The south side of the storm as one would expect is less vigorous than the north.
I have had reports from Nevis, which was about the same distance south of the centre of the storm as the current NHC prediction and they reported strong winds some trees down and the odd zinc sheet loose and not so much rain. Nothing dramatic like we see from those location close of on centre track. Equally Antigua and St Kitts which were closer to the eye but on the south side were also let off lightly from preliminary reports.
This is supported by recent Hurricane Hunter passes criss crossing the storm, as the attached link, where you can see the wind speeds detected away from the centre on the south side:
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/922/12MtFp.png
Wind fields do vary but this may help one assess the wind speed probabilities that have and are being encountered to populations south of the centre. Don't read this as gospel truth and it is for information. Remember interaction with land also has an effect. Make your own decisions based upon what the NHC and government bodies advise.
The storm has shifted a bit north on the NHC track and none of the reliable model mean tracks currently show it within 100km of the north shore.
I am hopeful that this will be much better for us than the poor souls in Barbuda, St Martin, Anguilla, St Barts, the BVI, St Thomas, St John and the other small islands closely impacted. Barbuda has not been heard of since 115mph in the airport with higher gusts and it went off line. The town of Codrington and much of the island is very low lying and a reported minimum 8ft storm surge would flood many areas. The small private resort at the south of the island with a small airstrip is particularly vulnerable as is the old K Club bought by Robert De Niro for development which has sand dunes of only several feet and land behind at a few feet only, and both may not be there in the same form when the storm has gone.
This will be devastating to a region that relies heavily on tourism and could do even worse as it continues its travels but hopefully not too much to DR.
