- Thread starter MikeFisher
- Start date
Hurricane Season 2011
JR,
we did not even remove our veranda Furnitures, as Emily not been awaited to walk straight into the Eastshores.
before yesterday the Mrs and the Gals been washing clothes here and dried them out in the garden by the Beach without any Problem, the same with the washing helping the Neighbours Wife yesterday in the morning.
the facit now that it's over is:
in PC been nothing,
sure I know other regions will sorrily have different to report, as I know that I am located on theCalmest End of the island weather/Storm wise.
I am with that Veranda just a 20 meters off the Beach and nothing got a Chance to be flooded away or blown away, there was not even the need to close the Windows during the Night, as the fresh Breeze been welcome.
Mike
we did not even remove our veranda Furnitures, as Emily not been awaited to walk straight into the Eastshores.
before yesterday the Mrs and the Gals been washing clothes here and dried them out in the garden by the Beach without any Problem, the same with the washing helping the Neighbours Wife yesterday in the morning.
the facit now that it's over is:
in PC been nothing,
sure I know other regions will sorrily have different to report, as I know that I am located on theCalmest End of the island weather/Storm wise.
I am with that Veranda just a 20 meters off the Beach and nothing got a Chance to be flooded away or blown away, there was not even the need to close the Windows during the Night, as the fresh Breeze been welcome.
Mike
Bloody cold breeze here Mike, makes me want to make gl?wheihn 
No sun at all today and a drizzling rain started this afternoon, no real wind, just soft breeze and temp dropped significantly.
No sun at all today and a drizzling rain started this afternoon, no real wind, just soft breeze and temp dropped significantly.
right now I would estimate the location of Emily's Center less than 15 miles off the Haitian Coat, wandering on the Dry now.
Mike
Mike
Mike, I asked ppl for a "current" update signaling the end of the storms reach in that area. Thank you for giving your updates.
Guys and Mike, oh sorry Girls too,
I dont think we should dismiss Emily so soon. It looks as if it has hopped over the mountains and may reform north of DR and head through T&C. The analysts say as much.
We are getting gusty winds and intermitent rain here on the north coast but have not had a significant amount of rain.
I think we should still watch this one but for you Mike it is probably over.
Dolores I thought that was a great piece on hurricanes.
Olly
I dont think we should dismiss Emily so soon. It looks as if it has hopped over the mountains and may reform north of DR and head through T&C. The analysts say as much.
We are getting gusty winds and intermitent rain here on the north coast but have not had a significant amount of rain.
I think we should still watch this one but for you Mike it is probably over.
Dolores I thought that was a great piece on hurricanes.
Olly
wow. I saw the US air force (US aviation group?) said emily has broken up so they are not tracking it. they also said it may reform, so they will start tracking it if it does in fact reform. I have no firsthand knowledge of a hurricane. do they often form south of the carribean and the african coast, and then oftentimes work their way up to the PR trade winds. I know that's a random question, but maybe someone would like to give me some practical info on hurricanes in the Caribbean. I will probably be back so Id like to know a little more ')
the rain has died down for a pretty decent amount of time in the Distrito N. It came down real hard a few hours ago
no Mountainwalk for Emily.
She crossed the Westernmost Tip of the South Haitian Peninsula, at least what is left from the former Tropical Storm went that Way towards SE Cuba.
that SE Cuba to take without any powers would be quiet hard stuff for 'Emily'.
nothing is impossible on such Systems as we saw often enough over the Decades, but it would be much more liokely that She walks along the southern Cuban Coastline, there She could even get a slight chance to come back as a Tropical Force,
IF She survives tonight as anything anyways.
to guess on such You need to check the surrounding conditions in the Area there, I don't klnow if they are favorable or not,
it's far away from our Island and the Hunter Flights are of course stopped now, so no Data to gain from their Sites.
how did it go in our Capital City?, in Barahona?, what's been up in Santiago?
here on the East we did not get anything today, been extremely calm, cloudy but no Rain, wind is max a low 5Knots Breeze, barely to feel a Breeze today.
