hurricane season 2017

[davetuna]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CENTER OF MARIA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES

it sticks to it's Heading, kept almost all it's powers on the Land Walk.
time to draw some lines

Mike

got the wrong one there mike, ...down to 115mph.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 66.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

 

[jojo2130]

jojo

I hope you won't need boards.... but clear the outside of anything that can fly.

Were you there last week....most people are doing the same prep

Go to an App store online and load WhatsApp.... all of RD uses it

Hi William. Thank you for your advice, Yes, I was here last week for Irma but thats why I asked, The tracking etc looks about the same , I prepped for 3 days ahead and we hardly had a leaf knocked off a tree. I don't believe in taking chances, especially with my family, Just hard to get a handle on what to expect. I am about done anyway. Banks here are now closed and buildings are boarding up I was just told. Sorry I really dont use Smart phones much......my wife is on Whats App I may get her to look in later . Thanks again

 

[AlterEgo]

Bumping up the WhatsApp link, in case anyone missed it, as well as my earlier post.

let's see if this works.
if you click the link it should add you to our whatsapp group,
where we continue our stormwatch in case DR1 is down.

https://chat.whatsapp.com/Ld5SAuGk7ofCKCGdPjw2I5

Mike

IMPORTANT. PLEASE READ.

Let's keep any chit-chat out of this thread, and out of the WhatsApp thread. Here it just clogs up the forum, let's please let Mike Fisher keep updating us, without having to wade through other posts. No posts from CNN, FOX, etc.

On the WhatsApp thread, each time someone posts there it goes to everyone who has subscribed, and will kill their phone battery much quicker. If they have no power, this is a serious issue, and to some it may be their only way of keeping in touch to know what's happening around the country.

Thanks for your understanding and cooperation.

 

[MikeFisher]

wrong data

 

[rubio_higuey]

It looks it went quite west in PR in those past 3 hours

 

[MikeFisher]

sorry, wrong copy, yeah.
will move again on teh correct one.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

now the closest approach to Punta Cana will be just 45 miles off the beaches.
BUT now we are talking abotu a 115mphr Storm, the 180mph are gone.
will look on the new windfield an eye etc to see how far those winds etend toward the Island.

Mike

 

[rubio_higuey]

It looks it went quite west in PR in those past 3 hours

Those 3 hours gave it scary direction.. any explanation why could that be?

We can only hope it retakes its 305 degrees as mentioned by NHC at its 2 pm update

 

[MikeFisher]

too early for the windfield.
as the Storm is just about to leave PR now, the SW is still blocked by PR, thats why the H-Force circle is there not reaching out far. that should change once fully over water to come back to the original structure.
we will see that one soon and how far those winds reach.
we are here rigt on the egde to feel 'em gard or just a bit hard later on

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Those 3 hours gave it scary direction.. any explanation why could that be?

We can only hope it retakes its 305 degrees as mentioned by NHC at its 2 pm update

that 'cause it hit into walls, wandering over land is a bit stressy for such biach, throwing it's stromwinds into mountains to get them cut of by those mountains on mid levels and get them thrown back in it's face on the lower levels.
it did not really do such extreme position changes as a Storm, tat Storm was always there walking on, but it got it's Core/Center bounced around and thrown from one side to an other.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

it is still not running a well to spot Center.
the former hardcore inner been destroyed by PR, thanks neighbours.
the Biach should be struggling on it's walk over here.

Mike

 

[windeguy]

Current 2PM forecast has Maria going about 160 Km north of Cabarete.

 

[william webster]

can you see Cabrera Windy ??

or use Cabo Frances Viejo...

Cabrera 19.6 & 69.9

 

[davetuna]

Puerto Rico definitely taken one for the team there...........hope its not 'too' bad over there........looks like we are done here as far as any major worries......(sosua)........windy and rainy tomorrow.

 

[caribmike]

Rain and wind now in SD, power in my part is gone since 10 AM.

Idiots taking every oportunity for an apagon. There was nothing until now what would be a reason to shut down power. When it starts in serious inverter will be empty. Thanks there is an emergency generator in our building...

 

[MikeFisher]

electricity get's tricky, going down for fractions of a second. i gues we will be out soon.
Mike

 

[windeguy]

can you see Cabrera Windy ??

or use Cabo Frances Viejo...

Cabrera 19.6 & 69.9

The NHC doesn't have a perfect longitude for you, but Maria should be between 120 and 150 Km off shore tomorrow.

 

[william webster]

THis is from the Wunderground that Mike suggested.

if you know your position - it might help calculate....

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 18.4N 66.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
12H 21/0000Z 19.2N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.2N 70.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.4N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 28.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 31.5N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[william webster]

So from 69.0 to 70.1 the storm runs from 74 miles to 111 offshore

RSJ is 70.0

 

[MikeFisher]

The NHC doesn't have a perfect longitude for you, but Maria should be between 120 and 150 Km off shore tomorrow.

yes,
this kind of approach is bringing only Punta Cana north of the Cape/Cabo Engaño and the Samana Peninsula in the danger Zone.
the rest of the northshores will stay waaay fruther away.
approaching here the circulation will hit the Cordillera and get it's own crap thrown back in it's face,
hence somewhere E/NE of the Samana Peninsula the Storm should add some Deghrees onthe Compass and leave the Party.
this time the windy stuff is our problem on the Eastshore here from Cabo Engaño along all Punta cana up to the NW of Samana.
it will be quiet a blow this evening, keep the drinks cold and let CEPM keep the power on, so tomrow we can laugh about it and say bye bye Maria, se fue por otra playa.

Mike