Hurricane Season 2011

mountainannie

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Sosua Cabarete
Mountainanne, On the north coast at least the rainfall this year is significantly below the four year average. If you add in Irene it is still below but about 18" . The year 2010 was one of the wettest years in the last five and almost 50% above the four year average.
We would be interested to know the thesis of your article - perhaps you can tell us all!

i
OLLY


it's on cholera.. and I was following the contamination of at least 10 of the rivers and tributaries and wondering if the recent flooding was worse than other years.. so thanks for saving me going down that wrong way...
 

mrsats

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Aug 23, 2011
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not working for me even when signed into facebook, but no worries, I was looking for info
on what parts of the DR made it relately well, how did the beaches and islands make out,
flooding in the south looks horrible, but what about punta cana, samana, bacardi island
and puerto plata, they all looked like they were on the outer edge of the storm or in storm
surge territory.? I remember being in Cancun about 4 months after their hurricane, trees
down, beaches stripped of sand, garbage and debris strewn all over the reefs, it was
a mess. The DR is beautiful and I hope it fared better?
:surprised
I had hoped everything was ok, but latest news here says 4 dead, but I assume that
was from the after effect of flooding.?
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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sorry, I guess You need to be Friends on Facebook with Monika first to be able to see Her Fotos, my Bad, did not think about that feature.
Mrsats,
eve much further away the hardest parts of Irene been taken in the far SE of the Island,
I assume most Damage been received in Bayahibe/La Romana.
while Irene been very close right in front of the Homedoor in Punta Cana she wasn't felt any Bad, at least we expected much more by that Time, we did not even know if she will pass by or come straight in.
the Hard stuff of Irene we got very long after the Center been gone, when she was centered along the Northcoast, that was the Time Punta Cana and Bayahibe received the hardest bouncing of Irene.
such Storms are very big and widespread, don't just look on the position of the Center, You have to watch the Rainbands spinning hundreds of Miles outside of such Center, and those Bands contain very Hard Winds and the Full Rainloads, Tropical Storm Force Winds in such Bands are not seldom, and there can be even more.
to show how far away a Hurricane can effect a Area,
we passed last night very calm here on the East til near Noon today, then a few Times the wind gusted a bit, no biggie, nothing hard. then for around 1hr I heard Thunder over the water, very close and the Sky over the water near the Beach been very dark.
since 30 minutes we have soft but continuous Rainfall without wind, Thunder is heard farer in the Distance now, but Irene's Powers still pull up Rainbands from the southcentral Caribbean towards the Islands.
next wave of Thunder is coming from the other side very close now, Rain is still on continuously.

Tropical Depression #10 in the Far Eastern Atlantic goes on with it's WNW'ern Tracking, it most likely will never effect any Landmass, I just watch it in case it would go back on a straight Westward Tracking the next couple Days.

Mike
 

jrjrth

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Mar 24, 2011
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~Mike, what is your take of the path for Irene on the East Coast of US....

The news in the US is really posting warnings that need to be heeded,which we are doing, they are saying its going to be the worst thing to hit NJ and NYC since the storm of 1944 , however we would like to know what your predictions are for the path....are we doomed on the NJ Coast and NYC??

It would be greatly appreciated...
 

MikeFisher

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sorry JR,
I did not follow up Irene further in Details since She left the Island,
we are still fighting Her darn Rain here, at least it's raining down windfree now.
if a Hurricane even just as Cat1 would really run straight into New York, such extremely high populated Area, I would guess She would be a Mayor Desaster/Record Desaster, that Area is most likely not prepared for such Kind of threat.
I do myself not know the big City nor it's surroundings, I don't know how high or low of elevations the different Parts are located.
most important is to check the Tide charts and add the awaited/Forecasted Stormsurge for specific Areas, if High Tide and Forecasted Stormsurge are added, add to that an other 15% to stay on the safe side, and if that number is higher than the Location is located elevationwise, then I would recommend to leave such Area to higher Grounds.
in case of Windforces I have really no Clue what Powers the Constructions there can stand.
here in PC we do not have High Buildings, so I would not have any doubt to sit out a Cat1 Hurricane right here at Home in the 2nd Floor where even a High Surf could not do any Harm, but I don't know how Stormwinds impat Highrise Buildings.
a good Site to check Surfs/Tides and awaited Impacts is the Weather Underground, the Block of Dr Jeff Masters is the Best I ever found on the Net.