Ocean went down completely late last night and during the whole Day today,
so tomorrow Offshore Fishing is the name of the Game for the east, ha ha.
Radar over the Mona Passage is clear,
the light Breeze comes out of the SE where actually notyhing Bad nor Bothering is around,
so we can enjoy a calm Night and look forward to a nice Day on da Beach Tomorrow.
actually no other Formations expected from the Highway Side.
Mike
She crossed the Westernmost Tip of the South Haitian Peninsula, at least what is left from the former Tropical Storm went that Way towards SE Cuba.
that SE Cuba to take without any powers would be quiet hard stuff for 'Emily'.
nothing is impossible on such Systems as we saw often enough over the Decades, but it would be much more liokely that She walks along the southern Cuban Coastline, there She could even get a slight chance to come back as a Tropical Force,
IF She survives tonight as anything anyways.
to guess on such You need to check the surrounding conditions in the Area there, I don't klnow if they are favorable or not,
it's far away from our Island and the Hunter Flights are of course stopped now, so no Data to gain from their Sites.
how did it go in our Capital City?, in Barahona?, what's been up in Santiago?
here on the East we did not get anything today, been extremely calm, cloudy but no Rain, wind is max a low 5Knots Breeze, barely to feel a Breeze today.
Ocean went down completely late last night and during the whole Day today,
so tomorrow Offshore Fishing is the name of the Game for the east, ha ha.
Radar over the Mona Passage is clear,
the light Breeze comes out of the SE where actually notyhing Bad nor Bothering is around,
so we can enjoy a calm Night and look forward to a nice Day on da Beach Tomorrow.
actually no other Formations expected from the Highway Side.
Mike
I can try to answer your question Mike. The rain was the hardest Ive seen it since I came on July 4th. I should note that the night I can had a tremendous rainstorm, which could have surpassed tonights. I saw people walking around during the day, and also driving. I'd say it was not that difficult, aside from the 2 hours of heavy heavy rain. This is in the DN, cerca Gazcue.
In most of Santo Domingo it rained from the early morning to around 6pm, and then again prior to dawn. But I would describe it as continuous rain, lots of it, but not torrential as we have had in previous weeks. This Friday, we have woken to a wet day with grey skies, but now at 7:30am, it is not raining any more.
A big big applause for Mike Fisher for the extraordinary forecasting and explaining he has shared with us! At DR1 we have been blessed with excellent weather communicators, from the days of Ken De Pree, Chris and now MikeFisher. All those who add what is happening in their area and the good humor and insights make it even more special. Special thanks to all who have contributed to this thread.
August had never been a month of much importance for hurricanes. Historically the 11 hurricanes that have hit over the past 100 years have happened in September (David was the exception but on 31 August). But Emily could be a product of climate change... Anyway, this storm has served to hone our skills at weather watching and reporting, all in the Dominican Republic have now been able to rehearse preparations for a big storm. May we be prepared for the next one...
August had never been a month of much importance for hurricanes. Historically the 11 hurricanes that have hit over the past 100 years have happened in September (David was the exception but on 31 August). But Emily could be a product of climate change... Anyway, this storm has served to hone our skills at weather watching and reporting, all in the Dominican Republic have now been able to rehearse preparations for a big storm. May we be prepared for the next one...
NOAA just increased the amount of Named Storms for this 2011 Season!!!!
Updated 2011 Hurricane Season Forecasts
by Meteorologists Jonathan Erdman and Chris Dolce
2011 forecasts vs. 1995-2010 average
2011 Atlantic named storm tracks
Related Video
Tropical Update
We are watching the tropics to see if anything is developing.
Birth of a Hurricane
Hurricane Expert Dr. Rick Knabb shows you how hurricanes come to life.
Related Stories
?State of 2011 Hurricane Season
?Billion-dollar hurricanes
?Ten Spectacular Hurricane Images
?Dr. Knabb: Prepare for aftermath, not just the storm
Explore weather.com
Weather Ready: Hurricane safety tips
Encyclopedia: All about hurricanes
Hawaii: Hurricanes
Updated: August 4, 2011 11:00 AM EDT
With the peak of the hurricane season ahead, experts are releasing updates to their forecasts for the 2011 season. On July 26, Weather Services International (WSI), a Weather Channel Company, released their update calling for a continued active season ahead.
