hurricane season 2017

[MikeFisher]

all runs as expected, but i was wrong on one point, the Dry Air Layer in mid Atmosphere.
i expected it to be moistured/absorbed for a few days due the past Disturbances paving the hioghway out on the eatern highway half, but that was not fully the case, the mid Heights stay still on the dryer side out there, good for us, as it is at this point the only factor which keeps any TS-producing Wave from developing into a Storm.
the Disturbance mentioned yesterday is now running SSW of the Cap Verde Islands on the best available path,
means over hot Ocean Waters, very favorable Windshear and the actual steering winds would bring a Stom towards the Nortehrn Islands Of the Eastern Caribbean Belt.
by end of the weekend we should see the next official Storm out of this one, no less than a TD and no later tahn monday afternoon. the influence of the dry air on its development is the key factor on this system to decide what powers will show up.
it could easily dry out and go to heck, but by now it is developing Storm Structures well and quick.

and we have a smaller Storm brewing at our Doorstep, in the SE'er Caribbean Sea.
Hot Ocean Waters reaching to deep depths, lowest Windshear and No Dry Air in the lower and mid Atmosphere
should almost guarantee to develop this one further.
Steering winds will keep it away from our home soil and move it towards theYucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
it should become strong enough to push clouds and maybe winds and for sure wave action up to our Island, in addition to the already very rough Sea Conditions we actually have here at the SE.

by sunday/monday we will see what powers are up and running with the Disturbance out on the far Eastern Highway, we should also get an good idea about the Heading of the System/very likely Storm then.

time to start an other sunny, salty and beer sweetened WEEEEKEND.
have a great one y'all

MIke

 

[AlterEgo]

Brace for a truly terrible hurricane season

By Hana R. Alberts August 4, 2017

Batten down the hatches.

Thanks in part to warmer waters in the southern Atlantic Ocean, experts are predicting a worse-than-usual hurricane season.

The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on US soil is 62 percent, according to a new forecast out Friday morning from Colorado State’s Tropical Meteorology Project, which uses 60 years of data to assess current weather conditions.

On average, the probability of hurricanes making landfall is significantly less: 52 percent.

Though hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, its peak comes during the late summer and fall.

Other respected predictors are also bracing for more — and worse — storms.

“Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher),” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) most recent report.

That’s in contrast to an average season, which “produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes,” the NOAA says.

Five named storms — Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily — formed prior to Aug. 1. “This is slightly above normal,” says senior meteorologist and climatologist David Dilley, of Global Weather Oscillations, whose predictions for the 2017 season call it “the most dangerous in 12 years.”

“[We] meed to monitor the season very closely last half of August into early October.”

The Weather Company’s most updated research calls for an active Atlantic tropical season — one that’s higher than the region’s long-term averages from 1950 to 2016, but in line with a so-called recent “active period” from 1995 to the present.

Just because more hurricanes form in the Atlantic doesn’t necessarily mean they will hit US shores. For example, 1992 was labeled a below-average year, but that was the year Hurricane Andrew hit South Florida, resulting in 44 deaths and $25.3 billion in damages. It was the most destructive storm in the region’s history.

There is, however, cause for concern based on the new data.

“The more activity there is in a basin, the more likely there is to be a landfall,” says Michael Bell, associate professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State and co-author of its new forecast with Dr. Philip Klotzbach. “If you put more hurricanes out there, there is more of a probability of them hitting the Atlantic Coast.”

He adds, “Be prepared no matter what.”

http://nypost.com/2017/08/04/brace-...ebook&utm_medium=SocialFlow&sr_share=facebook

 

[bigbird]

Thanks AE but I will wait and see what Mike Fisher has to say...........

 

[william webster]

I would guess that was written for an American audience

 

[AlterEgo]

I would guess that was written for an American audience

Agreed, but the trigger is apparently the much warmer southern Atlantic, which might mean more hurricanes for Caribbean too.

 

[MikeFisher]

