Mr. Fisher. We know that Irma was unusual. Maria is going to test us in many ways.
i think it was you who asked in a prior post about powers of the storm going down over land/pr, to knock down the storm to Cat2 or 1 or such.
i don0t think such will happen on such big scale, not that much.
powering down, def yes, as by actual tracking the Storm will spend a very long time over Land, over the rough Terrain of PR, interrupting/Disturbing the Circulation on all sides.
buthere also comes the "small-Eye-Factor" into the game.
the smaller the eye, the less it get's knocked down, because the quicker it's Bands are rotating around the small center.
as i never observed such eye-size within such strong storm over land, other than the short walk over Dominica, it is hard to say how long teh storm resists befor powers start to go down.
a big factor is of course also the Forward speed. will it stya 10mph, will it speed up or slow down on approach?
without any prior taken Data to compare, just comparing to a big eye over land and adding mor resistance to the small eye storm powers, I would say Maria will only loose 15mphr of it's max Windforce, no more than 20mphr on a let's say 10hrs Time Frame over PR Land.
if the Storm sticks to the 10mphr forward speed, it should not have the time to completely stabilize and the intensify again before the touch with our land/mountains starts to interfere the circulation of powers.
the powers show as max winds when leaving PR on theNW should be the same powers it has when passing our Soil.
but such estimates are a tricky thing, it could go down or up completely different.
Mike