A little more than a week later, Colorado State University and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have issued their updated forecasts. Below you can find the forecasts from Colorado State, NOAA and WSI.
Colorado State Hurricane Forecast
In their early August update, Colorado State University (CSU) has kept its 2011 hurricane season forecast steady, calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
The 16 named storms includes the 5 storms we've already seen this year: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily.
The total amount of storm, hurricane and major hurricane activity in 2011 is forecast to be 175 percent of average. Last year was 196 percent above average.
CSU's forecast indicates the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity to be well above the long-term average.
The forecast cites that above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, unusually low sea level pressure anomalies and the absence of La Nina or El Nino will contribute to the active season.
As always, these hurricane forecasts can give an indication of how active a season might be, but do not predict the exact details of where or if any landfalls occur.
Stu Ostro blog: Are seasonal forecasts useless?
NOAA Hurricane Forecast
On August 4, 2011, NOAA released their updated forecast for the 2011 hurricane season.
The previous forecast issued in May called for between 12 and 18 named storms and 6 to 10 hurricanes. NOAA has increased these numbers in their updated August forecast and now expects between 14 and 19 named storms and 7 to 10 hurricanes. The number of major hurricanes remains close to the original forecast with 3 to 5 expected.
The updated forecast numbers include the five tropical storms we've already seen through early August.
?The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,? said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. ?Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we?ve seen so far this season.?
NOAA cited several climate factors considered for this outlook:
- The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are the 3rd highest on record.
- Reduced wind shear and low air pressures across the tropical Atlantic.
- Possible redevelopment of La Nina conditions.
Updated 2011 Hurricane Season Forecasts
by Meteorologists Jonathan Erdman and Chris Dolce
2011 forecasts vs. 1995-2010 average
2011 Atlantic named storm tracks
Related Video
Tropical Update
We are watching the tropics to see if anything is developing.
Birth of a Hurricane
Hurricane Expert Dr. Rick Knabb shows you how hurricanes come to life.
Related Stories
?State of 2011 Hurricane Season
?Billion-dollar hurricanes
?Ten Spectacular Hurricane Images
?Dr. Knabb: Prepare for aftermath, not just the storm
Explore weather.com
Weather Ready: Hurricane safety tips
Encyclopedia: All about hurricanes
Hawaii: Hurricanes
Updated: August 4, 2011 11:00 AM EDT
With the peak of the hurricane season ahead, experts are releasing updates to their forecasts for the 2011 season. On July 26, Weather Services International (WSI), a Weather Channel Company, released their update calling for a continued active season ahead.
A little more than a week later, Colorado State University and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have issued their updated forecasts. Below you can find the forecasts from Colorado State, NOAA and WSI.
Colorado State Hurricane Forecast
In their early August update, Colorado State University (CSU) has kept its 2011 hurricane season forecast steady, calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
The 16 named storms includes the 5 storms we've already seen this year: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily.
The total amount of storm, hurricane and major hurricane activity in 2011 is forecast to be 175 percent of average. Last year was 196 percent above average.
CSU's forecast indicates the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity to be well above the long-term average.
The forecast cites that above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, unusually low sea level pressure anomalies and the absence of La Nina or El Nino will contribute to the active season.
As always, these hurricane forecasts can give an indication of how active a season might be, but do not predict the exact details of where or if any landfalls occur.
Stu Ostro blog: Are seasonal forecasts useless?
NOAA Hurricane Forecast
On August 4, 2011, NOAA released their updated forecast for the 2011 hurricane season.
The previous forecast issued in May called for between 12 and 18 named storms and 6 to 10 hurricanes. NOAA has increased these numbers in their updated August forecast and now expects between 14 and 19 named storms and 7 to 10 hurricanes. The number of major hurricanes remains close to the original forecast with 3 to 5 expected.