the updated Season Outlook did not tell much new, they revised their earlier this year published prognostics only slitghtly more upwards, specially in case of total number of storms, most likely due the already early season formed number of TDs and TSs.
we are on an active cycle since I am on this Island, since 1995, and this year so far doesn't show anything out of the Ordinary.
it is awaited that we run above the average of the 66years since 1950, and we do that and right on time to feed the expectations of the Stats.
1/4-max 1/3 of a Season's Storms pop up before mid August, then their vast mayority lines up til early/mid October.
and anyways, while Colorado State's Stats Pro's are the world's leading Data Collectors for Tropical Storm activities with the best available outlooks on a new season before it starts and then again with a corection every year on August 4th, they are still very "Young" on Data considering that our World's climate does not run in cycles as small as HUman Life Spans, this Planet runs on Mayor Plans in which HUmanity an the very short time of a HUman Life are completely insignificant.
they know since the late 90's for sure that the Atlantic Basin is running since the mid 90's on a above average active cycle.
as long as not a dozen monster ice bergs crunches to the Sea within the same month to turn all known climate upside down, so long the statistic guys in Colorado will not get anything new to announce than to forecast prior to a starting season that we will get a "average to above average season", because we are on a hefty cycle and some below average activity seasons happen once in a while but they are few.
and their big down point:
they only focus on the impact of Storms on the USA.
thank you Gentlemen in Colorado, but i give a ****tty on Storms havocking Luxury homes at the Hamptons.
their yearly forecast will not change until the acticve cycle already stopped and turned into a Hyper Active Devil's cycle or into a smoother lower activity cycle. once one of those trends gets clear on the Stats, they can announce the big news that we are now for the next estimated 25-150 years on a blah blah blah Cycle.
til then they barely find news to change their outlooks from prior years.

time to look on Our Own weekend and what to expect, it is in work and almost finished

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

the System in the Caribbean Sea, this morning located well south of Haiti,
stays on it's Westward Heading and should walk over the southern Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.
it is not a big one, as usual for things starting from scratch in the Caribbean Sea,
it will not become a full Storm within our range, IF it does in the first place.
the System out on the Eastern Highway stays a Biggie to watch.
it does not show any organization, yet, but that means nothing at this point.
i am unsure why development didn't show up, yet.
I think it has nothing to do with the dry mid Levels on the northern parts, they should negativey influence the growing up of a laready running power machine, not the organization of such to start it.
i think development is delayed because that System is forming on a very big Size, trying to organize Moisture and Thunderstorm activity over a very wide terrain of hundreds of miles together to One big something.
the administration of such wide area is for a stormy system the most difficult thing to achieve,
too often it takes too long and when finally the stuff seems to fit together they passed the deadline to run a power machiene on Time to keep upcoming interferences out.
this one is stil on time and could become anything from a Puff-into-thin-air to a Big BadAzz Wonderful-to-watch.
at the actual wide location and on it's next 24hrs path conditions are very fine to form up,
but hostile windshear is shifting more an more southwards over the Western Highway,
so i see only a chance to become a Storm by decreasing on size and become a fast growing Storm quickly,
as the forecasted downshifting hostile windshear together with the Dry Air on it's North
should bother any size of Storm significantly.
we will see how the forecasted Windshear finally really moves/pops up/changes location
and on what size the System get's oranization into a Storm to show.
til now it is the observation of the first stage of the birth of a Biggie,
but it also looks that it's planned size-to-become would require more time to get it together than the Wester Highway conditions are willing to allow.
we keep watching you ...

here on the E#ast the heavy winds and heavy Sea of the last 2 days are done,
we did not receive any rain at all anyways
and today we are again full sunny on low winds, Ocean calming down quickly.
let's start the Sunshine BBQ Weekend and enjoy it to the max,
'cause we never know how many of those we have left

Mike

 

[sanpedrogringo]

The Sunshine BBQ Weekend will have to start for me tomorrow, or I will be singing "Cooking In The Rain". We have had thunderstorms since 0800hrs. with tons of water. These are some ugly black clouds lurking over SPM for the last four hours.

 

[MikeFisher]

The Sunshine BBQ Weekend will have to start for me tomorrow, or I will be singing "Cooking In The Rain". We have had thunderstorms since 0800hrs. with tons of water. These are some ugly black clouds lurking over SPM for the last four hours.

hahaha,
so the outer powers of the Caribbean System already reached your soil.
for local weather conditions i can always only speak about my own surroundings, and even here on the southern tip of the East Shores we have mostly different rain/shine conditions in different very isolated small areas.
i can overview the happenings around the Cape only, as i live on the beach a few miles north of the Cape
and get all info from the Boats whioch are running off the Marina a few miles south of the Cape.
all that Bavaro area here and then further north Arena Gorda Beachesand Macao and Uvero Alto,
you would need a different weatherreport/forecast for each of those areas, and thats all within just a few miles on the Map, it is all together commonly named Punta Cana, shown on those fabuous weather apps as One Punta Cana with the same weather all over, lol.
now by Noon, our surroundings are still perfectly fine, wind completely down,waves nothing to mention on the beach and offshore Sea is back to normal activity.
my girls getting ready for their beach afternoon.
good luck for yours tomorrow, that bad weather south there moves fairly quick, should be over quick,
but you never know how far out the slow moving clouds in the Wake move and where they park their Butts to bring "Shade" for a longer while, lol.