stay Safe

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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here is Dr Jeff Masters take on the Stormsurges and the awaited Fatal Impact of it on the whole New England Coastline.
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<table class="full" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="full">Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:55 AM ADT en Agosto 25, 2011</td><td id="pluscontain_1899" class="nobr">+30
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</td><td>http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1899#http://twitter.com/share?url=http:/...ge+threat+to+the+mid-Atlantic+and+New+Englandhttp://rss.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rss.xml
<script type="text/javascript"> (function($){ $("div#socialWeather > a[id^='social']").each(function(index) { $(this).hover( function () { $(this).parent().css('background-position','0px -' +(26*(index+1))+ 'px'); }, function () { $(this).parent().css('background-position','0px 0px'); }); }); $("#socialTwitter").click(function() { locationurl="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wunderground.com%2Fblog%2FJeffMasters%2Fcomment.html%3Fentrynum=1899"; var miniurl = $.ajax({ url: "/miniurl/api.php?url="+locationurl, async: false }).responseText; if(miniurl && miniurl.length>0) pageurl="http://twitter.com/share?url=" + encodeURIComponent(miniurl) + "&via=wunderground&related=wunderground&text=Irene+an+extremely+dangerous+storm+surge+threat+to+the+mid-Atlantic+and+New+England"; else pageurl="http://twitter.com/share?url=" + locationurl + "&via=wunderground&related=wunderground&text=Irene+an+extremely+dangerous+storm+surge+threat+to+the+mid-Atlantic+and+New+England"; window.open(pageurl,"twitterwindow","menubar=1,resizable=0,width=550,height=370"); return false; }); })(jQuery); </script></td></tr></tbody></table> Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.
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Mike
 

MikeFisher

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here is the link to His Blogg.
this Man is not a CNN weather froggie or such, He is not any unexperienced in-charge Person for a Rescue Squad or inexperienced Mayor to decide about evacuations or such, He is a world's Top Storm Expert who flew with the Hurricane Hunters and knows exactly what He is talking about.
on the Blogg you find also the links to the published awaited Stormsurgenumbers for the New England Coast.
it is awaited that the Stormsurge of Irene will hit the Shores from Ocean City to Atlantic City during the Highest Regular Tide of the Month August.
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England : Weather Underground

Mike
 

AlterEgo

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Jan 9, 2009
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here is Dr Jeff Masters take on the Stormsurges and the awaited Fatal Impact of it on the whole New England Coastline.
---------------------------------
Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.
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Mike

Thanks for this link Mike - I'd better start packing. I'm a couple of miles south of Atlantic City, on the same island. 15' of water is unimaginable.

AE
 

william webster

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Jan 16, 2009
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I just sent all that to my friends in Cape May....... I hope they heed the warning.

Thanks for the information, Mike

AE....... fill the car..... drive....

WW
 

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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and it's still darn raining here on the East, windfree but freakin' raining.
make's depressive, I miss to have more Beachwalks with my babygirl and I need to do something else than playing around on the darn Computer.

Mike
 

AlterEgo

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absolutely right.
here is the direct link to the interactive Stormsurge Map, you can change that on top of the page into any Cat Categorie to see the differences.
Your Area is def in for 10_ft above Groundlevel and it could easily be a 15ft.

Storm Surge Interactive Risk Maps

Mike

Holy cow, I entered Category 2, and it shows the entire island I live on under water. Even scarier, it looks like our daughter's house - 10 miles inland - might be in danger too.

AE
 

MikeFisher

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this is Today's Noon Tracking Forecast for Irene.
-----------------------------------
Track forecast for Irene<big></big>
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.

--------------------------------

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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AE,
read the Copy/Paste advice on my last post above, due Size and slow forward movement Irene's Storm Surge should be awaited to be the Stormsurge of a Hurricane one Cat Categorie Higher than Irene's actual Winds are categorized.
such brings some extra ft of Water.

Mike
 

jrjrth

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Mar 24, 2011
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Wow this is enlightening to say the least~

AE~ you are in the 14- 16 feet range based on the Storm Surge map Mike linked us to...

I am in the 10-12 feet range....Take good care, take all that's important and sentimental. Pray for the best and be safe.

~Mike thanks for going the extra mile for all of us DR and else where....keep your eyes down the highway for us all
 

jrjrth

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Mar 24, 2011
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AE,
read the Copy/Paste advice on my last post above, due Size and slow forward movement Irene's Storm Surge should be awaited to be the Stormsurge of a Hurricane one Cat Categorie Higher than Irene's actual Winds are categorized.
such brings some extra ft of Water.

Mike



~Plus we have an astronomical High Tide with the New Moon...this brings the tides up 2-3 feet by themself without the hurricanes help....
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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don't get confused when Irene does not show up to Intensify this afternoon and this evening, She may even show up weakening for a few hours.
She is undergoing a Eyewall replacement, building a new Eyewal from one of Her outer Bands, the new one will be significantly larger in Size and once finished She will start again to intensify rapidly.
perfect would be if she would receive Dry Air into Her Core during that Process to give Her some slaps, but the Experts estimate such knockdown on no more than max 10% of Her Powers, every percent is a good percent, but she will stay still very bad.

Mike