The updated forecast numbers include the five tropical storms we've already seen through early August.
?The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,? said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. ?Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we?ve seen so far this season.?
NOAA cited several climate factors considered for this outlook:
- The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are the 3rd highest on record.
- Reduced wind shear and low air pressures across the tropical Atlantic.
- Possible redevelopment of La Nina conditions.
the seasonal Forecasts/Outlooks are in their Sense doubted by many Experts.
as we all know, also the Real pros from both Sides, We are in a Hyperactive Phase for Storm Development and Intensifying of their Powers since the mid 1990's, and we will stay on such Hyperactive Phase more many more Years to come, as it it Mother Nature's Cycle, independent of bad Influences doene by the Human Spezies killing da Ozon, melting Icebergs, detonating Atomic Bombs under Sea, warming up the Globe with their dirty Cars etc etc.
hence every Season in the New Millenium, and that wilol stay the same for many more Seasons to come the next Years, will be Predicted "Above Average", as we are still on the climbing Part of the Ladder.
last Season been predicted(announced during July 2010) to be hyperactive (196$ above average), and what we got been a smooth Season as usual with little bothering to our sweet lil Isle.
this 2011 Season is Predicted also above Average, but even with 5 already seen named Storms til early August 2011 this Season is on their August 4th 2011(yesterday's) Outlook expected/predicted on just 175% above average, still a good number but also far below the predictions for last Year.
I see the Season's Outlooks just as a Panik Tool,
because they do not show/predict(would be completely impossible of course to do such) Where Nor When a Storm pops up, nor do such Outlooks tell Which Path they will go nor Which Land/Country/Is;land would be effected or in Danger due Them.
to us simple average People those Seasonal Outlooks issued every year 3 Times(first in Spring as a very looong Shot, then revised end June and again late July or early August after the Season started with their first named Storms) do not provide any relevant Info in case of our ow security or preparedness.
let's see it from an other point of View:
if You live in a Area which may get influenced by a Storm, as I do, would You prepare any different due a forecasted 'above average Season" than You would prepare the House and Family on a "below average Season" Outlook?
If Your answer is "Yes", then You still did not have learned anything about the Tropics and the dangers by their Tropical Systems, because Your thinking goes still the completely wronmg way.
You need to be Prepared from the first til the last Day of every Season COMPLETELY, with all stocked as there would be a Mayor Hurricane Hit for sure next weekend, only then You have Your House and Family prepared appropriately.
I live since over 16 years in Punta Cana, 2011 is my 17th consecutive Hurricane Season down here, and even during the Highest Active predicted Seasons we are usually just fine, get slightly abiove average winds for a day or 2, 1-3 days of clouds with some Rain, and all is fine.
so if they would predict a Season "below average Active", should I say:
Hey, on the above average Seasons we get almost nothing, so now for below average predicted it would be a waste of Money and time to prepare the house anf the Family and overstock the Fridge.
the Point is:
during a Hyperactive Season with double the Big Storms than usdually, Your Specific Location may stay Fine and uneffected because the Storms went directionwise elsewhere and spared Your Location,
while during a Low moving smooth Season just One Single little Tropical Storm Pops Up, but decides to do so exactly in front of Your Location and Hits with TS Windforce and 15inches of Rain in 24hrs YOUR Location just a few hours after it formed Up.
that would be the Hit in a Low Moving Season.
a Longshot Outylook/Forecast as a Overview of a Season for the whole Area(it is as ONE Single Forecast announced for the whole Atlantic Basin from the Cape Verde Islands on the African Westcoast til the Gulf of mexico, the US Eastshores, the Canadian Atlantic Maritimes all Together) is really of ZERO Help or Sense for Us simple Residents/Citizens/Travellers.