MIke

 

[sanpedrogringo]

Señor Fisher, do you ever utilize the stormcarib.com website? They are always looking for "the latest local updates from the special hurricane correspondents on the islands of the Caribbean." It's a pretty decent resource. Still raining here in SPM, 10+ hours, but the grill is now lit. A little rain does not stop a man from grilling. Steaks, shrimp, and veggies are prepped. Blue Moon on ice.

 

[MikeFisher]

some lil rain can never stop me from anything.
o.k., maybe from riding the dirt bike and taking the car instead to get more bers from the colmado, lol.
we had a perfectly calm sunny day all day long over here, no real rain since a while aside of the every once in a while happening short night bursts.
no, i am not on stormcarib or such, no need for additional/extra internet time.
i always try to be online less, with not much success, yet.
enjoy your sunday BBQ
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

quick sunday update about those stormy thingies,
with not mucbh to tell as we are not in any expected danger.

the system in the now Western Caribbean, right of the shores of Honduras, runs already windpowers near TS Force and should become a TD or a Name the next 24-36hrs.
it will not become any danger for our Island, but it's heaviest Thunderstorm activities are on it's NE'ern Quadrant, so it should spawn out into that direction very far and reach Hispañola's SW and maybe SouthCentral with clouds.

the Mid Highway Monster wanted much more than it can handle, it tries a too wide of an area to pack together, that will fail.
it is running fully into dryer airmasses now and aside from short periods of lower windshear it will mainly run under strong to hostile windshear. any development should happen slowly, I doubt at this moment that it will manage anything.
Tracking points more and more Northwards, so it should pass the NE'ernmost Islands close but miss them on their NE.
by actual standings and outlooks it will not become anything we would need to watch out for.
so we watch an other couple days just in case, 'cause there's anyways nothing else to watch.

have a great sunny Beachy Sunday y'all.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

TS Franklin should become quiet a Biach in the western caribbean sea, he is a growing strong storm, compact and tough, but far away from our home, so not of concern.

the Disturbance mid Higway is now on the last 1000 miles towards the caribbean end of the highway.
it shows no signs of organization and runs actully under very harsh conditions,
i can not imagine any significant development for the next couple days.
it's Heading continues cklearly to point Not towards the Caribbean Islands,
that System, of what ever powers could pop up, will miss the Uslands and Us by a large and safe piece.

an other hot and calm week ahead of us, it is important to kepe the fridges stocked with that tasy cold stuff,
rehydration is key, it is good for your health, so don't let your Mrs tell you otherwise when you catch the next cold one from the fridge.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

TS Franklin is over Yucatan since early morning, loosing powers over Land.
it was a powerful quick rising TS, should be easily stable enough to survive the hrs over Land
and continue intothe Gulf of Mexico/crossing the Bay of Campeche
and gain powers again there. it's End is not near, yet.

the System on the Highway, now only about 750 mls East of the northernmost Islands,
get's feathered in a dry environment and under harsh Windshear.
the hostile windshear should continue til tomorrow and knock it down enough to not give it a chance to become anything of significance anywhere near of us.
also the Heading continues NW'wards, it will miss all Islands very far out, in a safe distance for whatsoever.

as the Dry Saharan Sand Layers mid Atmosphere shifted nicely southwards during the last week,
the Highway looks nicely protecting for us at this time. the "moistured" Gap mid Highway, cut by the actually observed system, should be closed back to dry in no time.
Windshear is the important factor which is difficult to impossible to forecast, it changes often and it can change very quick from one extreme to the other. at this moment for most parts of the Highway the Windshear is on our protecting side, on a level which is bothersome to developing Systems/Storms.
Windshear and dry air together are at the moment a nice security system for the Caribbean
to protect from anything East-Born to develop too big/powerful.
the waves should continue to leave the african continent heading towards western/caribbean pastures,
but for the next days we should not get anything of concern.

the Hot Phase for line ups of Tropical Waves over the Highway is on,
it is from now til at least mid October that we have to watch out daily for any new upcoming "Dots on a Map".

nothing bad in sight so far

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

nothing unexpected so far out there.
Franklin survived the walk over Yucatan very well and rised the powers very quick over the Bay of Campeche,
hitting the next target on the list as a Hurricane.

as small as it looks, do not discard the Disturbance from the East.
it is completely cut down on size, for this it shows organization, even actually for some more horus under hostile windshear and running all the time into dry Atmosphere.
the bothering Saharan Sand Layer will drop form formerly heavy down to just "light",
Windshear looks to become more and more favorable up to very favorable/barely existent during the next several days.
located now 200 mls NE of the northern Islands,
this Disturbance has still all possibilities to become a name to be scratched off the list.
no worries for our Isle, if it happens, then it will happen North of our Island, while it wanders straight NW'wards towards the Mid East of the american shores.
once it passed our area of influence it will have quiet great conditions for development.

