runs more than at present, computing speed doesn't allow that, so the intermediate updates are based on forecasters intuition solely.

KenoshaChris, I'll buy you the Presidente, you can get me a cold wine or champagne. It's a deal. If Trade Winds blows a way I will let you know! :: wink :: By the way, I am from Dubuque originally, so I know chedderland well. How 'bout that Viking-Packer game, eh? (Sorry, couldn't resist. The look on Favre's face was priceless!)

Tom (aka XR)