We need the Outlooks for the specific Areas where We Live, and such Outlooks/Forecasts can not get started to be Guessed before a Storm has already Formed and is on the Move, and even then the Professionals may even Fail 100% as we experienced on TS Emily the last Days, while they brought the Storm from the beginning NW wards over the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico or at least over Punta Cana on the DR Eastshores, here on DR1 we had the Outlook that it is much more likely to get Emily wandering Westward Hoooo straight into the Caribbean Sea and along Our Southshores, what She finally exactly did, and we had that prediction up here even before she been given Her "Name".
to get nervous about a "above average" predicted Hurricane Season would be the same as to cancel on August 5th 2011 a Vacation booked for December 31st 2011 due a longrange weather forecast which states there are 50% chances of Thunderstorms for the Area on that specific Day, just useless.
we already had 5 named Storms this young Season, so we will sure exceed the Dozen by far, to reach a 15 should be a minimum as the Storm Development will be favoured by La Nina specially during September and October(for this Year I see late Season/October as the most dangerous and most active Timeperiod) and it is not out of the Ordinary to reach Tropical Depression #20 announcement by mid October in the middle of the Heat of the Battle.
on such a number of Formations, with the as Fact very Hot Sea Surface Temps over the Atlantic And the Caribbean Sea to fuel Development, 5 Mayor Hurricanes of Cat 3-5 to develop and make Landfall "somewhere" would not be a Surprise.
but the Outlook does not show Where and When they Form nor Who will be effected/in Danger.
the facit:
We are already in the Season,
we already had 5 named Storms this young 2011 Season,
Who is still not prepared in case a biggy kicks in tomorrow, did really fail on selfeducation/informing in case of Tropical Storms,
as We need to be Prepared Every Season ALL Season Loooong, from end May til somewhere end Nov or early Dec the National Hurricane Center announces that the Conditions over the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are not anymore favorable for a Tropical Storm Development.
get prepared and stay safe everybody
Mike
today typing from Sunny Skies, Wind on Zero, Ocean a Flat Plate here on the East
as we all know, also the Real pros from both Sides, We are in a Hyperactive Phase for Storm Development and Intensifying of their Powers since the mid 1990's, and we will stay on such Hyperactive Phase more many more Years to come, as it it Mother Nature's Cycle, independent of bad Influences doene by the Human Spezies killing da Ozon, melting Icebergs, detonating Atomic Bombs under Sea, warming up the Globe with their dirty Cars etc etc.
hence every Season in the New Millenium, and that wilol stay the same for many more Seasons to come the next Years, will be Predicted "Above Average", as we are still on the climbing Part of the Ladder.
last Season been predicted(announced during July 2010) to be hyperactive (196$ above average), and what we got been a smooth Season as usual with little bothering to our sweet lil Isle.
this 2011 Season is Predicted also above Average, but even with 5 already seen named Storms til early August 2011 this Season is on their August 4th 2011(yesterday's) Outlook expected/predicted on just 175% above average, still a good number but also far below the predictions for last Year.
I see the Season's Outlooks just as a Panik Tool,
because they do not show/predict(would be completely impossible of course to do such) Where Nor When a Storm pops up, nor do such Outlooks tell Which Path they will go nor Which Land/Country/Is;land would be effected or in Danger due Them.
to us simple average People those Seasonal Outlooks issued every year 3 Times(first in Spring as a very looong Shot, then revised end June and again late July or early August after the Season started with their first named Storms) do not provide any relevant Info in case of our ow security or preparedness.
let's see it from an other point of View:
if You live in a Area which may get influenced by a Storm, as I do, would You prepare any different due a forecasted 'above average Season" than You would prepare the House and Family on a "below average Season" Outlook?
If Your answer is "Yes", then You still did not have learned anything about the Tropics and the dangers by their Tropical Systems, because Your thinking goes still the completely wronmg way.
You need to be Prepared from the first til the last Day of every Season COMPLETELY, with all stocked as there would be a Mayor Hurricane Hit for sure next weekend, only then You have Your House and Family prepared appropriately.