for ourselfes, all looks fine so far.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

around Noon today the Disturbance from the far East benn on it's closest accounter to Caribbean Land
about 200mls NE of the northernmost Leeward Islands.
Heading is all the same, NW-Course,
so it will stay more than 200mls as the closest point to Puerto Rico
and much more on it's closest approach to Hispañola.
no heavy TS Action on the southern quadrants, nothing to look out for for our Paradise Soil.
Dry air is on the lower thickness now and qickly diminishing on the further path,
windshear is already since mid morning on the favorable side for Storm development and even prognosted to get even better,
with nice hot Sea Syrface temps on the way,
i would be surprised not to see a lower scale Storm to form late weekend/earlly next week somewhere near the Bahamas
on it's way to northern Fl/the Carolinas.
didn't check steering patterns over there for next week, so i dn't know what exact direction it will take once approaching the Bahamas, i am satisfied to see no indicator of any changes/steerings that could bring it towards our Island.

for this weekend no kinda danger awaited anywhere near our home

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

clear sunny skies with hottest temps, highest humidity and zero winds nor waves here on the East.
as awaited we have a fantastic summer hot weekend and it will stay exactly that way.
few ocassional very short showers/sprinkling at very isolated areas happened, nothing worth to write about.

the Disturbance from the far East passed us as awaited far to our North without any effects.
it also stays well north of the Bahamas and will turn towards NNW and then NW'wards,
running parallel to the US-East Shores, well out at Sea between the Mainland and Bermuda.
it should become a name very soon as cnditions for a quick development are still in favor of the Storm,
but it will not become any danger for any Land/Island.

right now we have the next wave leaving the african West Shores touchng down on Atlantic waters.
no powers to spot there, yet.
positioning ESE of the Cape Verde's could make it a westward runner, but the final real positioning of a center can vary a lot ones it is completely over Sea and brings itself on a Path.
for most part of the Highway conditions are against a Storm.
it has only the first 30-40hrs to become a power machine, as conditions onthe farest East are fine for Storm Development at this moment, but the mid Third of the Highway has already closed the gap opened by the last Disturbance, lower and mid Atmosphere show already a thick Saharan Dry Air Layer again out there.
what ever comes up til mid next week, it has to develop far east quickly up to powers to survive that mid third of the distance, only the last 800 miles towards the Islands would then allow again to gain forces, so we look well secured for a while.
dangerous would be disturbance coming up on the southern Lane, staring well south of the Cape Verde Islands,
there the air is nicely moistured on all levels, windshear low, waters hot,
but at this moment none of the formations over the African Continent look like they would point for a Southern approach of the Highway.

so long, enjoy perfect Hot Summer Island Conditions.
the bigest danger for our Health is DeHydration, a serious thing,
so keep those sweet greenies cold and ready, they are life safers so to speak.

Mike

 

[caribmike]

As long there is nothing bothering me next weekend when we are staying in Las Galeras, all is good.

 

[MikeFisher]

As long there is nothing bothering me next weekend when we are staying in Las Galeras, all is good.

if it runs on slow forward sped to become a big one you can spend the weekend in Las Galeras, as it will hit shortly afterwards, so all is perfectly fine for your weekend plans, Mike.

it maged the firstquarter of the highway run and does not look any bad at all.
conditions should stay on the favorable side to develop a Storm mid Highway after mid-week.
on the long range Directions outlook I would bring it on a pass very close to the northernmost Islands.
it is at the moment controlling a much too wide area to form a powerful storm out of it,
the conditions will not allow the time to do that, and the Disturbance seems to know that,
as it is already organizing powers on smaller sized areas.
heavy Thunderstorm activity get's concentrating on the SW Qyadrant of the wide area
and the strongest and by now best organized powers concentrate East close to the Center,
where i would expect that a Storm can form, which then would carry the heavy stuff on it's NE and Eastern side from a Center.
unless that changes, all looks good, as such will bring by my very questinable long range look on things
a strong TS on a close Pass NE of the northernmost Islands next weekend,
with the heavy powers concentrating on the NE and E of the Center, the side away from the Center.
at the half way point dry air could become a slow down factor, it has 48hrs to get the powers to fight later coming dry air.
windshear looks good for a Storm at this moment, the long range outlook has to be taken for no more than 2 days in advance on that. right now on the 2nd half of the Highway windshear would be strong for a Storm wandering towards the northern islands, but that factor can change any time and changes quiet often all the time,
we will count that in from wednesday or thursday on.

til now nothing lokks like messing up the next weekend.
for now we stay on our hot sunny humid calm wind low waves action conditions

Mike

 

[Natu]

I read in the news that there were some pretty bad floodings in Sierra Leone, Africa. Does that have anything to do with the tropical wave that just came out Africa a couple of days ago and is now on the atlantic ocean with some possibilities of formation??