I live since over 16 years in Punta Cana, 2011 is my 17th consecutive Hurricane Season down here, and even during the Highest Active predicted Seasons we are usually just fine, get slightly abiove average winds for a day or 2, 1-3 days of clouds with some Rain, and all is fine.
so if they would predict a Season "below average Active", should I say:
Hey, on the above average Seasons we get almost nothing, so now for below average predicted it would be a waste of Money and time to prepare the house anf the Family and overstock the Fridge.
the Point is:
during a Hyperactive Season with double the Big Storms than usdually, Your Specific Location may stay Fine and uneffected because the Storms went directionwise elsewhere and spared Your Location,
while during a Low moving smooth Season just One Single little Tropical Storm Pops Up, but decides to do so exactly in front of Your Location and Hits with TS Windforce and 15inches of Rain in 24hrs YOUR Location just a few hours after it formed Up.
that would be the Hit in a Low Moving Season.
a Longshot Outylook/Forecast as a Overview of a Season for the whole Area(it is as ONE Single Forecast announced for the whole Atlantic Basin from the Cape Verde Islands on the African Westcoast til the Gulf of mexico, the US Eastshores, the Canadian Atlantic Maritimes all Together) is really of ZERO Help or Sense for Us simple Residents/Citizens/Travellers.
We need the Outlooks for the specific Areas where We Live, and such Outlooks/Forecasts can not get started to be Guessed before a Storm has already Formed and is on the Move, and even then the Professionals may even Fail 100% as we experienced on TS Emily the last Days, while they brought the Storm from the beginning NW wards over the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico or at least over Punta Cana on the DR Eastshores, here on DR1 we had the Outlook that it is much more likely to get Emily wandering Westward Hoooo straight into the Caribbean Sea and along Our Southshores, what She finally exactly did, and we had that prediction up here even before she been given Her "Name".
to get nervous about a "above average" predicted Hurricane Season would be the same as to cancel on August 5th 2011 a Vacation booked for December 31st 2011 due a longrange weather forecast which states there are 50% chances of Thunderstorms for the Area on that specific Day, just useless.
we already had 5 named Storms this young Season, so we will sure exceed the Dozen by far, to reach a 15 should be a minimum as the Storm Development will be favoured by La Nina specially during September and October(for this Year I see late Season/October as the most dangerous and most active Timeperiod) and it is not out of the Ordinary to reach Tropical Depression #20 announcement by mid October in the middle of the Heat of the Battle.
on such a number of Formations, with the as Fact very Hot Sea Surface Temps over the Atlantic And the Caribbean Sea to fuel Development, 5 Mayor Hurricanes of Cat 3-5 to develop and make Landfall "somewhere" would not be a Surprise.
but the Outlook does not show Where and When they Form nor Who will be effected/in Danger.
the facit:
We are already in the Season,
we already had 5 named Storms this young 2011 Season,
Who is still not prepared in case a biggy kicks in tomorrow, did really fail on selfeducation/informing in case of Tropical Storms,
as We need to be Prepared Every Season ALL Season Loooong, from end May til somewhere end Nov or early Dec the National Hurricane Center announces that the Conditions over the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are not anymore favorable for a Tropical Storm Development.
get prepared and stay safe everybody
Mike
today typing from Sunny Skies, Wind on Zero, Ocean a Flat Plate here on the East
In Hurricane season, the wise prepare, the foolish play, and the politicians plan on how to put the relief funds to their use.
Mike, you did a nice job with Emily. Now we have to keep a watch down the highway and see what is coming. Not much right now.
Ta-tah!
HB
Mike, you did a nice job with Emily. Now we have to keep a watch down the highway and see what is coming. Not much right now.
Ta-tah!
HB
Emilyn is in reality still on Her almost same Powers, a good 30mphr winds, moving out on pen Sea.
should not hinder any flights to Miami, a bit of a Bumpy approach but nothing special.
yes, HB,
that Highway looks actually very nice and none of the longrange Models expects anything to form for the next 5 days on their Longrange Runs, so we should be save to catch da Sun this weekend all weeknd long.
here on the East Today:
32C,
a good 70% Hum,
wind a medium Breeze of 10-12Knots out of the ENE,
Offshore Sea on it's average of around 5ft,
clear Blue Skies all Day long, full sunny, no clouds around.
the radar of the Mona Passage shows very few clouds, so nothing to await from the Eastern Sides.
Happy Weekend
Mike
should not hinder any flights to Miami, a bit of a Bumpy approach but nothing special.
yes, HB,
that Highway looks actually very nice and none of the longrange Models expects anything to form for the next 5 days on their Longrange Runs, so we should be save to catch da Sun this weekend all weeknd long.
here on the East Today:
32C,
a good 70% Hum,
wind a medium Breeze of 10-12Knots out of the ENE,
Offshore Sea on it's average of around 5ft,
clear Blue Skies all Day long, full sunny, no clouds around.
the radar of the Mona Passage shows very few clouds, so nothing to await from the Eastern Sides.
Happy Weekend
Mike
Highway looks all nice and clear at this moment, nothing bad to expect for the next days.
the Tropicval Waves which approached the Atlantic Waters yesterday and today been on no Spin and not expected to develop anything, even that conditions on the Highway are up on Top for Development of what ever may occur out there, and those conditions will mostly stay up or even improve for the next 10 weeks, as usual this Time of the year.
last Year we had during the Peak Time period a nice ammount of Sal(Dry Saharan Air) and rough Windshear out there, as our Protecting Shield which hindered the numerous Waves to get too big, and we had quiet some lineups on the Highway without that they produced anything.
this year the conditions are a bit different, more favorable for Development and the favorable conditions started many weeks earlier than the Activity had started last Season.
bringing the various "Outlooks" in one Concense and counting in the Biggy of 2011, La Nina Conditions to be expected Perfect for the Storms during Our Peak Time, I guess we can await to see 5 Big Boys/Gals on da Highway, and October should be in case of Tropical Storms (East of the Islands the same as building within the Caribbean Sea and the Superhot Gulf of Mexico/over 30C on wide Areas for SST's Now) a quiet Interesting Active Month to watch.
the 2 tropical Waves approaching the Islands from the East the last 48 hrs did not interact with any Surface Pressure low, no movement, one dissappeared this morning Est of the Antilles, the other wandered all day long along Our South, failing to find the needed "Partner" to let it Rumble.
surface pressure around the Island is very fine, between 1013-1016mb,
here on the East this Eve we are still on the constant 1014mb.
soooo
let's have a Fun in the Sun Week on da Beach,
we had in PC today the calmest Day of the Month so far today,
pure sunny skies without a cloud in vicinity,
still no Rain or anything bothering on the Radar over the Mona Passage.
enjoy it all
Mike
the Tropicval Waves which approached the Atlantic Waters yesterday and today been on no Spin and not expected to develop anything, even that conditions on the Highway are up on Top for Development of what ever may occur out there, and those conditions will mostly stay up or even improve for the next 10 weeks, as usual this Time of the year.
last Year we had during the Peak Time period a nice ammount of Sal(Dry Saharan Air) and rough Windshear out there, as our Protecting Shield which hindered the numerous Waves to get too big, and we had quiet some lineups on the Highway without that they produced anything.
this year the conditions are a bit different, more favorable for Development and the favorable conditions started many weeks earlier than the Activity had started last Season.
bringing the various "Outlooks" in one Concense and counting in the Biggy of 2011, La Nina Conditions to be expected Perfect for the Storms during Our Peak Time, I guess we can await to see 5 Big Boys/Gals on da Highway, and October should be in case of Tropical Storms (East of the Islands the same as building within the Caribbean Sea and the Superhot Gulf of Mexico/over 30C on wide Areas for SST's Now) a quiet Interesting Active Month to watch.
the 2 tropical Waves approaching the Islands from the East the last 48 hrs did not interact with any Surface Pressure low, no movement, one dissappeared this morning Est of the Antilles, the other wandered all day long along Our South, failing to find the needed "Partner" to let it Rumble.
surface pressure around the Island is very fine, between 1013-1016mb,
here on the East this Eve we are still on the constant 1014mb.
soooo
let's have a Fun in the Sun Week on da Beach,
we had in PC today the calmest Day of the Month so far today,
pure sunny skies without a cloud in vicinity,
still no Rain or anything bothering on the Radar over the Mona Passage.
enjoy it all
Mike